ATL: BERYL - Models

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF init

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS, 4 days ago, was in Corpus Christi

https://i.imgur.com/X8Bmd7x.png

ICON doesn't go that far, but I think if any model projected north first it was the one I like to dislike, the GFS

Neither of your posts really conflicts with what I said above. The gfs sniffed out that track first, and the icon shifted to the northern Yucatan pretty soon after the run you posted above and stuck with it since. Both models have consistently highlighted the concept that a stronger storm will feel more of a northward pull while a weaker one won’t, and both have had their respective wins and losses over the past few years. Main reason for my post above is that I tend to get the feeling people are often too quick to toss the icon out because it’s not the gfs or euro.

Plus, that run of the icon matches pretty close in track and intensity with what wxman was saying around that timeframe, so you’ll have throw him out too

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS, Euro, CMC all near the Mexican border.

It will be interesting if the next forecasted track shifts North to the borderline because of this.

[tolakram]

HAFS A and B

[IcyTundra]

So we have a split Galveston Bay and Mexico Border, will NHC go in between and go to Corpus Christi?

No NHC closely follows the consensus models with their tracks. If you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png there are 2 grey lines those are the TVCN and TVCX consensus models that averages the track of models like the GFS, UKMET, Euro, and HWRF. 18Z model runs don't seem too different for the models the NHC uses so they won't adjust their forecast track much.

[tolakram]

HWRF shows some strengthening and then weakens it like the others.

[Stratton23]

Im not believing the hurricane models taking this down to a cat 1 in 24 hours, I think a strong 2 will be more realistic, the core has stayed offshore and hasnt been disrupted much, think the hurricane models will whiff on this one

[tolakram]

HWRF still weakening

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

The 3 hurricane models all same strength and close to the same spot.

[jlauderdal]

So we have a split Galveston Bay and Mexico Border, will NHC go in between and go to Corpus Christi?

No NHC closely follows the consensus models with their tracks. If you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png there are 2 grey lines those are the TVCN and TVCX consensus models that averages the track of models like the GFS, UKMET, Euro, and HWRF. 18Z model runs don't seem too different for the models the NHC uses so they won't adjust their forecast track much.

TVCN with some human intervention at NHC is the best track.

[utweather]

So we have a split Galveston Bay and Mexico Border, will NHC go in between and go to Corpus Christi?

No NHC closely follows the consensus models with their tracks. If you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png there are 2 grey lines those are the TVCN and TVCX consensus models that averages the track of models like the GFS, UKMET, Euro, and HWRF. 18Z model runs don't seem too different for the models the NHC uses so they won't adjust their forecast track much.

TVCN with some human intervention at NHC is the best track.

Yes, this is the model I have been following the last few years. NHC has done a great job with their cones lately.

[jlauderdal]

No NHC closely follows the consensus models with their tracks. If you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png there are 2 grey lines those are the TVCN and TVCX consensus models that averages the track of models like the GFS, UKMET, Euro, and HWRF. 18Z model runs don't seem too different for the models the NHC uses so they won't adjust their forecast track much.

TVCN with some human intervention at NHC is the best track.

Yes, this is the model I have been following the last few years. NHC has done a great job with their cones lately.

NHC does a great job at 5 days, the line is very good considering how complex these systems are. That said, if you are in the cone at 3 days, prepare for a direct hit.

[Stratton23]

18z EPS significant shift north and now has the majority of its members feeling that trough to its north, more texas members now

[Clearcloudz]

18Z Euro Ensembles



18Z GFS Ensembles

[ROCK]

18z EPS significant shift north and now has the majority of its members feeling that trough to its north, more texas members now

Can someone post the run I am at dinner with the warden?

[IcyTundra]

18Z Euro Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/LqYB64m.png

18Z GFS Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/0A0h3RG.png

The 18Z Euro Ensemble you posted was from yesterday. I don't think weathernerds has the 18Z run from today up yet.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z Euro Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/LqYB64m.png

18Z GFS Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/0A0h3RG.png

The 18Z Euro Ensemble you posted was from yesterday. I don't think weathernerds has the 18Z run from today up yet.

Thanks I just saw that I'll fix it with the new run for today once its out.

[ROCK]

Landfall farther up the Yuc means more time to feel the trof. Maybe the ICON wasn’t out to lunch. Maybe out to dinner but not lunch….0Z runs will be cool to see…

[ColdMiser123]

18z EPS significant shift north and now has the majority of its members feeling that trough to its north, more texas members now

Can someone post the run I am at dinner with the warden?

Brownsville near the epicenter of all the member locations.