ATL: BERYL - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

ICON swings back toward Galveston this run…

[tolakram]

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/ZpbI8Vl.png

Quite interesting. What does the ye ol EURO say?

[tolakram]

[IcyTundra]

https://i.imgur.com/ZpbI8Vl.png

Quite interesting. What does the ye ol EURO say?

18Z Euro had Northern Mexico but the 18Z Euro Ensembles shifted slightly east compared to the 12Z run. 0Z Euro will be running later tonight in about 2 hours.

[HurricaneBrain]

Now moving inland over Louisiana and Arkansas.

[Stormgodess]

Now moving inland over Louisiana and Arkansas.

Can you share a link please? Or point me in the right direction.

[HurricaneBrain]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Now moving inland over Louisiana and Arkansas.

Can you share a link please? Or point me in the right direction.

[South Texas Storms]

0z ICON doesn't look realistic to me. Storm would pretty much have to move straight northwest from now and be at the northern tip of the Yucatan tomorrow afternoon. It's all on its own in showing that and the storm is still moving just slightly north of due west right now.

[Clearcloudz]

starting to slow down before landfall.

[ROCK]

well at least it been consistent...got to give some love for that...lol

[BobHarlem]

0z icon

[HurricaneBrain]

Agreed, but to be fair the ICON does show a west movement the next 6 hours before turning NW.

0z ICON doesn't look realistic to me. Storm would pretty much have to move straight northwest from now and be at the northern tip of the Yucatan tomorrow afternoon. It's all on its own in showing that and the storm is still moving just slightly north of due west right now.

[ROCK]

Right around Port Lavaca.....doesn't really blow it up over the GOM either. Wouldn't that be something if the ICON, NAVGEM and the JMA which are all probably the worst models to look at unless to be entertained, sniffed this out before the big boys GFS, UKMET and EURO. and 90 hrs before a US landfall. Typically they are locked in by this time...this run would pile a lot of water into West Bay and the West end of Galveston...take it right over Houston from the west...

[Clearcloudz]

[sphelps8681]

Local met still forecasting near Brownsville 15 mins ago. I just don't know anymore. He could be right or wrong. Just don't know. Waiting now till it crosses over and wait and see. Still all prepped up so I am good.

[hurricane2025]

Local met still forecasting near Brownsville 15 mins ago. I just don't know anymore. He could be right or wrong. Just don't know. Waiting now till it crosses over and wait and see. Still all prepped up so I am good.

Don’t watch Greg he’s old

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs coming in right of 18z so far. Heading for somewhere in TX

[Stratton23]

CMC really initialized this at 1001 mb, yeah we can definitely throw the op models into the garbage bin, completely useless at this point
GFS was still 12 mb too high with the initial pressure,
throw em in the garbage

[Cpv17]

Local met still forecasting near Brownsville 15 mins ago. I just don't know anymore. He could be right or wrong. Just don't know. Waiting now till it crosses over and wait and see. Still all prepped up so I am good.

Brownsville to Matagorda has a decent chance at a landfall. Will know a lot more in 24 hours. Best chance for a landfall right now is between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas imo.