ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the forecast tack has been adjusted to the north.

[jconsor]

Thank you! Appreciate your insightful posts as well.

Thread on important short-term trends noted regarding Beryl, and how this influences her potential TX/MX impacts.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332

Great writeup - lots of fantastic points made in this thread.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If it keeps going in the same direction it is going now, it will cross the Yucatan well north of 20 degrees

[jaguars_22]

I think she has made her turn west as of latest satellite

[Teban54]

Even though the VDM an hour ago showed an open eyewall (as supported by radar around that time), it looks like Beryl is already working on repairing it:

[aspen]

If it keeps going in the same direction it is going now, it will cross the Yucatan well north of 20 degrees

Maybe the ICON isn’t out to lunch with its northern solution after all.

I can potentially see a bit of intensification over the next 12-18 hours, since the eyewall is back to being closed and shear is dropping a bit.

[tropicwatch]

Thinking the strong upper-level high south of Beryl is helping to keep Beryl in check. By shutting down the outflow to the south.

[3090]

I think she has made her turn west as of latest satellite

At this point where Beryl is located it becomes increasingly difficult to track her true path the more she goes poleward. Radar and official HH reports are the best at this time.

[GCANE]

Starting to get a warm-core signature on IR

[kassi]

Even though the VDM an hour ago showed an open eyewall (as supported by radar around that time), it looks like Beryl is already working on repairing it:
https://i.postimg.cc/65Fp54QN/image.png

Actually, it showed a closed eyewall.

[GCANE]

CIMSS just updated shear analysis
18 knots, down from 24

[TheAustinMan]

It's been quite remarkable how resilient Beryl has been in the face of less than ideal upper-level conditions. It's not even necessarily a case of conditions being more conducive than modeled either -- reconnaissance radar data has indicated that the strong mid- to upper-level wind shear has been present, with the core of the hurricane at times being subjected to 25-35 kt wind shear based on that radar data. However, Beryl's inner core has stood that test time and time again. Conditions become gradually more favorable as Beryl approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and given the corridor of high tropical cyclone heat potential in its path and how intact it is, I would not be surprised if Beryl once again strengthens higher than the model guidance. In fact, that would be my expectation given that Beryl is better put together than modeled. Recent jogs slightly right of forecast may also implicate an increased severity of effects in Cozumel.

Source: TropicalTidbits for satellite, Cayman National Weather Service for radar

[GCANE]

Lots of Cumulus forming on the northern Yucatan.
Beryl wont have any problem with dry air.

[underthwx]

Thread on important short-term trends noted regarding Beryl, and how this influences her potential TX/MX impacts.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332

Great writeup - lots of fantastic points made in this thread.

It is a great write-up....I wish I said all that....who is this person?....

[Pipelines182]

20N is the latitude to watch. If Beryl crosses it before the Yucatán, the US comes into play in a major way.

[TallyTracker]

Beryl’s been a major hurricane for over 4 days straight now. That’s not terribly common any time of year. Truely astonishing in June/July. Usually only 1-2 storms per year meet or exceed that number of major hurricane days.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Pretty clear that Beryl will continue to outperform models, even those with smaller resolutions like the hurricane models. I would lean towards looking farther north and stronger than the current consensus track - we've been trending that way anyway, but still worth keeping in mind. Definitely not on-track to end up south of the Texas border as a weak cane (I'd expect stronger and further north at this point), barring some really terrible collapse between now and its entry into the Gulf across the mostly flat Yucatan Peninsula. I've mentioned some of the potential sources for error in the modeling in my previous message here: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=124107&p=3071892#p3071892. Very impressive what Beryl has managed to do, as conditions aren't exactly favorable even with the nicest interpretation of the surrounding environment, but it's not as detrimental as forecast.

Just a sign that while the models are impressive and continue to get better year-after-year, they still have flaws/biases and in borderline situations - where even a slightly weaker system could have succumbed to the environmental factors working against it - they may not always be the most reliable. Worth keeping in mind for any future shifts as well.

Cantor's earlier thread about Beryl's performance is pretty much spot-on with what we've seen.

[3090]

20N is the latitude to watch. If Beryl crosses it before the Yucatán, the US comes into play in a major way.

IMO looking at the latest satellite imagery Beryl is now a bit above Grand Cayman’s latitude of 19.3. It is too dificult for me to tell by satellite imagery of her current movement.

[ColdMiser123]

20N is the latitude to watch. If Beryl crosses it before the Yucatán, the US comes into play in a major way.

IMO looking at the latest satellite imagery Beryl is now a bit above Grand Cayman’s latitude of 19.3. It is too dificult for me to tell by satellite imagery of her current movement.

Latest recon pass puts it at a tad north of 19.1N.

[HurricaneBrain]

If Beryl continues toward the Yucatán with her general movement the past 5 hours, she will clip it. That WSW movement will need to happen today for models to verify.