ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Beryl is a C3 again per Tropical Cyclone Update

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
930 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl
has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of
115 mph (185 km/h). The aircraft data also indicated that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 962 mb.

The next forecast will be issued at the normally scheduled time at
11 PM EDT (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 930 PM AST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[MississippiWx]

I think we will need a track adjustment in the next update northward in addition to the intensity. Beryl has been defying all odds - if it can keep an inner core across the Yucatan, we could have big issues for Texas.

Just depends on how much land it takes. It’s still a small storm and will be more severely impacted by land. However, the flip side is that does make it easier to tighten back up on the other side. I still think places north of Brownsville have a good chance of receiving direct impacts.

[LadyBug72]

I think we will need a track adjustment in the next update northward in addition to the intensity. Beryl has been defying all odds - if it can keep an inner core across the Yucatan, we could have big issues for Texas.

Just depends on how much land it takes. It’s still a small storm and will be more severely impacted by land. However, the flip side is that does make it easier to tighten back up on the other side. I still think places north of Brownsville have a good chance of receiving direct impacts.

Does the fact that she’s now moving west contribute to her not being able to come inland farther north into Texas?

[Visioen]

Hurricane math: outperforming storm + west carib =

[MarioProtVI]

Texas needs to watch out because Beryl coming in stronger and a bit further north in the Yucatán = less weakening = stronger emergence into the GoM = more chance of getting stronger and moving more northward towards the Texas coast.

[Nimbus]

That recon pass supports a borderline cat 3 IMO.

110 knot peak winds and pressures down about 3 millibars since the last pass.
The thing that bothers me is that the vortex data points are much closer together than they were this morning.
Recon planes have radar onboard and usually do an incredibly accurate job of flying through the eyewall at flight level.
I would say the speed has slowed drastically based on just the first two center fixes.
That data hasn't reached the models yet so mañana..

[MississippiWx]

I think we will need a track adjustment in the next update northward in addition to the intensity. Beryl has been defying all odds - if it can keep an inner core across the Yucatan, we could have big issues for Texas.

Just depends on how much land it takes. It’s still a small storm and will be more severely impacted by land. However, the flip side is that does make it easier to tighten back up on the other side. I still think places north of Brownsville have a good chance of receiving direct impacts.

Does the fact that she’s now moving west contribute to her not being able to come inland farther north into Texas?

According to recon, it’s still moving WNW. By now, it was supposed to be heading due west with even a possible southerly component on a lot of model runs. So no, farther north is definitely still on the table.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I see it has slowed down quite a bit in the last couple of hours

[LadyBug72]

Just depends on how much land it takes. It’s still a small storm and will be more severely impacted by land. However, the flip side is that does make it easier to tighten back up on the other side. I still think places north of Brownsville have a good chance of receiving direct impacts.

Does the fact that she’s now moving west contribute to her not being able to come inland farther north into Texas?

According to recon, it’s still moving WNW. By now, it was supposed to be heading due west with even a possible southerly component on a lot of model runs. So no, farther north is definitely still on the table.

Thank you, on the advisory that just came out it said her movement was West.

[Charleswachal]

Does the fact that she’s now moving west contribute to her not being able to come inland farther north into Texas?

According to recon, it’s still moving WNW. By now, it was supposed to be heading due west with even a possible southerly component on a lot of model runs. So no, farther north is definitely still on the table.

Thank you, on the advisory that just came out it said her movement was West.

I don't know where they got West from when recon shows it going wnw

[hipshot]

Does the fact that she’s now moving west contribute to her not being able to come inland farther north into Texas?

According to recon, it’s still moving WNW. By now, it was supposed to be heading due west with even a possible southerly component on a lot of model runs. So no, farther north is definitely still on the table.

Thank you, on the advisory that just came out it said her movement was West.

Well, 275 is close to due west versus about 300 degrees for WNW

[jaguars_22]

What you guys think about Seadrift too far north?

[IcyTundra]

What you guys think about Seadrift too far north?

Seadrift is still in the cone I would think further south is more likely but it is certainly a possibility that Seadrift could get hit.

[MississippiWx]

I’m more and more concerned for the Central TX coastline.

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1809037866300751908

[Xyls]

The waters temps here are crazy so I wouldn't be surprised if we see further intensification before the Yucatan landfall. With Beryl slowing down could make a run at Cat 4 before the landfall here and if further north the likelihood the core survives into the GoM is quite high. Then we have to see what happens but a major hurricane into the US shouldn't be ruled out.

This storm has probably been one of the most dramatic that has been tracked in recent years. Would easily rival Dorian and Irma for excitement imo. It's really been a long time since we have had a real major hurricane Caribbean Cruiser. Last one was Felix in 2007 if I recall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow...umm, at this point all I will say is that Texas and Mexico better be prepared. Beryl's story is not over yet.

[AtlanticWind]

According to recon, it’s still moving WNW. By now, it was supposed to be heading due west with even a possible southerly component on a lot of model runs. So no, farther north is definitely still on the table.

Thank you, on the advisory that just came out it said her movement was West.

I don't know where they got West from when recon shows it going wnw

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

[LARanger]

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

That's 13.5 degrees off from due west . . . if each direction of this type covers 22.5 degrees (11.25 to either side), then yes, it actually kinda is WNW.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Texas needs to watch out because Beryl coming in stronger and a bit further north in the Yucatán = less weakening = stronger emergence into the GoM = more chance of getting stronger and moving more northward towards the Texas coast.

FWIW, Hurricane Gilbert hit Cozumel & the Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 5, but came into the Gulf as a Category 2. I’m not sure what the forward speed was, but from what I read he spent about a day passing over the Yucatán. Granted, Beryl has been pretty resilient, but I can see why the models are predicting significant weakling as it crosses the Yucatán.

[CronkPSU]

NHC says it is moving WEST now

10:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 19.6°N 85.5°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph