ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Beryl's infeed will significantly increase after Jamaica.
1) Will be picking up high TPW air from the EPAC thru Panama
2) Most significantly, will be over the great W Carib high OHC current.

[Hurrilurker]

A few Jamaica webcams to watch. As of right now appears to be mostly calm. But they're just starting to get the first convection blowing over and lighting strikes are becoming frequent.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... orama.html

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/jamaica/s ... b-cam.html

https://www.palladiumhotelgroup.com/en/webcams

[Blown Away]

Nudged the track a little S, the track line is offshore Jamaica now. This is the point where a couple wobble miles can be the difference between big impact and brush…

[GCANE]

Looks like conditions are forecast to be very good for Beryl to restrengthen significantly in the GoM.
Super saturated air, a high TPW feed from EPAC thru IoT, a 355K PV ring, poleward outflow channel from an ULL to the east.

[GCANE]

GFS is trending for the ridge to shift east when Beryl is in the GoM.
Looks like a TX landfall is getting very likely.
Right now has it Brownsville.
I expect to see it go further north on later runs.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Beryl is getting disrupted by shear and by dry air as it closes in to Jamaica. Beryl is still very powerful and dangerous storm with it's rain and wind.

Source - https://col.st/CFZq3

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

Looks like conditions are forecast to be very good for Beryl to restrengthen significantly in the GoM.
Super saturated air, a high TPW feed from EPAC thru IoT, a 355K PV ring, poleward outflow channel from an ULL to the east.

How much is left to take advantage of conditions is up for debate. The storm certainly maximized the approach to the islands. Jamaicans are on wobble alert today, the track is a bit south of the island, but too close to assume anything but a direct hit. I had drinks amongst other party favors at a bar on a beach outside of Negril early 90s, the bar was constructed from a 45 foot fishing boat that had washed up onshore in Gilbert and converted, brilliant move. There will be damage and deaths but Jamaicans will roll through this one and recovery will be fast, structures are actually very well built(yes there are shantys with tin roofs, roof blows off, find a piece of tin and you are back in business). Listen here to get an idea how its handled in Jamiaca https://nationwideradiojm.com/live_player.html. Yesterday, it was all about preps, the higher power, good vibes, and helping your neighbors(to an extent we never see in the United States).

[kevin]

Eye is nearly fully obscured on IR, but Dvorak IR also shows Beryl generating very deep convection and solidifying its -69C W-ring and even trying to close off a -75C ring from the north. I honestly have no clue what to make of this atm, could be 100 kt but also 130 kt. I guess we'll just have to wait for recon.

[kevin]

NOAA plane seems to have some issues to enter Beryl, just made 2 loops and had a weird 90+ kt SFMR measurement in a 30 - 40 kt region of the storm.

[Hammy]

Looks like there's still a mostly solid eye, but the shear's clearly having an effect on the south

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/CCEGbCf.png

Looks like there's still a mostly solid eye, but the shear's clearly having an effect on the south

And there’s a partial outer eyewall too, so looks like it’s also trying an EWRC again.

[StormChaser75]

[wxman57]

Beryl is quickly weakening under strong SW-W shear. Recon should make a pass through the center shortly. First G-IV mission was last evening. As a result, the hurricane models have shifted back to the south with final landfall not far from Tampico. That's encouraging for Texas. The weaker it is in the SW Gulf, the farther west it goes as it misses the connection to the trof. Come on, Beryl, weaken!

[kevin]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

[aspen]

Beryl is quickly weakening under strong SW-W shear. Recon should make a pass through the center shortly. First G-IV mission was last evening. As a result, the hurricane models have shifted back to the south with final landfall not far from Tampico. That's encouraging for Texas. The weaker it is in the SW Gulf, the farther west it goes as it misses the connection to the trof. Come on, Beryl, weaken!

Unfortunately it looks like it’s still 120-125 kt. This thing does not want to weaken.

[wxman57]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

Looks terrible on satellite imagery. Don't think I believe 125 kts. Shear is hitting it hard.

[kevin]

Also no clear double wind maxima in this recon pass. An EWRC could of course start any minute, but it doesn't look like there's one ongoing right now.

[kevin]

Beryl is angry, even colder cloud tops (below -80C) popping up in the new convective burst.

[WeatherBoy2000]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

Looks terrible on satellite imagery. Don't think I believe 125 kts. Shear is hitting it hard.

Recon so far seems to say otherwise, Beryl is an ugly storm that refuses to significantly weaken.