ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

Eye pass showing that she's holding steady

[hipshot]

Beryl is a pretty small I would expect the circulation will get disturbed a good bit by Jamaica(sorry mates).

From the videos I've seen, it doesn't look too disturbed to me, if anything it may be getting stronger.

Stay safe HipshotI( I think you are in Jamaica right). I’m sure the southern shore is taking a beating from this Cat 4

Nope, I'm in Dallas but I like to follow the weather in the tropics this time of year. This storm has been a doozy!!

[tolakram]

Really close to landfall, at least from this vantage point.

[aspen]

960.9mb extrapolated from the NOAA plane. Once again having SFMR issues. Only ~115 kt peak FL winds in the NW quadrant.

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Mike]

7pm Video Update on Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkmETBekzKY

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, I don't know if mr. Tolakram likes cheese or not, but I'm pretty sure cheese is one of the finite things Beryl doesn't like. So I think we'd better get back to talking about things specifically related to Beryl and who stands in her way soon, rather than criticizing or making non-constructive complaints against Meteorologists who are there every single day to do the job they've been asked to do since their first day there. They get paid for everything they do, and they are fully aware of what they are doing. They're not there to play with airplanes or trucks, obviously. But they are there to help entire nations prepare and protect themselves from misfortunes like Beryl.

I like cheese

[tolakram]

Well, I don't know if mr. Tolakram likes cheese or not, but I'm pretty sure cheese is one of the finite things Beryl doesn't like. So I think we'd better get back to talking about things specifically related to Beryl and who stands in her way soon, rather than criticizing or making non-constructive complaints against Meteorologists who are there every single day to do the job they've been asked to do since their first day there. They get paid for everything they do, and they are fully aware of what they are doing. They're not there to play with airplanes or trucks, obviously. But they are there to help entire nations prepare and protect themselves from misfortunes like Beryl.

I like cheese

I was eating grilled cheese at the time.

[cycloneye]

Eye is closed per VDM.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/22:32:54Z
B. 17.72 deg N 077.96 deg W
C. NA
D. 961 mb
E. 070 deg 07 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 052 deg 115 kt
K. 324 deg 9 nm 22:30:35Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 227 deg 81 kt
O. 150 deg 8 nm 22:34:53Z
P. 15 C / 2440 m
Q. 21 C / 2447 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1.5 nm
U. NOAA2 1602A BERYL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 115 KT 324 / 9 NM 22:30:35Z

[Javlin]

Looking at the loop on IR figure somewhere around 17.8N and 78W that's got her moving 21.5mph booking it stronger steering WNW but charts say W right now maybe even a little S of W??





do not know why it will not post the pics?

[tolakram]

Looking at the loop on IR figure somewhere around 17.8N and 78W that's got her moving 21.5mph booking it stronger steering WNW but charts say W right now maybe even a little S of ??

https://i.postimg.cc/8s8hNmrs/wg8dlm3.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/sfb8MFYG/wg8dlm4.gif

do not know why it will post the pics?

Put IMG tags around them like I did on the first one.

[3090]

Really close to landfall, at least from this vantage point.

https://i.imgur.com/bPT7CrN.png

Closer than what the models were forecasting 3-4 days ago.

[hipshot]

Really close to landfall, at least from this vantage point.

https://i.imgur.com/bPT7CrN.png

Closer than what the models were forecasting 3-4 days ago.

I'm not very good with those VDM's, can someone tell me what the current heading is for Beryl, I know it was like WNW but since it has
passed Jamaica by now, I wonder if it has been redirected. I guess we may need to wait for the next recon.

[CrazyC83]

With the strongest winds likely over land and not measured, I'd go with 110 kt for the intensity.

[3090]

With the strongest winds likely over land and not measured, I'd go with 110 kt for the intensity.

What is your best guess on its current direction? 285 still?

[Javlin]

With the strongest winds likely over land and not measured, I'd go with 110 kt for the intensity.

What is your best guess on its current direction? 285 still?

She moved 5 clicks N and 14 clicks W a 7/14 is a true NW so maybe 300 with 315=NW and you do not want to know the forward movement for that six hour time frame was about 15mph.

[3090]

With the strongest winds likely over land and not measured, I'd go with 110 kt for the intensity.

What is your best guess on its current direction? 285 still?

She moved 5 clicks N and 14 clicks W a 7/14 is a true NW so maybe 300 with 315=NW

That is what I am thinking. It looks pretty obvious on radar too!

[TomballEd]

Sudden degradation on satellite, would suspect land interaction. Eye looks open, it may close again as it gets farther from Jamaica.


Tropical Tidbits area average skew-T around Beryl would appear to be mild shear if looking where the TUTT would normally be imparting shear, the TUTT isn't really the cause, but 850 mb winds around 30 knots are creating effective shear.

[MGC]

Beryl has held up considering half the circulation has been over Jamaica all day. Would not be surprise is some modest intensification begins as the cyclone moves away from Jamaica.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Pass from Air Force plane VDM is same as NOAA. Eye is closed.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/23:42:30Z
B. 17.84 deg N 078.33 deg W
C. 700 mb 2801 m
D. 961 mb
E. 045 deg 12 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 86 kt
I. 122 deg 8 nm 23:40:00Z
J. 208 deg 97 kt
K. 123 deg 10 nm 23:39:30Z
L. 114 kt
M. 303 deg 5 nm 23:44:00Z
N. 055 deg 116 kt
O. 308 deg 9 nm 23:45:30Z
P. 11 C / 3035 m
Q. 18 C / 3033 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF300 1702A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 116 KT 308 / 9 NM 23:45:30Z