ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

It seems like land interaction is somehow improving Beryl. The full Wring is back and the eye is starting to clear on IR. I've given up on trying to understand this storm.

[aspen]

So is Beryl stronger than models forecasted at this point?

Oh yeah. Well above what it was supposed to be.

The hurricane models at least have had it as a major near Cuba for the last two days or so, once they properly initialized it. For a time they had the same issues at the globals, initializing Beryl as a Cat 1/2 instead of a Cat 3-5.

[Iceresistance]

Didn't we see this before back in June where Beryl was able to wrap upshear and strengthened to the earliest C4 hurricane on record?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif

What does this show?

Beryl wrapping upshear
(Sorry for late reply, I had a college class in the summer)

[kevin]

Recon is on its way and should be there in about 2 hours.

[Tireman4]

Didn't we see this before back in June where Beryl was able to wrap upshear and strengthened to the earliest C4 hurricane on record?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif

What does this show?

Beryl wrapping upshear
(Sorry for late reply, I had a college class in the summer)

That is right. You start met program at the University of Oklahoma this Fall, right?

[kevin]

Latest IR

[JediChick]

Latest IR

https://i.imgur.com/JRk29Z6.jpeg

Looks like a demon peeking out from the eye...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hurricanes that reach Category 5 status always seem to have a way with getting what they want in terms of intensity haha. They defy logic. I thought Beryl was done for, but it was just completing an EWRC.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Pretty clear that if Beryl gives you the choice to go over/under on a certain intensity at any given point in your forecast, 99% of the time you need to choose the over.

I don't know exactly what is off about the magnitude, the direction, and the level of the modeled shear, but it's clear that this storm is either in a brief reprieve from said shear (which doesn't really make much sense) or that the entire depiction of the effects of said shear are overblown. You can clearly see the TUTT itself weakening in satellite loops and cirrus outflow expanding in all directions, the modeled low-level shear doesn't appear to be having much of an effect (and may actually be helping in sustain consistent VHTs around the core through the same sort of dynamics that promote supercellular convection), and the more stable mid-levels have allowed for the structure to continuously realign itself and maintain an impressive structure.

There's a variety of possible explanations for it, ranging from model resolution failing to capture the true strength of Beryl's vortex, the hurricane models too reliant upon land interaction to appreciably weaken the core before then allowing the shear to pump dry air in from the west, to a simple failing of models to accurately depict the shear and its magnitude over the core of the storm. Whatever the true reason is, it's clear that Beryl isn't going away anytime soon. These sorts of storms at this intensity tend to modify their surrounding environment for their own benefit, after all.

[Teban54]

Pretty clear that if Beryl gives you the choice to go over/under on a certain intensity at any given point in your forecast, 99% of the time you need to choose the over.

I don't know exactly what is off about the magnitude, the direction, and the level of the modeled shear, but it's clear that this storm is either in a brief reprieve from said shear (which doesn't really make much sense) or that the entire depiction of the effects of said shear are overblown. You can clearly see the TUTT itself weakening in satellite loops and cirrus outflow expanding in all directions, the modeled low-level shear doesn't appear to be having much of an effect (and may actually be helping in sustain consistent VHTs around the core through the same sort of dynamics that promote supercellular convection), and the more stable mid-levels have allowed for the structure to continuously realign itself and maintain an impressive structure.

There's a variety of possible explanations for it, ranging from model resolution failing to capture the true strength of Beryl's vortex, the hurricane models too reliant upon land interaction to appreciably weaken the core before then allowing the shear to pump dry air in from the west, to a simple failing of models to accurately depict the shear and its magnitude over the core of the storm. Whatever the true reason is, it's clear that Beryl isn't going away anytime soon. These sorts of storms at this intensity tend to modify their surrounding environment for their own benefit, after all.

Beryl also feels like the opposite of Lee last year, another Cat 5 that was heavily damaged by shear and unable to recover past a Cat 3. Models completely failed to show the shear that prevented Lee from reaching the 155-160 kt intensities being forecast, whereas this time most models kept trying to destroy Beryl with 20+ kts of shear only for it to keep defying them.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1808592972780613776

[Frank P]

That north eyewall is raking the southern coast... looks to me like she took a wobble to the west at the last minute, or the eye could have made landfall...amazing

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wind shear definitely appears to be abating over the system. The CDO is expanding, and convection continues to wrap around the eye. OHC is as high as ever.

[Pipelines182]

I've always thought that an EWRC occurred when concentric eye walls formed and one or the other became dominate but there's been no sign of Beryl ever having two eyewalls, or two wind maxes on recon passes, yet there's been several references of it having gone through an EWRC several times. Every time it weakened it appeared to me it was due to shear/dry air that disrupted the core, is it still called an EWRC when it recovers?

[Woofde]

Usually weakening storms don't start clearing out eyes... I'm not sure what to think. Definitely a solid northward element. It looks like its going to go over the moderate sized mountains in the West. I can't imagine that not weakening Beryl, but it's truly shown to be quite resilient, so we'll see.

[zzzh]

I've always thought that an EWRC occurred when concentric eye walls formed and one or the other became dominate but there's been no sign of Beryl ever having two eyewalls, or two wind maxes on recon passes, yet there's been several references of it having gone through an EWRC several times. Every time it weakened it appeared to me it was due to shear/dry air that disrupted the core, is it still called an EWRC when it recovers?

It had 2 EWRCs, you can see it through microwave images.

[Kazmit]

Anyone have a link to the Cuban radar? I have suspicion that the eyewall will come ashore in Treasure Beach next.

[Teban54]

Anyone have a link to the Cuban radar? I have suspicion that the eyewall will come ashore in Treasure Beach next.

Brian McNoldy has an exhaustive list of auto-updating GIFs of radars for each storm, including both live ones and archives:
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

[ColdFusion]

The official forecast has it remaining a major for at least the next 15 hours, so i dont think the current intensity is any kind of surprise to anyone?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just an fyi...our current ACE is 23.7 which would be the avg ACE for August 23rd