ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stratton23]

Looks like that due west motion was temporarily, now its starting more of a sharper NW movement

[starsfan65]

Looks like that due west motion was temporarily, now its starting more of a sharper NW movement

It is turning more NW?

[chaser1]

Beryl continues to appear deadly and outright angry in defiance of any TUTT or other level of southwesterly shear. Yet, I also see a more westerly component of motion taking place. Perhaps a few more hours of deepening but let's see if by morning, if a tilted vertical structure has begun in response.

[Craters]

Looks like that due west motion was temporarily, now its starting more of a sharper NW movement

It is turning more NW?

Maybe, but it looks more like a wobble to me at the moment.

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 its more WNW- NW now and not straight W, jamaica needs this to resume a westward movement ofher wise its going to be a real tough time in 36 hours

[DukeMu]

Beryl is generating storms, towers ahead of its path. Almost as if they were a battering ram against the shear.



It's looking stronger and more organized

[cheezyWXguy]

Dual hot towers racing around the eyewall now. Beryl just doesn’t quit.

[got ants?]

starsfan65 its more WNW- NW now and not straight W, jamaica needs this to resume a westward movement ofher wise its going to be a real tough time in 36 hours

36 hrs? More like noon tomorrow..

[Pas_Bon]

starsfan65 its more WNW- NW now and not straight W, jamaica needs this to resume a westward movement ofher wise its going to be a real tough time in 36 hours

I don’t see any scenario where Jamaica escapes her wrath. Jamaica is about to get pummeled.

[canebeard]

Looks like that due west motion was temporarily, now its starting more of a sharper NW movement

It is turning more NW?

Wobble, wobble, wobble. Tricoidal motion of eye. Wilma.

[CM2]

Dual hot towers racing around the eyewall now. Beryl just doesn’t quit.

Well, I think most Hurricane Models show Beryl fighting for its life right as it starts interacting with Jamaica, it completely falls apart, we'll see though. Even model runs even 36 hours ago show a similar dismemberment way before Jamacia so we'll see how well she fares. Seems the only thing we can trust in terms of a forecast is our eyes.

[Blown Away]

free image upload

Looking kinda ragged… Jamaica not avoiding Beryl…

[got ants?]

Did the eye just triple in size? Or a defect of the radar loop I'm watching?

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...28.00 INCHES

[Teban54]

It impresses me to no end that Beryl is still putting up dual rotating towers.

[HurricaneRyan]

Isabel would be proud of Beryl's endurance right now.

[GCANE]

Beryl may just miss the Yucatan all together.
The Fujiwhara effect from the BoC ULL will likely sling Beryl thru the Channel.
A resurgence of Beryl in the GoM is looking ever more likely.

[Stratton23]

GCANE what are you seeing that could suggest that? Every model shows landfal over the yucatan

[GCANE]

GCANE what are you seeing that could suggest that? Every model shows landfal over the yucatan

Looking at the latest Earthnullschool which uses GFS.
250mb wind forecast.
Can see the ULL in the BoC.
Last few runs clearly shows the Fuji interaction with a progressive shift in Berly's track to the NE and the ULL moving SW.
I am trying to think what happens if Beryl is significantly weaker after Jamacia.
Would the Fuji effect be more prominent or less with a weaker Beryl?

[Astromanía]

I don't think she is gonna make landfall on Jamaica but she will come very close