ATL: BERYL - Models

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1808864770050724179

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: slightly N of its 0Z run and near yesterday’s 12Z run; it is ~90 miles S of TX border, which is where 12Z UKMET is and is between 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC


So, from N to S for 12Z global runs:

ICON (Matagorda)

GFS (60 miles S of TX border)

Euro/UKMET (90 miles S of TX border)

CMC (125 miles S of TX border)

[cycloneye]

12z European has 978 mbs at landfall.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro hanging with the southern solution. Straight in, no drama.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensembles strongly support the 12z Euro operational with the majority of members making landfall near the TX/MX border.

[Stratton23]

Im thinking closer to south padre island- corpus more for a landfall, regardless more hurricane members show a bend towards the N-NE, could be a flooding event for some

[shah83]

One thing models make clear to me is that any sort of track that makes for a TX landfall is in for a relatively slow northward moving hurricane dumping a great deal of rain.

[Cpv17]

Im thinking closer to south padre island- corpus more for a landfall, regardless more hurricane members show a bend towards the N-NE, could be a flooding event for some

This is my thinking as well.

[CronkPSU]

https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/180 ... FezRDDrNhw

[LadyBug72]

I have heard in the past that certain runs (like the 18z) are usually not the ones to watch….is there any scientific proof of this like less data etc or is it more like people choose the runs the like best such as 0Z over 12Z.

[tolakram]

I have heard in the past that certain runs (like the 18z) are usually not the ones to watch….is there any scientific proof of this like less data etc or is it more like people choose the runs the like best such as 0Z over 12Z.

Used to be, not any more, at least with the GFS.

[LARanger]

So, I have been thinking for the past couple of days that this storm-specific model verification for public consumption is something that should be relatively achievable, even as a value addition to an existing website's display of models.

Turns out it already exists.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al022024/

[South Texas Storms]

Another westward shift in the final landfall point with the 18z ICON. Now takes it to near Rockport.

[LarryWx]

18Z ICON: very slightly SW of 12Z on S-central TX coast

[Stratton23]

Given how beryl is on the northern side of all ensembles guidance, i suspect we will see these northern trends continue, including with the hurricane models as well, i got landfall right around corpus

[cheezyWXguy]

Another westward shift in the final landfall point with the 18z ICON. Now takes it to near Rockport.

It’s also notably weaker until the last few frames before landfall despite being further north, what’s the cause for that?

[ROCK]

12Z JMA hooks it right into Freeport. Just for fun...

[ROCK]

12Z Navgem in back to Matagorda I see...thats 3 runs in a row...they didnt run a 0Z last night for whatever reason. The 06Z from yesterday had a TX/MX but since it has swung right.

[jabman98]

12Z JMA hooks it right into Freeport. Just for fun...

LOL. A friend of mine is supposed to be going to Freeport for a week starting Sunday. Hmmm.....

[Stratton23]

at this range the globals can be completely tossed out for intensity, i think its likely that a hurricane will be approaching the texas coast line somewhere, the hurricane modes will be the most useful with this