ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Time for Bones???

Wxman57 is in charge of that declaration.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

1. East of the Windward Islands (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for any development of this system while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the western tropical
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

[tolakram]

I am tired of the red, then orange, and now yellow covering up Beryl. Be gone!

[cycloneye]

A comeback.

[Tailgater33]

I think so Cyclone, at least for now it looks like a tiny storm might be wrapping up.

[Category5Kaiju]

Funny enough, there's like only 5-10 knots of deep layer shear over this system

Safe to say though, I think Beryl's major overperformance created a pretty unfavorable environment in its wake for this thing to really blow up otherwise

[Xyls]

A comeback.

https://i.imgur.com/NwSXWbx.gif

Can't classify it as a tropical depression, but can classify it as being tropical depressing.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1808448879324516852

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

1. East of the Windward Islands (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at
20 to 25 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions
of the Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[HurricaneBrain]

Development chances should be higher with current model support... EURO, GFS, and CMC have this thing closing off.

[jlauderdal]

Development chances should be higher with current model support... EURO, GFS, and CMC have this thing closing off.

Maybe they can raise it this afternoon after seeing this cycle.

[cycloneye]

Perking up a little bit.

[abajan]

Perking up a little bit.

https://i.imgur.com/R2Qv8ae.gif

This morning we got heavy showers, accompanied by tropical-storm-force gusts in some instances, in many parts of Barbados. We're currently under a flash-flood warning but that may soon be discontinued as the rains have abated. Recent satellite imagery shows most of the convection is now west of us.

[ChrisH-UK]

96l is rolling in to the Caribbean, looks to have decent convective activity and lightning. On the Barbados weather radar you can see the movement, alas I cant capture the radar well but i've added a link

Barbados Radar - https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/ ... oducts.php

Source - https://col.st/bOXZ0

[cycloneye]

Only 10% in 7 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL96):
A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it
moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph during
the next several days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan
Peninsula late this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the
Greater Antilles over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart