ATL: BERYL - Models

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Stormlover70
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#801 Postby Stormlover70 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:03 pm

Looks like a mexico storm once again.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#802 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:05 pm

that still isnt guaranteed
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#803 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:59 pm

18Z Navgem at the same place as 12Z....
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#804 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:01 pm

Stratton23 wrote:that still isnt guaranteed


I wouldn’t bet on a MX landfall right now.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#805 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:05 pm

ROCK wrote:18Z Navgem at the same place as 12Z....



I shall never besmirch the NAVY or LBAR again!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#806 Postby LadyBug72 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:06 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
ROCK wrote:18Z Navgem at the same place as 12Z....



I shall never besmirch the NAVY or LBAR again!


Remind me where it was showing….Rockport?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#807 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:40 pm

Beryl is officially back to a cat 3 with 115 mph winds. This is much stronger than the global models and their ensemble members forecasted for this point in time, so the models are still playing catch up to Beryl.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#808 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:51 pm

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#809 Postby Clearcloudz » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:35 pm

This is very concerning. Models don't have this pinned down yet. The spread is very big considering this is few days out now.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#810 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:42 pm

I am not saying these latest spaghetti models will come true but dang local mets have not even had a thought this might be a thing. They would just inch it further North and always this will not affect SE Tx. Hope they are right. But it just looks like they hug to one model and you know which one I am talking about. But this maybe just a little turn and go back to their forecast. Not really happy if this comes true. I am prepared but how many are not. JS.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#811 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:42 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:This is very concerning. Models don't have this pinned down yet. The spread is very big considering this is few days out now.

https://i.imgur.com/rg0necs.png




Pete Calvin, our local on air met at Channel 11 ( Houston CBS affiliate) is starting to get concerned about the models. He stated this in a tweet 20 minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#812 Postby Clearcloudz » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:51 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:This is very concerning. Models don't have this pinned down yet. The spread is very big considering this is few days out now.

https://i.imgur.com/rg0necs.png




Pete Calvin, our local on air met at Channel 11 ( Houston CBS affiliate) is starting to get concerned about the models. He stated this in a tweet 20 minutes ago.


Biggest problem will be communication in a short amount of time to a population in Houston and surrounding areas if it were to track further to the right and stronger.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#813 Postby Sambucol2024 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:55 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:This is very concerning. Models don't have this pinned down yet. The spread is very big considering this is few days out now.

https://i.imgur.com/rg0necs.png



Pete Calvin, our local on air met at Channel 11 ( Houston CBS affiliate) is starting to get concerned about the models. He stated this in a tweet 20 minutes ago.


Biggest problem will be communication in a short amount of time to a population in Houston and surrounding areas if it were to track further to the right and stronger.



And it takes time to prepare the house boarding up if needed.
Last edited by Sambucol2024 on Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#814 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:55 pm

the mighty 0Z ICON rolling in....not that I am excited or anything. :lol: 987 initialized oh joy...
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#815 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:58 pm

ROCK wrote:the mighty 0Z ICON rolling in....not that I am excited or anything. 987 initialized oh joy...
Back to tx/la border?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#816 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:59 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
ROCK wrote:the mighty 0Z ICON rolling in....not that I am excited or anything. 987 initialized oh joy...
Back to tx/la border?



nah its loading...006hr right now from where I get it...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#817 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:01 pm

Nhc track just shifted…..central Texas could be in the crosshairs
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#818 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:05 pm

ICON is north so far. :)

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#819 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:06 pm

0z ICON about 50-60 miles north of 18z at 30 hours.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#820 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:06 pm

Image
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