ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

What is your best guess on its current direction? 285 still?

She moved 5 clicks N and 14 clicks W a 7/14 is a true NW so maybe 300 with 315=NW

That is what I am thinking. It looks pretty obvious on radar too!

I used the wrong quantity of hrs 3090 for the forward movement about 16mph over the last 9 hours much more reasonable but the last 6 hrs about 300'

[quixoft]

I like cheese

User name checks out.

Question for the experts. I've seen some posts saying that since the eye has stayed off shore, that the mountains in Jamaica are actually helping Beryl stay together instead of pulling it apart. I realize that the eye hitting the mountains would severely disrupt the storm, but wouldn't even the northern portion of the storm hitting the mountains still disrupt it? How would it strengthen it? Some sort of funneling effect of the outer winds back into the eyewall?

[sphelps8681]

What does eye is closed mean?

[Javlin]

Really close to landfall, at least from this vantage point.

https://i.imgur.com/bPT7CrN.png

Closer than what the models were forecasting 3-4 days ago.

I'm not very good with those VDM's, can someone tell me what the current heading is for Beryl, I know it was like WNW but since it has
passed Jamaica by now, I wonder if it has been redirected. I guess we may need to wait for the next recon.

good decode for the VDM's

https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/66#M

[Javlin]

What does eye is closed mean?

The eyewall has no openings anywhere sealed.

[USTropics]

What does eye is closed mean?

It means the eyewall remains completely intact and the hurricane hunter aircraft could not identify an open eyewall (essentially the core remains healthy if the eye is completely closed).

[weeniepatrol]

What does eye is closed mean?

The eyewall remains completely intact

[aspen]

Beryl has held up considering half the circulation has been over Jamaica all day. Would not be surprise is some modest intensification begins as the cyclone moves away from Jamaica.....MGC

The hurricane models are still insistent that Beryl is going to get shredded tomorrow. I don’t think we’ll see even slight intensification between now and the Yucatan.

[Sn0ddyKn0ws]

First time post after 7+ years of discovering S2K. Really appreciate all y'all do and continue to read the threads religiously during hurricane season. I've learned a ton with this group.

If I may make a humble suggestion to folks who are just joining the discussions --- take some time and research/google terms you might not be familiar with. Guarantee you can easily find a quick and thorough answer on the google machine.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Beryl has held up considering half the circulation has been over Jamaica all day. Would not be surprise is some modest intensification begins as the cyclone moves away from Jamaica.....MGC

The hurricane models are still insistent that Beryl is going to get shredded tomorrow. I don’t think we’ll see even slight intensification between now and the Yucatan.

Yes there was quite the discrepancy with a couple of them showing a strong Yucatan hit - now they're very much in alignment with a much weaker system / borderline hurricane strength landfall.

[USTropics]

I like cheese

User name checks out.

Question for the experts. I've seen some posts saying that since the eye has stayed off shore, that the mountains in Jamaica are actually helping Beryl stay together instead of pulling it apart. I realize that the eye hitting the mountains would severely disrupt the storm, but wouldn't even the northern portion of the storm hitting the mountains still disrupt it? How would it strengthen it? Some sort of funneling effect of the outer winds back into the eyewall?

This would really come down to mesoscale factors and the interaction of the tropical cyclones circulation with orography. Elevation can alter the ventilation mechanisms and cumulus heating. As the hurricane's circulation encounters the mountains, it will cause air to rise rapidly, which can actually enhance cloud formation and precipitation (i.e., orographic lift). On a mesoscale level (and something that definitely could use further research), when air flows around or over mountains, it can converge in certain areas, which in theory could lead to intensification of the storm's core circulation. From a research article conducted in 2012:

In tropical cyclones, the tangential winds encountering a mountain range produce a gravity wave response and greatly enhanced upslope flow. Depending on the height of the mountain, the maximum rain may occur on either the windward or leeward side. When the capped boundary layer of the eye of a tropical cyclone passes over a mountain, the cap may be broken with intense convection resulting.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 11RG000365

[GCANE]

Latest recon measures 60mm/hr rain rate and supersaturated eye.
If that keeps up, Beryl may make a quick recovery.

[WaveBreaking]

New VHT firing on the eastern eyewall. Looks like Beryl might be trying to get its structure back together as soon as possible after Jamaica.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Jamaica and wind shear gave Beryl quite the beating, but I am genuinely impressed it managed to hold on to Category 4 status as it reached the island.

[Kohlecane]

Anyone else almost almost spit out their drink when first pulling up the long-wave Infrared Imagery for Meso Sector #1 (GOES-East) from COD....NO BERYL , you will not!!

[Hurrilurker]

Anyone else almost almost spit out their drink when first pulling up the long-wave Infrared Imagery for Meso Sector #1 (GOES-East) from COD....NO BERYL , you will not!!

Just a slight northward shift...

[USTropics]

Here are 30 frames of radar I saved that shows Beryl's core has largely remained intact as it passed just to the south of Jamaica:

[TallyTracker]

Anyone else almost almost spit out their drink when first pulling up the long-wave Infrared Imagery for Meso Sector #1 (GOES-East) from COD....NO BERYL , you will not!!

https://i.imgur.com/WgMORv5.png?1

I hope my Panama City, FL relatives don’t see this! They’d freak out! lol

[USTropics]

Anyone else almost almost spit out their drink when first pulling up the long-wave Infrared Imagery for Meso Sector #1 (GOES-East) from COD....NO BERYL , you will not!!

https://i.imgur.com/WgMORv5.png?1

/tp Beryl 86W 26N 0

[Javlin]

Anyone else almost almost spit out their drink when first pulling up the long-wave Infrared Imagery for Meso Sector #1 (GOES-East) from COD....NO BERYL , you will not!!

https://i.imgur.com/WgMORv5.png?1

I hope my Panama City, FL relatives don’t see this! They’d freak out! lol

Now that's funny