ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner

7/3/24 AM Beryl
Powerful hurricane Beryl heading for Jamaica where significant impacts are imminent.
Hurricane watch for the eastern Yucatán and warning for the Cayman Islands.
Beryl is still a strong hurricane this morning but shear is impacting the hurricane and gradual weakening is occurring.
There have been so significant changes overnight with track guidance with questions still on how Beryl responds to a trough over the center plains this weekend once in the Gulf of Mexico…some of this will have to do with how strong Beryl is or becomes in the Gulf so there remain uncertainty. There are some indications this morning that the expected wind shear in the Gulf may be weaker allowing Beryl to become a bit stronger and we will need to watch for any trend here in the next few days.
Persons and interests in the western Gulf should be monitoring forecast closely for any changes into late this week.
Persons along the S TX coast south of Kingsville need to have their hurricane plan in place and be ready to enact that plan by this Friday.

[Bimms]

Beryl is creating her own ecosystem and atmospheric environment. At this point anything you think or predict she will do, just go with the opposite. I have a strong feeling she's going to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and ride north. That's not based on science, just my opinion based on what we have been seeing. Look for the models to trend north and also for the storm to stay stronger than suggested. So far she seems to treat shear as a morning cup of coffee and is just doing what she wants, regardless of her environment. There will be case studies on this once it's all said and done.

[tropicwatch]

Youtube channel with multiple web cams being shown from Jamaica..live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A

Probably going to say goodbye to some of those boats in Kingston Harbour.

[underthwx]

Beryl is creating her own ecosystem and atmospheric environment. At this point anything you think or predict she will do, just go with the opposite. I have a strong feeling she's going to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and ride north. That's not based on science, just my opinion based on what we have been seeing. Look for the models to trend north and also for the storm to stay stronger than suggested. So far she seems to treat shear as a morning cup of coffee and is just doing what she wants, regardless of her environment. There will be case studies on this once it's all said and done.

Which is reason enuff to stay informed and prepared....jus like every season...I think the NHC has a tremendously difficult task at hand with Beryl....lots of uncertainty and questions...the answers will come in Beryls time...

[NDG]

Still looks good underneath the high cloud canopy as of 2 hours ago.

[aspen]

Pressure up a little on this pass. Winds in the NE quad are lower too. Probably down to 115-120 kt.

[tolakram]

Mid level loop.

[kevin]

Pressure up a little on this pass. Winds in the NE quad are lower too. Probably down to 115-120 kt.

Which pass are you referring to? AF306 is now at the eye and has sampled the weaker SW quad, NE will be in the next update. Pressure does look a little higher 953.9 mb with 12 kt so probably 953 mb, up from 952 mb. I do agree that Beryl is probably down to 120 kt now.

[Michele B]

latest loop
https://i.imgur.com/gQzx7wh.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks quite robust/healthy to me

No visible eye, though

[underthwx]

Mid level loop.

https://i.imgur.com/8ZKDTJZ.gif

Is the yellow drier air?....or the Sahara dust I heard about?...

[Sciencerocks]

[Michele B]

Beryl is creating her own ecosystem and atmospheric environment. At this point anything you think or predict she will do, just go with the opposite. I have a strong feeling she's going to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and ride north. That's not based on science, just my opinion based on what we have been seeing. Look for the models to trend north and also for the storm to stay stronger than suggested. So far she seems to treat shear as a morning cup of coffee and is just doing what she wants, regardless of her environment. There will be case studies on this once it's all said and done.

Nothing scientific, you understand, but it seems to me that the impact of "shear" on her from yesterday - "nudged" her a little to the north. I can see her not spending much time over the peninsula, impeding the land's interaction from lessening her strength.

In turn, that makes US landfall more possibile. Somewhere mid TX to LA TX border.

I don't have fancy/expensive computer programs, etc. Just looking at her behavior and the steering patterns she's encountered up to now and how it's impacted her.

[tolakram]

Mid level loop.

https://i.imgur.com/8ZKDTJZ.gif

Is the yellow drier air?....or the Sahara dust I heard about?...

Yellow is drier, but I wouldn't read much into it as far as dust or storm strength goes. I don't see any dust on the visible.

[kevin]

The highest SFMR measured in the last 2 hours is 123 kt and the last pass found 130 kt FL. A blend supports 120 kt. Pressure is up 2 mb compared to the last pass and since the dropsonde then found 952 mb I estimate the current intensity to be 954mb/120kt.

[Woofde]

Impact with Jamaica coming very soon. Wobble watching to see exactly how much and where it goes over the island. The highest mountains are on the eastern tip at around 1500 meters. The rest are a little shorter ~900 meters or so.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The highest SFMR measured in the last 2 hours is 123 kt and the last pass found 130 kt FL. A blend supports 120 kt. Pressure is up 2 mb compared to the last pass and since the dropsonde then found 952 mb I estimate the current intensity to be 954mb/120kt.

Yeah, I agree with your assessment of 120 knots. The long-expected wind down is finally beginning in earnest.

[Travorum]

Latest VDM, shows a closed eyewall again.

228
URNT12 KNHC 031414
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/13:48:20Z
B. 16.90 deg N 075.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 955 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 98 kt
I. 221 deg 8 nm 13:46:00Z
J. 322 deg 76 kt
K. 222 deg 12 nm 13:45:00Z
L. 107 kt
M. 045 deg 12 nm 13:52:00Z
N. 135 deg 130 kt
O. 045 deg 12 nm 13:52:00Z
P. 13 C / 3055 m
Q. 20 C / 3044 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1402A BERYL OB 21
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 235 / 10 NM 12:44:30Z
LST WND 013 METERS 080 DEGREES AT 09KTS
;

[GCANE]

70mm/hr rain rate!
Good chance Beryl will recover quickly.
Core is hot from latent heating

[tolakram]

[Kazmit]

The worst of the weather for Kingston will be after the closest approach. The winds will shift around to the south, which will be onshore and drive the most storm surge. This will also be the stronger side of Beryl.