ATL: BERYL - Models

[Stratton23]

still uncertaint on that, I think from tampico up to corpus needs to watch out for a landfall point, the cone does include that are as well

[kevin]

06z ICON, even further east.

[kevin]

06z GFS sharp turn north before landfall near Corpus Christi as a 968 mb hurricane. Very complex setup.

[WeatherCat]

06z GFS sharp turn north before landfall near Corpus Christi as a 968 mb hurricane. Very complex setup.

https://i.imgur.com/7Z5ni9T.png

Not crazy about this 06Z GFS. What is hitting east of Galveston around July 10 … Is that 96L or a phantom storm?

[kevin]

06z GFS sharp turn north before landfall near Corpus Christi as a 968 mb hurricane. Very complex setup.

https://i.imgur.com/7Z5ni9T.png

Not crazy about this 06Z GFS. What is hitting east of Galveston around July 10 … Is that 96L or a phantom storm?

Looks like it forms from remnants of 96L if you use the cyclonic vorticity data from GFS.

[Frank P]

H126 and moving NNW/NW as it approaches the TX coast

[jaguars_22]

Houston and Galveston is still very much in play! The gfs has been too weak on initialization of beryl… stronger storm turns more and misses mid Texas coast to make landfall in galveston

[ROCK]

looks like a morning N NW trend is happening. 06Z GFS showed something similar but a bit further south. That pressure is pretty low.

[ROCK]

Houston and Galveston is still very much in play! The gfs has been too weak on initialization of beryl… stronger storm turns more and misses mid Texas coast to make landfall in Galveston

just a few runs showing this right shift...now if we get 12Z runs jumping today then I would agree. I want to see how much of the Yuc it bites off before getting into the GOM.

[Frank P]

The ICON has been relatively consistent overall (albeit with a few perturbations, and which model doesn’t have them) with an upper TX/west LA hit… guess we’ll find out what happens, could be a bust or a good win the the ICON..

[Tireman4]

Houston and Galveston is still very much in play! The gfs has been too weak on initialization of beryl… stronger storm turns more and misses mid Texas coast to make landfall in Galveston

just a few runs showing this right shift...now if we get 12Z runs jumping today then I would agree. I want to see how much of the Yuc it bites off before getting into the GOM.

But the Navy sir? I liked the loopy loop thingy.

From the HGX NWS this morning at 5:58 am

From HGX NWS

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Hurricane Beryl continues to work its way westward across the Caribbean
Sea. The official National Hurricane Center forecast has Beryl crossing
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Friday night and then working its
way toward a landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday
evening/night. Keep updated with the latest National Hurricane Center
advisories on Beryl as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity
forecast could lead to significant changes in our area forecast.

[3090]

Houston and Galveston is still very much in play! The gfs has been too weak on initialization of beryl… stronger storm turns more and misses mid Texas coast to make landfall in galveston

And so has the EURO…

[3090]

The ICON has been relatively consistent overall (albeit with a few perturbations, and which model doesn’t have them) with an upper TX/west LA hit… guess we’ll find out what happens, could be a bust or a good win the the ICON..

The ICON from this past Saturday has been pretty much steadfast with a upper Texas coast to Texas/La border landfall.

At this point in time I think that is a bit extreme. But I for sure would not rule out a mid Texas coast landfall.

[underthwx]

Only thing I'm certain of is the name of the cyclone....which model do yall have the most faith in?...

[ScottNAtlanta]

The HWRF is the only model that is initializing Beryl correctly, and it is showing run consistency the last several runs. It looks to landfall in the Houston/Galveston area with a significant hurricane. It also spends the least amount of time over the Yucatan.

[tolakram]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm still not sold on a Mexico final landfall point. Beryl remaining stronger than normal makes me think this system has a better chance to make landfall in TX. Hope I'm wrong as I really don't want to be dealing with this storm in a few days.

The 6z GFS shifting northeastward closer to the ICON doesn't make me feel very good either.

[ROCK]

Interesting to see the HWRF and HMON 06Z runs being the exact opposite. One into MX and the other into Mid-upper Tx coast. Doesn't make for consistency. Obviously HMON is quicker and B eats a huge chunk of the Yuc...

[underthwx]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Good morning!....can you elaborate on your thoughts about Beryl?...

[ROCK]

Only thing I'm certain of is the name of the cyclone....which model do yall have the most faith in?...

A blend of all of them..