ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Current forward motion suggests the center will pass just south of the Jamaican coast. Unfortunately looks like Portland Point will get the brunt of the eyewall and surge as it passes to the south.

It also looks like Beryl's center will miss the higher elevations, rendering her land interaction minimal in terms of weakening her.

[kevin]

11am EDT update, Beryl kept at 125 kt with a pressure of 954 mb.

401
WTNT42 KNHC 031447
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Teban54]

Current forward motion suggests the center will pass just south of the Jamaican coast. Unfortunately looks like Portland Point will get the brunt of the eyewall and surge as it passes to the south.

It also looks like Beryl's center will miss the higher elevations, rendering her land interaction minimal in terms of weakening her.

That may be close to the worst-case scenario for everyone, all things considered. Parts of Jamaica get the eyewall, other parts get storm surge, and Beryl isn't weakened enough to spare the Gulf Coast with a strong hurricane (either the US or Mexico, but the former is more likely if Beryl remains strong).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[StormChaser75]

[ROCK]

might miss the higher elevations but every wobble counts. Looks like from that loop its going cut the island in half.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Impact with Jamaica coming very soon. Wobble watching to see exactly how much and where it goes over the island. The highest mountains are on the eastern tip at around 1500 meters. The rest are a little shorter ~900 meters or so.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240703/82e7cb24ee9190cf091e1c061b90f862.jpg

Mountains should push the eye a bit further south, correct? The downslope of the winds coming south over the Blue Mountains could cause a bit of haoc in the storm but I wouldnt expect too much.

[mpic]

Beryl is creating her own ecosystem and atmospheric environment. At this point anything you think or predict she will do, just go with the opposite. I have a strong feeling she's going to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and ride north. That's not based on science, just my opinion based on what we have been seeing. Look for the models to trend north and also for the storm to stay stronger than suggested. So far she seems to treat shear as a morning cup of coffee and is just doing what she wants, regardless of her environment. There will be case studies on this once it's all said and done.

Thank you for the disclaimer...lots of PTSD here in the Houston area from Harvey.

[Pipelines182]

Current forward motion suggests the center will pass just south of the Jamaican coast. Unfortunately looks like Portland Point will get the brunt of the eyewall and surge as it passes to the south.

It also looks like Beryl's center will miss the higher elevations, rendering her land interaction minimal in terms of weakening her.

That may be close to the worst-case scenario for everyone, all things considered. Parts of Jamaica get the eyewall, other parts get storm surge, and Beryl isn't weakened enough to spare the Gulf Coast with a strong hurricane (either the US or Mexico, but the former is more likely if Beryl remains strong).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

This is definitely the worst case scenario for the reasons you mentioned plus the north side of Beryl is significantly, almost laughably, stronger than the south side. The south side of Jamaica, specifically the southeast end, is far more populated than any other side. This is also the most geographically storm surge prone part of the island. Taking into account all those factors, Beryl brushing the southern side of the island will maximize the surge over the most populated areas causing the most damage out of any possible track it could take over Jamaica. Sometimes a technical landfall isn't the worst case scenario.

I will say, all wobbles count right now and with the wind field being so narrow a slight jog south could make a massive difference. Something that was so amazing in Hurricane Michael was the massive difference in damage around Panama City over just 5 miles.

[mpic]

Looking at the live cams right now from Jamaica and can't help but being thankful for the HH, radar, meteorologists who spend countless hours to give us updates. No wonder so many people perished in the "old days" when a hurricane hit with very little warning.

[Tireman4]

Beryl is creating her own ecosystem and atmospheric environment. At this point anything you think or predict she will do, just go with the opposite. I have a strong feeling she's going to skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and ride north. That's not based on science, just my opinion based on what we have been seeing. Look for the models to trend north and also for the storm to stay stronger than suggested. So far she seems to treat shear as a morning cup of coffee and is just doing what she wants, regardless of her environment. There will be case studies on this once it's all said and done.

Thank you for the disclaimer...lots of PTSD here in the Houston area from Harvey.

Also too, with Harvey, he was a mid-level Tropical Storm by the time he arrived here. It is a clear reason why landfalling tropical systems can/do and sometimes will affect areas many miles from their landfall.

[Pipelines182]

Looking at the live cams right now from Jamaica and can't help but being thankful for the HH, radar, meteorologists who spend countless hours to give us updates. No wonder so many people perished in the "old days" when a hurricane hit with very little warning.

Can you share a link to the live cams you're watching?

[mpic]

https://www.youtube.com/live/h0E93nmFO1A?si=YDw98iW7ievTn7X7

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1808523813468205432

[mpic]

https://www.youtube.com/live/h0E93nmFO1A?si=YDw98iW7ievTn7X7

It automatically switches to different cams with some ads every once in awhile

[Teban54]

Satellite view of damage from presumably Carriacou:
 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1808373398889705881

[LARanger]

https://www.youtube.com/live/h0E93nmFO1A?si=YDw98iW7ievTn7X7

It automatically switches to different cams with some ads every once in awhile

The Youtube channel has the main one that switches, plus some other running livestreams that are the specific views being switched, e.g. this Kingston harbor view:

https://www.youtube.com/live/-HSV-eFY2BU

[jasons2k]

My Beryl text to F&F:

There are really two scenarios. A weaker Beryl heads WNW into Mexico. A stronger Beryl gets stronger and picked-up by a secondary trough in the Midwestern US and this pulls Beryl more NW then NNW into the Texas coast. We don't know yet what's going to happen. A lot depends on how strong Beryl remains after interacting with Jamaica and the Yucatan. Stronger storms tend to ride the right or northern side of the track especially when they interact with troughs.

The NHC's official track is just splitting the difference between the two scenarios. They openly admit this in the 11am discussion. It's still too early to know for certain.

Interestingly, at 11am the cone shifted northward a bit to include Matagorda and for the first time they have Beryl restrengthening as a hurricane again over the gulf.

[sikkar]

Holding steady nicely or even deepening.

[MGC]

Looks to me that the core of Beryl will pass just south of Jamaica. Surprised Beryl is fighting off the shear as well as the hurricane is. I was expecting a cat-3 near Jamaica. With a stronger hurricane I am concerned the GFS solution might come to pass......MGC

[jaguars_22]

Latest gfs is good news! Much weaker!
Looking at the satellite I’m sure it’s probably back up to 970 mb or higher… what you think?