ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bimms]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

The models have been spot on with the track and even if they hadn’t, “going with your gut” is always going to be less accurate.

Guess we will see. It's exciting to watch, but I'm still going to stick with what I said. Brushes the tip of the Yucatan and then takes a more northerly track.

[tolakram]

[hurricane2025]

I like 57 but he’s all euro guy nothing wrong with that but can’t always follow euro

[tolakram]

Heat content


source: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al022024

[jlauderdal]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

The models have been spot on with the track and even if they hadn’t, “going with your gut” is always going to be less accurate.

Models struggled as a whole and it continues, nhc has been good on track as always smoothing out the many bumps this time, intensity is mysterious and even more after beryl and it has the nhc on the backfoot, Hazleton tweeted about it earlier. Who knows how it plays out the next 4 months, beryl could be a one off but I doubt it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl seems very unlikely to make landfall north of Cozumel. My personal thought is that it will just clip the southern tip of the island, or go just south of it.

It should be noted that even the ICON runs yesterday that took Beryl up to Galveston or the TX/LA border did not make Yucatan landfall north of Cozumel, so that would be a wild deviation I’ve seen no evidence for. It remains the northern outlier among the deterministic models, and it remains to be seen if or how much it is “out to lunch”.

[Teban54]

I know Beryl's countless other eyewall clearing attempts earlier didn't stop its weakening, but this one is definitely the healthiest I've seen in days.

[Kludge]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

It may just be a wobble, but I think I see the turn W on Caymans radar and satellite. In reading WxMan57 for almost 20 years, he isn't wrong very often.

Storm2k has archives going back through the years, which include pro met member predictions. I often find them very entertaining.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 02, 2024070418, , BEST, 0, 193N, 835W, 95, 974, HU

[cheezyWXguy]

I know Beryl's countless other eyewall clearing attempts earlier didn't stop its weakening, but this one is definitely the healthiest I've seen in days.
https://i.postimg.cc/KYCqjftn/0966042d-a69e-459b-9aa2-856b8d144fba.jpg

Agreed. The entire eye is becoming visible on vis satellite at the moment, only some translucent upper level clouds remaining now

[AtlanticWind]

The NHC has been spot on with the path of this storm since it’s inception

The only real question has been when Beryl entered the SW gulf and whether
It would continue Wnw or turn more northwest toward south Texas.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I know Beryl's countless other eyewall clearing attempts earlier didn't stop its weakening, but this one is definitely the healthiest I've seen in days.
https://i.postimg.cc/KYCqjftn/0966042d-a69e-459b-9aa2-856b8d144fba.jpg

This is more of a sign of organization instead of a sign of strengthening, right?

[Cpv17]

Barely brushes tip of Yucatán, slows forward motion then begins NNW motion tonite and early tomorrow, landfall Tx/ La border Monday evening Tuesday morning.

I don’t see this happening and I have not seen one pro met even remotely mention this scenario.

Agreed, TX/LA border is a HUGE stretch. I’d say final landfall is anywhere between the mouth of Rio Grande and Carboneras, Tamaulipas. Strength is the only thing in question.

I feel fairly confident this won’t be a MX landfall.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I don’t see this happening and I have not seen one pro met even remotely mention this scenario.

Agreed, TX/LA border is a HUGE stretch. I’d say final landfall is anywhere between the mouth of Rio Grande and Carboneras, Tamaulipas. Strength is the only thing in question.

I feel fairly confident this won’t be a MX landfall.

Well it's definitely going to hit Yucatán...

[Cpv17]

Agreed, TX/LA border is a HUGE stretch. I’d say final landfall is anywhere between the mouth of Rio Grande and Carboneras, Tamaulipas. Strength is the only thing in question.

I feel fairly confident this won’t be a MX landfall.

Well it's definitely going to hit Yucatán...

Final landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

Beryl seems very unlikely to make landfall north of Cozumel. My personal thought is that it will just clip the southern tip of the island, or go just south of it.

It should be noted that even the ICON runs yesterday that took Beryl up to Galveston or the TX/LA border did not make Yucatan landfall north of Cozumel, so that would be a wild deviation I’ve seen no evidence for. It remains the northern outlier among the deterministic models, and it remains to be seen if or how much it is “out to lunch”.

I agree. I think the idea of it "clipping" the channel or going into the channel is just wishful thinking, without any data to back it up. Just stick with the NHC predictions and models. They HAVE the data.

[tolakram]

[TomballEd]

I like 57 but he’s all euro guy nothing wrong with that but can’t always follow euro

A professional met whose energy sector clients follow possible interruptions in the Gulf of Mexico follows only one model but keeps his clients. OK.

[Category5Kaiju]

Does anybody know how vulnerable Brownsville Texas is to surge? Also for that part of Texas, what was the worst hurricane to strike them in history? Thanks

[MGC]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC