ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Beryl:


Also Beryl:

[Frank P]

looks to me on the VIS SAT loop she is tracking just north of due west... I don't think she will hit north of Cancun but a tad south... and she won't have to traverse the heart of the Yucatan if that comes to fruition... looks like the last few frames it easier to see the eye...

[LadyBug72]

I like 57 but he’s all euro guy nothing wrong with that but can’t always follow euro

A professional met whose energy sector clients follow possible interruptions in the Gulf of Mexico follows only one model but keeps his clients. OK.

EXACTLY!

[Pipelines182]

Whelp, Beryl just wrapped cold deep convection all the way round it’s eye again. How is that even possible with 30 knots of windshear? I just don’t get it.

[zzzh]

[Kazmit]

Whelp, Beryl just wrapped cold deep convection all the way round it’s eye again. How is that even possible with 30 knots of windshear? I just don’t get it.

Shear is relaxing- it's closer to 20 knots now.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whelp, Beryl just wrapped cold deep convection all the way round it’s eye again. How is that even possible with 30 knots of windshear? I just don’t get it.

I'll give you a one word response: Michael.

[tropicwatch]

Of course, Beryl wants to perform when nobody is around. Next AF mission takes of around 3:45pm Central Time.

[Kazmit]

Of course, Beryl wants to perform when nobody is around. Next AF mission takes of around 3:45pm Central Time.

NHC will keep it at 95 kts until we get recon evidence of strengthening.

[aspen]

Whelp, Beryl just wrapped cold deep convection all the way round it’s eye again. How is that even possible with 30 knots of windshear? I just don’t get it.

I'll give you a one word response: Michael.

Vastly different shear setup, though. Michael and Ian were traveling along the shear vector, so the net shear was low and both systems were ventilated. Beryl is traveling perpendicular to the flow from the TUTT and therefore the net shear is most hostile…which makes its persistence even more impressive.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I feel fairly confident this won’t be a MX landfall.

Well it's definitely going to hit Yucatán...

Final landfall.

I didn’t think so before, but I’m starting to wrap my mind around an EXTREME NE Mexico or Boca Chica landfall. Furthest north I can reason with is North Padre and Corpus.

Now strength is something I’ll argue on. Unless it ends up in the Puucs, idk if it would degrade all the way down to a TS before getting into the Gulf.

[aspen]

Of course, Beryl wants to perform when nobody is around. Next AF mission takes of around 3:45pm Central Time.

NHC will keep it at 95 kts until we get recon evidence of strengthening.

Even now I think that’s a fair intensity. The last passes suggested Beryl might’ve fallen down to 90 kt, so it’s probably just a hair under MH intensity now.

[drexas]

Watching radar, Beryl also looks to have slowed down considerably recently. Anyone else seeing the same?
Edit: may just be perception from the storm reaching the edge of the radar's range

[Cpv17]

Well it's definitely going to hit Yucatán...

Final landfall.

I didn’t think so before, but I’m starting to wrap my mind around an EXTREME NE Mexico or Boca Chica landfall. Furthest north I can reason with is North Padre and Corpus.

Now strength is something I’ll argue on. Unless it ends up in the Puucs, idk if it would degrade all the way down to a TS before getting into the Gulf.

I’m thinking Port Mansfield area. Maybe Baffin Bay. Furthest N I could see would be Port Aransas.

[zzzh]

Amazing

[xironman]

From the visible it seems to be blowing up some decent mesos around the regenerating eyewall. Should close it off nicely

[xironman]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC

The edge of the cone is central Cozumel. So it should go well south of it. I am using Cozumel as a benchmark. If it landfalls there the storm is way north.

[xironman]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC

The edge of the cone is central Cozumel. So it should go well south of it. I am using Cozumel as a benchmark. If it landfalls there the storm is way north.

[LadyBug72]

Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the east side of Beryl's circulation and with the eye reemerging shear looks to be relaxing. Landfall looks to be near Cozumel and should exit the trek across the Yucatan near Progresso as a TS. Depending on how badly the core is disrupted will determine how fast the hurricane will reintensify. Landfall north of Rio Grande is a good possibility......MGC

What direction is she currently moving?

[pamdsh]

Watching radar, Beryl also looks to have slowed down considerably recently. Anyone else seeing the same?
Edit: may just be perception from the storm reaching the edge of the radar's range

Just watching the Weather Channel, they were commenting the same thing. Also that with it's slow down and the system entering the Gulf behind it, that it could pull moisture in and create a slow moving flood event for SE Texas.

Any comments on this? Went through Harvey, 60" of rain in three days... never want to experience that again.