ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sailingtime]

She's not even close to the coast and she is expanding. I can definitely see her getting back up to a Cat 4 before landfall and she has a minuscule chance of missing Cozumel completely.

The model guidance has been spot on with this storm. I agree that 90 percent of storms coming up from the Western Carribean do go through the channel between Yucatan and Cuba on their trek Northward. This storm however, appears to be on a steady course basically West and looks to cross the Yucatan tomorrow. This storm is not on a Northerly course as far as skirting the Yucatan from what I can see.

[AtlanticWind]

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

That's 13.5 degrees off from due west . . . if each direction of this type covers 22.5 degrees (11.25 to either side), then yes, it actually kinda is WNW.

The storm is moving west as present per NHC

[LARanger]

NHC says it is moving WEST now

10:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 19.6°N 85.5°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Best I can tell from this, it was doing west but may be jogging a wee bit north at the end. However, without a clearly defined eye, she could've thrown it into reverse and I'd be hard pressed to say either way.

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

That's 13.5 degrees off from due west . . . if each direction of this type covers 22.5 degrees (11.25 to either side), then yes, it actually kinda is WNW.

The storm is moving west as present per NHC

Oh, I wasn't getting into the current direction until the text and .gif above just now . . . the earlier 283.5 reference was just doing the math based on the numbers you provided of the status since 11a.

[HurricaneBelle]

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

That's 13.5 degrees off from due west . . . if each direction of this type covers 22.5 degrees (11.25 to either side), then yes, it actually kinda is WNW.

Fine, it's moving WWNW

[AtlanticWind]

Cozumel could escape the worst of this if Beryl stays on west course a little longer, has slowed though.

[drexas]

Looked to me like it was moving essentially directly west this afternoon, but over the past few hours it has started gaining latitude again. I'd say it's headed quite close to Cozumel at its current heading. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropic ... 24_lbj.gif

[canebeard]

From the 10 pm CDT advisory--- "It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it
reaches the coast."

You don't say? !

[LARanger]

Since 11am it has gone .6 north and 2.5 west, that is not WNW

That's 13.5 degrees off from due west . . . if each direction of this type covers 22.5 degrees (11.25 to either side), then yes, it actually kinda is WNW.

Fine, it's moving WWNW

I had to look up if there was a term between, actually. "West by North" would be the best fit for AtlanticWind's .6 N and 2.5 W note . . . but yeah, WWNW is way less confusing.

[quixoft]

We live in the Hill Country of Texas and are still in an Extreme Draught. One of our lakes is at 2% of its normal level. So even it goes ashore in NE Mexico and is trending WNW-NW-N, the possibility of us getting some beneficial rains has increased for next week. As long as it produces that rain, I don't really care where it comes ashore. Even it came ashore just south of the border, the onshore winds should drive plenty of moisture inland.

I'm guessing you're talking about Medina. I grew up in Helotes in the 70s and 80s(in the Austin area now) and that lake has always either been full or empty over the course of my life. Take heart because it'll fill up again. But then go nearly dry again! Rinse and repeat similar to Buchanan, Travis and all the central Texas lakes not named LBJ or Marble Falls.

It's the nature of the area. It's years of drought and then floods. I feel bad for the folks who moved here and bought expensive lake front property in the good years thinking that was the norm only to realize a year or two later it's not!

[MississippiWx]

The point of the original WNW statement was to say it still has a north component to it as opposed to a due west prediction by all models. The north component has been proven with the spaghetti models superimposed on top of satellite loops.

[AtlanticWind]

Hurricane center estimates about 18 hours over the Yucatan, that could be tough on a small system

[Stormgodess]

The point of the original WNW statement was to say it still has a north component to it as opposed to a due west prediction by all models. The north component has been proven with the spaghetti models superimposed on top of satellite loops.

She has ran North of all the models since the very beginning. Sure not by much but enough to make a difference

[Blinhart]

She's not even close to the coast and she is expanding. I can definitely see her getting back up to a Cat 4 before landfall and she has a minuscule chance of missing Cozumel completely.

The model guidance has been spot on with this storm. I agree that 90 percent of storms coming up from the Western Carribean do go through the channel between Yucatan and Cuba on their trek Northward. This storm however, appears to be on a steady course basically West and looks to cross the Yucatan tomorrow. This storm is not on a Northerly course as far as skirting the Yucatan from what I can see.

I wasn't talking about going through the Channel, but missing Cozumel to the South.

[LadyBug72]

The point of the original WNW statement was to say it still has a north component to it as opposed to a due west prediction by all models. The north component has been proven with the spaghetti models superimposed on top of satellite loops.

I’m sorry I even asked about motion… I was genuinely curious about the movement.

[mpic]

I was under the impression that the northern part of the Yucatan isn't really mountainous at all. So the weakening is just from how long it will be over land?

[mpic]

The point of the original WNW statement was to say it still has a north component to it as opposed to a due west prediction by all models. The north component has been proven with the spaghetti models superimposed on top of satellite loops.

I’m sorry I even asked about motion… I was genuinely curious about the movement.

Tensions are high and about to get worse.

[Blinhart]

I was under the impression that the northern part of the Yucatan isn't really mountainous at all. So the weakening is just from how long it will be over land?

That is the simplest way to put it, but speed and winds aloft also are to be considered in how much degradation happens.

[Blinhart]

I will go anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston is going to get the landfall.

[Woofde]

I was under the impression that the northern part of the Yucatan isn't really mountainous at all. So the weakening is just from how long it will be over land?

You're correct, the Yucatan is relatively flat throughout. The North is especially flat and not known to weaken cyclones particularly fast.

[Typhoon Hunter]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1809065139984851427




Pressure appears to be rising again and core taking a battering