HurricaneBrain wrote:Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.wx98 wrote:HurricaneBrain wrote:There’s a situation where we could see a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf tomorrow taking aim at populated Texas beaches that aren’t expecting it. With 4th of Julyers heading home Sunday, it would be a cluster if evacuations were ordered. I know the majority of people in Galveston would be unprepared, especially with local mets continuing to assure locals of a Brownsville landfall (not saying this doesn’t end up happening but it is trending away from that solution).
A direct Galveston strike is highly unlikely. Brownsville to Corpus seems like the favored location as of now. That isn’t to say Galveston won’t see any impacts, as surge could still be an issue.
Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.
There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.