ATL: BERYL - Models

[underthwx]

Only thing I'm certain of is the name of the cyclone....which model do yall have the most faith in?...

A blend of all of them..

Lol....thx Rock....how are u btw?

[tolakram]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Good morning!....can you elaborate on your thoughts about Beryl?...

BLEND

[underthwx]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Good morning!....can you elaborate on your thoughts about Beryl?...

BLEND

Thankyou....

[ScottNAtlanta]

Slightly OT...has anyone else been having trouble getting images to upload with IMGUR? Is there an alternative to use?

[Clearcloudz]

12Z model Tracks

The stronger the system is in the gulf of Mexico the faster it will turn north. Entire Texas coast should be on alert.

[3090]

This morning’s 06Z GEFS and EPS model runs are NOT trending the way Texas would like to see. And the trends are continuing in that direction. We shall see what these runs look like in the 12Z runs.

[tolakram]

Slightly OT...has anyone else been having trouble getting images to upload with IMGUR? Is there an alternative to use?

Tropical tidbits GIF generator seems to be having issues, GIF files corrupt. Is that what you mean?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting on intensity. Several don't weaken it much

[ScottNAtlanta]

Slightly OT...has anyone else been having trouble getting images to upload with IMGUR? Is there an alternative to use?

Tropical tidbits GIF generator seems to be having issues, GIF files corrupt. Is that what you mean?

Yeah, its a gif, but it plays fine on my pc when I check it. Imgur uploads it then errors out

[tolakram]

Slightly OT...has anyone else been having trouble getting images to upload with IMGUR? Is there an alternative to use?

Tropical tidbits GIF generator seems to be having issues, GIF files corrupt. Is that what you mean?

Yeah, its a gif, but it plays fine on my pc when I check it. Imgur uploads it then errors out

same

[HoustonFrog]

Looks like GFS a little south, more like South Padre or N Mexico this run.

Basically have GFS and CMC consistently together showing N Mexico or S Padre area while the ICON and HWRF show somewhere between Galveston and TX/LA border. Euro outlier pretty far south in mid Mexico although it's trending north slightly.

Euro, GFS going weaker

CMC and HWRF stronger

ICON super consistent

Edit: NAVGEM and JMA both like the ~Galveston track

Updating the above:
I'd say you now have the Euro and CMC together still favoring the North Mexico solution.

GFS has trended north, now looking more like a Corpus or Padre Island storm, mid Texas coast.

ICON is a rock showing that Galveston to TX/LA border. HWRF somewhat consistently showing somewhere between Padre/Corpus and Galveston.

If you split the middle, it's GFS showing a south Texas landfall.

[Clearcloudz]

6Z EURO ensembles are showing stronger members turning more north and weaker members into Mexico.

[ROCK]

6Z EURO ensembles are showing stronger members turning more north and weaker members into Mexico.

https://i.imgur.com/lVwlcmB.gif

makes sense as a stronger storm reacts more to the upper level steering vs a weaker one. Joe B alluded to this yesterday.

[Woofde]

Stronger ensembles go further north.

[Clearcloudz]

6Z GFS Ensembles also paint the same picture as the EURO ensembles

[Steve]

yeah, so it's going to be how ripped up is going to be from the shear and also interaction with the Yucatan. Sometimes things go the other way with patterns, but generally the stronger storms want to move poleward.

[jabman98]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Isn't Corpus already in the cone? Or at least close?

As strong as Beryl seems to be remaining I agree that all of the Texas coast needs to be watching. Models sure seem to be picking up on that possibility.

[ROCK]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Isn't Corpus already in the cone? Or at least close?

As strong as Beryl seems to be remaining I agree that all of the Texas coast needs to be watching. Models sure seem to be picking up on that possibility.

they are hinting at it but give models some 12z 18z and 0z runs tonight...

[Clearcloudz]

I'm becoming convinced Corpus Christi is in the mix, not convinced it goes further north. Yet.

Isn't Corpus already in the cone? Or at least close?

As strong as Beryl seems to be remaining I agree that all of the Texas coast needs to be watching. Models sure seem to be picking up on that possibility.

they are hinting at it but give models some 12z 18z and 0z runs tonight...

I'm just a amateur model watcher but I will make a prediction that we will be seeing more northward shifts on the models in the next few runs.

[TallyTracker]

6Z EURO ensembles are showing stronger members turning more north and weaker members into Mexico.

https://i.imgur.com/lVwlcmB.gif

The stronger options are the ones that barely hit the Yucatan while the weaker ones spend more time over land and emerge weak into the Gulf. The Yucatan took Dean from a Cat 5 to minimal Cat 1 after crossing the breadth of the peninsula. Land interaction is going to be key to Beryl’s intensity in the Gulf and ability to rebound in potentially favorable conditions after.