ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

yeah there was little doubt Beryl wouldnt be able to plow through the tutt. of course there would some draw back and interactions but it would win out. what I didnt see coming was part of the tutt cutting on.

figured it would take some time to recover.

but here we are.

I imagined earlier like late last night in a post about the height of the system having an effect on is battle with the wind shear more or less both being in the same ballfield lets say?

[3090]

Also, there is the ULL forming off the Gulf-Coast of FL.
My thought is this will Fujiwhara with Beryl and give Beryl a shift in track, i.e. a stronger north component.

This is interesting!!

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

yeah there was little doubt Beryl wouldnt be able to plow through the tutt. of course there would some draw back and interactions but it would win out. what I didnt see coming was part of the tutt cutting on.

figured it would take some time to recover.

but here we are.

The TUTT never had any strong 355K PVS signature. It was a dud from the start

yeppers.. I like to say it had no back up..

[Javlin]

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

yeah there was little doubt Beryl wouldnt be able to plow through the tutt. of course there would some draw back and interactions but it would win out. what I didnt see coming was part of the tutt cutting on.

figured it would take some time to recover.

but here we are.

The TUTT never had any strong 355K PVS signature. It was a dud from the start

So not having a strong signature lead to an over estimation of said wind field/shear?Some of the stuff you look at is over my head such as the PVS.

[ColdFusion]

I don't think a single model showed her doing what she is doing right now, so I think we are all screwed in figuring out where she will be in 72 hours let alone 120 hours from now.

Hm, I think the NHC track/cone has been doing remarkably well, no?

[Sunnydays]

Didn't the synoptic aircraft fly yesterday and get readings and measurements? Isn't that what those missions are for? To try and add correct info into the models so they can come to more accurate conclusions?

[GCANE]

Beryl is now entering an inexhaustible supply of high OHC water.
The west Carib current has the deepest high-OHC water of the whole Atlantic and feeds the GoM Loop Current.
It's the main reasons TC's max out in the west Carib.

[3090]

Also, there is the ULL forming off the Gulf-Coast of FL.
My thought is this will Fujiwhara with Beryl and give Beryl a shift in track, i.e. a stronger north component.

And it appears the ULL is moving at a very fast pace. Depending on timing the ULL will definitely tend to draw Beryl to it wherever the ULL goes.

[tolakram]

Didn't the synoptic aircraft fly yesterday and get readings and measurements? Isn't that what those missions are for? To try and add correct info into the models so they can come to more accurate conclusions?

Have they been inaccurate? Let's see what happens. Latest HWRF run with the new data shows marked weakening beginning soon after Jamaica. It will either happen, or it won't.

[ChrisH-UK]

Anyone have a link to the Cuban radar? I have suspicion that the eyewall will come ashore in Treasure Beach next.

The Cuban weather service radars are here - http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES
Mexican weather radars are here - https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[Blown Away]

S coast of Jamaica probably just catching eyewall and maybe very brief calm eye conditions…

[tolakram]

We might get a landfall, hard to tell.

[WaveBreaking]

North eyewall currently firing stronger convection over Jamaica's southern coast. Might worsen flooding problems there.

[GCANE]

LL Convergence on the coast is firing off some massive tower.
Land interaction may actually benefit Beryl.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1808595044468703537

[GCANE]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Now we wait to see if the little bit of land interaction causes any major problems....

As of right now it looks like it’s helping, not hurting.

[Nimbus]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

Currently watching the trough split that Levi has been advertising for the last couple days.
All the 12Z models forecast weakening from southerly shear, maybe its just Siesta time?

[CrazyC83]

If the shear is much less than believed, is there a chance that Beryl could re-intensify before the Yucatan?

[Bimms]

That ridge that is supposed to push Beryl into the Yucatan doesn't look like much of a ridge especially when there is convection firing in it.

It's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, at least this what I've been thinking and saying for a while now.