ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

And here she comes again...

[Stormgodess]

VDM
11:40Z
Max Surface Wind: 97knts
970mb
18.71N 81.46W
20nm circular eye, open s to SE

Eyedrop has 82% RH at 850mb
.
No wobble, definitely north of forecast track (should be 18.45N at 81.5W)
About 20nm north.

It has seemed to track just North of the forecast track since it became a Cat 4. Or maybe it's just been everytime Ive looked at it

[GCANE]

Wow, 65mm/hr rain rate. Another cylinder firing up

Is Beryl a 6-cylinder or still an 8-cylinder?

Dont be fooled by pics coming out of Kingston or Montego Bay, Southwest Jamaica into the Blue Mountains took a beating, was listening to Nationwide last night and this morning, wind was a huge issue with roofs-not just tin roofs either.

For awhile was a 12-cylinder Merlin

[GCANE]

VDM
11:40Z
Max Surface Wind: 97knts
970mb
18.71N 81.46W
20nm circular eye, open s to SE

Eyedrop has 82% RH at 850mb
.
No wobble, definitely north of forecast track (should be 18.45N at 81.5W)
About 20nm north.

It has seemed to track just North of the forecast track since it became a Cat 4. Or maybe it's just been everytime Ive looked at it

That is what I have been seeing

[kevin]

Passes seem to indicate that Beryl has now weakened to ~100kt with a pressure around 968 - 970 mb.

[GCANE]

Deep convection looks persistent, not raining out.
She's drinking from the high OHC hose.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just clocked a near 60mm/hr rain rate.

[cycloneye]

This is me at X posting in spanish, but look at the Grand Cayman radar.

 https://x.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1808845688253354307

[wxman57]

Beryl looks on-track to make landfall about 70 miles south of Brownsville late Sunday evening, probably as a Cat 1. Hurricane models have been in very good agreement on landfall between Tampico and Brownsville. A landfall south of Brownsville would produce tropical storm force wind into Brownsville, but Corpus Christi would experience 25-35 mph wind. Of course, much will depend on how much it weakens after crossing the Yucatan. It's a relatively small hurricane. Small hurricanes are much more fragile than large ones.

Good job on your track in spite of mixed signals from the models and initialization issues for several days now. Human intervention with experience looking at tropical systems is required to come up with a good track, I see ICON hugging on the twitter, it really needs to stop. WXMAN57 put out a track that was a little too far south but well within the "error" rate, considering how far out in time he put his track out for public consumption. I see 96L is following similar track even south, the ridge is strong and beryl isnt busting through it heading to the TX/LA border. Houston peeps, you want to know what is happening, follow Matt Lanza and Jeff Lindner for all things Houston, they know the enviornment and Lindner knows every square inch of topography and how it floods. They are also fantastic on communication!

ICON only clips the northern Yucatan, keeping Beryl's structure intact. A small hurricane will lose its core spending 12 hours crossing the Yucatan (south of the ICON). I've known Jeff for nearly 30 years. We often were speaking after one another at various hurricane conferences.

[ColdMiser123]

Note that shear is peaking this morning. Will now be going on a downward trend today.

It will decrease to 25 kt by 18z (2 pm EDT) & then to 15-20 kt by 0z (8 pm EDT).

[GCANE]

GoM is juiced.
4000 to 5000 CAPE all over the place

[aspen]

Passes seem to indicate that Beryl has now weakened to ~100kt with a pressure around 968 - 970 mb.

Might be down to 90-95 kt. I’m not seeing any strong evidence for MH winds at the surface.

Edit: nvm, AF302 eyewall drop just found 99 kt in the NE eyewall. So seemingly still a major but just barely clinging on.

[Emmett_Brown]

I don’t know how the “Major Hurricane Days” seasonal metric is calculated, but we are getting a good jump on it this year

[GCANE]

Recon reports eye has now closed

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/1808851324504846790

[3090]

Safe to say now Beryl is a threat to the SW and western GOM. She is NOT going to dive deep into the BOC. Those along the upper MX coast all the way up to the central TX coast should be prespared for Beryl. Also with the a angle of which Beryl will be making landfall along this area the most potent side of Beryl will remain offshore as she moves basically north. So a good portion of the western GOM all the way up to the NW GOM coast are going to get a good dose of what Beryl will bring.

Also take note she appears to be spreading her wings so to speak (CDO) this morning. But I guess we’ll see later this morning and into today how she plays out.

[GCANE]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

[LadyBug72]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

Does this have any effect on the future track and where she will make landfall?

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

Is the ULL just tugging to the north a bit or imparting shear on her as well?

[3090]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

Is the ULL just tugging to the north a bit or imparting shear on her as well?

The ULL will somewhat slingshot Beryl around and will also help ventilate Beryl if I am correct with previous similar occurences.