ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One stubborn storm. Aside from the refusal to disintegrate into a TS, it just keeps defying odds.

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1808891602917593140

[Woofde]

As Levi pointed out in his latest discussion, we have a bit of a bimodal split here. The stronger and more Northern Beryl goes in the short term, the stronger it will be in the Gulf. The Yucatan is very flat up north, and due to the topography, a more northern track results in less land interaction. A further north track also will give it more distance and ability to resist the ULL attempts to force dry air into the circulation.

The Yucatan is going to be another critical point in Beryls journey.

[Javlin]

The WV/cloud movement says the weakness is to the N this is a short look into the future.

video: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Beryl has also consistently outperformed guidance, despite weakening.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1808864770050724179

[AtlanticWind]

The Hurricane center has been almost spot on the path of Beryl thru the Carribean
Looks to me like it’s on track to come ashore just south of Cozumel

[InfernoFlameCat]

They have Beryl at 95 knots now. There goes quite a legendary major hurricane July streak.

[zhukm29]

[copano]

I'm chomping at the bit and now wondering if the ICON model everyone loves to hate becomes the predominate model, time will tell.

[wxman57]

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

Wobbles? I have not really taken note of any wobbles. I do see a very steady 285 heading. It would need to head at a 270 heading or less to land below Cozumel like right now and in the immediate future.

Direction to Cozumel is 287 degrees from its current position. Heading now looks almost due west. I measure a 3-hr movement to 275 deg at nearly 16 kts. That puts landfall about 45 miles south of Cozumel. Strong TS winds likely there.

[TomballEd]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

It may just be a wobble, but I think I see the turn W on Caymans radar and satellite. In reading WxMan57 for almost 20 years, he isn't wrong very often.

[aspen]

Starting to get some blue pixels in the eye, the warmest it’s been in like 2 days. Wondering if we might see a Cat 3 landfall in the Yucatan.

[Tireman4]

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

Wobbles? I have not really taken note of any wobbles. I do see a very steady 285 heading. It would need to head at a 270 heading or less to land below Cozumel like right now and in the immediate future.

Direction to Cozumel is 287 degrees from its current position. Heading now looks almost due west. I measure a 3-hr movement to 275 deg at nearly 16 kts. That puts landfall about 45 miles south of Cozumel. Strong TS winds likely there.

Happy 4th of July to you, Sir. I am sorry you have to work today. The order of 4 big Kerosene heaters are on their way Monday to your house as it might cool down next week

[AtlanticWind]

The question now is how much the approximate 12 hour trek across
the Yucatan affects its organization and how much its
restrengthens in the gulf

[Pipelines182]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

The models have been spot on with the track and even if they hadn’t, “going with your gut” is always going to be less accurate.

[LadyBug72]

Unless she starts turning west, it looks like Beryl wants to make its way to Cancun for some fun at the LeBlanc Spa Resort.

Barely brushes tip of Yucatán, slows forward motion then begins NNW motion tonite and early tomorrow, landfall Tx/ La border Monday evening Tuesday morning.

I don’t see this happening and I have not seen one pro met even remotely mention this scenario.

[tolakram]

Levi confirms NW and north of models. I forgot to check recon.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looking much healthier than I was anticipating

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Unless she starts turning west, it looks like Beryl wants to make its way to Cancun for some fun at the LeBlanc Spa Resort.

Barely brushes tip of Yucatán, slows forward motion then begins NNW motion tonite and early tomorrow, landfall Tx/ La border Monday evening Tuesday morning.

I don’t see this happening and I have not seen one pro met even remotely mention this scenario.

Agreed, TX/LA border is a HUGE stretch. I’d say final landfall is anywhere between the mouth of Rio Grande and Carboneras, Tamaulipas. Strength is the only thing in question.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like its movement over the past hour or two has turned more westward like the models indicated. I think it will move into the Yucatan just south of Cozumel tomorrow morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

But the stronger it gets before land interaction, the less the chance the core will be interrupted as much, and as some mets pointed out, looks like strengthening is once again underway with decreasing shear.