How strong was Beryl?

[aspen]

Since the pass took place in between advisories, the NHC didn’t report on Beryl’s true peak, so that’s gonna wait until post-season. So until then we’ll have to guess what it was and what they’ll go with.

I’m going to play it safe and say 930/150. The eye drop during the ~9:40z pass yesterday morning supported 930-931mb. Winds are trickier because it depends how valid those 165 kt SFMR and eyewall drop readings are, and how much the NHC trusts them. A conservative blend of FL conversions and SFMR yields 150 kt, which I think is what the NHC will go with. Right around Felix’s peak (which, if my memory serves right, also had some suspect 160kt+ readings and a fairly high Cat 5 pressure).

I think it’s possible Beryl could’ve truly peaked at 926-929mbar and 155 kt an hour or two earlier, since the pressure was slightly rising between passes, indicating it could’ve peaked a little before recon got there. But I don’t think the NHC will extrapolate the peak intensity that much in post.

[kevin]

I think the NHC will go with 930mb/150kt. The eye dropsonde supports 930 mb. The most extreme pass was 164 kt FL and 165 kt SFMR. At 700mb the conversion factor for FL winds is 0.87 so this gives (164*0.87+165)/2 = 154 kt when blended with the same weight. However, due to the discrepancy between FL and SFMR I expect the NHC to put more weight into the FL measurement (together with the fact that the subsequent passes 'only' supported 145 kt) and go with 150 kt.

There might be a chance that Beryl was 155 kt at some point, but tbh I personally think recon arrived around its peak. Using the 2mb/hr deepening rate in between recon there could've theoretically been a minimum pressure of 925 - 930 mb in between the flights. But I expect that the true effect was less pronounced, probably 928mb or something with a toss-up between 150 and 155 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

I agree with the above posts and would also go 150kts/930mb. And here I was thinking that HMON run showing 150kts was out to lunch

[CrazyC83]

I'll look into it in a few days, but I agree with a peak intensity of 150 kt. Since there was likely a bit of a gap in coverage, I'd estimate the minimum pressure was 929 mb.