ATL: BERYL - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

ICON is either completely out to lunch or catching on to something the other models aren't seeing. I would lean towards the ICON being out to lunch but at this point idk with how Beryl has been acting today.

Given its relative consistency and generally good performance on other notable storms like Ian, the ICON has been #1 on my dark horse list. I don’t have verification stats, but it has chalked up some notable wins that make it worth considering alongside other more well-reputed models. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, or even right, but I’d feel less uneasy if it were the CMC or HWRF showing this scenario instead.

[tolakram]

Gfs even weaker!

It's shows a 988mb system at 2am tonight, that seems like extreme weakening in 8 hours. If that's gonna hold up, Beryl will have to start falling apart very soon.

That is stronger than the poor init, so GFS thinks it will be strengthening.

[tolakram]

ICON is either completely out to lunch or catching on to something the other models aren't seeing. I would lean towards the ICON being out to lunch but at this point idk with how Beryl has been acting today.

Given its relative consistency and generally good performance on other notable storms like Ian, the ICON has been #1 on my dark horse list. I don’t have verification stats, but it has chalked up some notable wins that make it worth considering alongside other more well-reputed models. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, or even right, but I’d feel less uneasy if it were the CMC or HWRF showing this scenario instead.

Landfall is in 4 days on the icon. 4 days ago this was the ICON forecast.

[HoustonFrog]

Essentially no change in GFS, maybe a few miles north. Right on TX,MX border

[Stratton23]

GFS is trending toward a stronger central plains trough, I suspect this north shift will continue

[tolakram]

The GFS, 4 days ago, was in Corpus Christi



ICON doesn't go that far, but I think if any model projected north first it was the one I like to dislike, the GFS

[catskillfire51]

look how far the North the GFS rides the coast at landfall, I think more Northern shifts are coming.

[sphelps8681]

You almost have to feel sorry for these models. She is like don't you tell me what I am going to do. Their dealing with a CRAZY WOMEN!! LOL.

[Stratton23]

GFS has a stronger trough that is able to capture beryl a but more and bring it more northward , this could get interesting if models start trending toward a stronger trough

[Blinhart]

The North turn is what will decide where She will go, there is all evidence in all the models that there will be a North turn, they just cant agree on when and where she will turn.

[galvestontx]

isnt this a model thread? Shouldnt normal chit chat be in the discussion thread?

[tolakram]

isnt this a model thread? Shouldnt normal chit chat be in the discussion thread?

We are discussing models?

[StPeteMike]

isnt this a model thread? Shouldnt normal chit chat be in the discussion thread?

Only threads that “chit chat” is somewhat minimal is Recon threads. Comments and posts about models in a model thread is allowed.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS back to TX/MX border

[tolakram]

NAVGEM, ICON, and JMA all near the same location (Houston area).

[Senobia]

The local mets in Southeast Texas I'm not giving credence to any of the northern model runs. They have all definitively called for a landfall yourself of Brownsville with minimal local impacts beyond a 1 to 2 ft higher tide.

[tolakram]

GFS, Euro, CMC all near the Mexican border.

[IcyTundra]

18Z hurricane models show some significant weakening overnight.

[sphelps8681]

The local mets in Southeast Texas I'm not giving credence to any of the northern model runs. They have all definitively called for a landfall yourself of Brownsville with minimal local impacts beyond a 1 to 2 ft higher tide.

I am in SE Tx as well. See the same thing. I think they follow the Euro more. JMO.

[Blinhart]

So we have a split Galveston Bay and Mexico Border, will NHC go in between and go to Corpus Christi?