ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

First VIS imagery of Beryl this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/vDzK2jI.jpeg

Whoa, it looks like Beryl took a big jog north if I understand where the eye might be!

It looks like a second “spinning vortex” or lower center of circulation or cluster of clouds just ato the northern tip of the Yucatán. I don’t think that’s the eye.

That's correct. You can follow the northern side of the center of circulation easily on radar right now.

[wx98]

The NHC has the same messaging issue with intensity as well, but worse. What happened with Beryl seems to be happening with more storms as of late (Michael anyone?). The official intensity forecast gets completely blown out of the water due to RI and people end up facing a CAT 4/5 when they were told a far weaker storm was coming just 48 hours before. They may bury in the discussion something about "potential for intensification beyond forecast" but people aren't seeing that. I know they don't want to start a panic and over hype a storm, but they need to figure out a way to get the messaging out when there's a reasonable chance for RI and the strength cap is significantly higher than the official forecast. Maybe using some type of percentage figure like the SPC does for violent tornadoes? I don't know.

Yea, but how? We've got to improve the tools first. And if Beryl ends up going south then how does this message read? It's fair criticism, but no sure fire solution that I can see.

The tools are being improved constantly but I don't think we'll ever to really be able to accurately forecast intensity, no more than we can forecast the exact location of a tornado, at least not in our lifetime. The SPC uses a hatched area for tornado forecasts whenever there's a risk of violent tornadoes, that's on top of their base tornado risk percentage. That differentiates a 10% tornado risk day with no risk of severe tornadoes, vs one with severe tornadoes. I could see that working the same way with hurricanes. Take Beryl, originally forecast to hit the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 2. If this was a normal June storm with very low risk of RI, just keep the forecast as it is. If it's 2024 and there is a risk of RI, there needs to be something on the forecast indicating that risk. Maybe just adding another symbol next to the windspeed number or hurricane symbol that indicates a risk of RI beyond forecast intensity. I don't know, public outreach isn't my field of expertise, I just know the current messaging method isn't sufficient anymore, I've seen it firsthand.

In my experience as a meteorologist, probabilistic messaging and extra statements of uncertainty just confuse the general public. All they want to know is where, when, and how strong. When you start talking “if this, then that, but if not, then this when this happens” you lose people immediately.

[GCANE]

First VIS imagery of Beryl this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/vDzK2jI.jpeg

Whoa, it looks like Beryl took a big jog north if I understand where the eye might be!

It looks like a second “spinning vortex” or lower center of circulation or cluster of clouds just ato the northern tip of the Yucatán. I don’t think that’s the eye.

LL and ML vorts likely decoupled

[typhoonty]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

It's unfortunate our modeling is so bad, but anyone living in a hurricane zone needs to know the dangers. You get into this situation where maybe the NHC reacts quicker and warns sooner, only to have the models bend back and the storm ends up 500 miles south. There's no winning here, BUT I think it's fair to say that with continued late model failures it's wise to somehow improve the simple message that you are in a danger zone. But would that cover the entire gulf coast every storm?

It did during Katrina, look at the images of cones the day before it made landfall in FL. I’ve heard a lot of consternation about the cone but 20 years ago I NEVER heard from anyone it was too big. I think that’s where the public perception of the cone being an impacts cone is born out from.

Fwiw. Models have INIT Beryl 20 mb too low and 24 hours I posted to my page that I had a Cat 2 into Freeport landfall for Beryl, outside the cone at the time. When models can’t even INIT close to correctly, and intensity plays a part in track, you get a cascade.

Sometimes hugging the TCVN can be bad, I wonder if they have the capability of throwing a model completely out of the TCVN and come up with a modified weighted TCVN. Their fault during Ian was trusting the TCVN too much because they almost nailed Ians track and intensity on advisory one and then the gfs had that 24 hour period where it had Ian going to Louisiana even though it made no sense meteorologically. They still adjusted it west to the TCVN.

Most important rule of forecasting for me is to throw out a model completely if It doesn’t match up with reality. If you can’t trust it at hour 6, never trust it. The gfs certainly hasn’t the entire time, and has been south of reality as a result.

[cycloneye]

I leave this and go away.

[kevin]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

I know one thing, Beryl will be a fascinating case study for decades to come.

[NDG]

Any chance of an eye reformation further north, especially while she’s over land? Satellite looks like most of the CDO moved north a bit.

No, its core is still fairly strong and will not stay inland that long for its main CoC to die out and for a new circulation to reform further north.

[Pipelines182]

Yea, but how? We've got to improve the tools first. And if Beryl ends up going south then how does this message read? It's fair criticism, but no sure fire solution that I can see.

The tools are being improved constantly but I don't think we'll ever to really be able to accurately forecast intensity, no more than we can forecast the exact location of a tornado, at least not in our lifetime. The SPC uses a hatched area for tornado forecasts whenever there's a risk of violent tornadoes, that's on top of their base tornado risk percentage. That differentiates a 10% tornado risk day with no risk of severe tornadoes, vs one with severe tornadoes. I could see that working the same way with hurricanes. Take Beryl, originally forecast to hit the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 2. If this was a normal June storm with very low risk of RI, just keep the forecast as it is. If it's 2024 and there is a risk of RI, there needs to be something on the forecast indicating that risk. Maybe just adding another symbol next to the windspeed number or hurricane symbol that indicates a risk of RI beyond forecast intensity. I don't know, public outreach isn't my field of expertise, I just know the current messaging method isn't sufficient anymore, I've seen it firsthand.

In my experience as a meteorologist, probabilistic messaging and extra statements of uncertainty just confuse the general public. All they want to know is where, when, and how strong. When you start talking “if this, then that, but if not, then this when this happens” you lose people immediately.

We already use percentages for tornadoes, heck we even do for rain. While you do run into the issue where people complain about it raining/not raining when it was "forecast to rain" that doesn't stop us from using percentages because that's the best way to forecast those events. What's worse, causing some confusion or misleading the public? Because the current messaging is the latter.

[Frank P]

Is it just my imagination, or did she almost skirt the tip of the Yucatan? Seems like she took a big jog north, limiting her land interaction.

Looks maybe a hair north of WNW on Cancun Radar to me. Click on the cancun radar image and play obviously. Center looks to be around Valladolid or so.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

Been watching it too Steve and since its eye is not easy to follow, I could discern a slight north of wnw motion as well...

[Kazmit]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

Looks to be about halfway across the peninsula already if it keeps its current heading.

[TallyTracker]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

It appears to already be nearly half way across with an intact core yet. That’s very disturbing. It may unwind a bit but if it has any semblance of a core at splashdown, Beryl could come back fast.

[Tireman4]

As I said, a direct strike is unlikely, but they will likely feel some effects in the form of surge and outer bands.

With all due respect, please do not say that. You absolutely could be right or you could be wrong. ALL residents along the Texas coast should be prepared for anything. Stay tuned to the NHC and your local NWS. With landfalling tropical systems, everything can be in play. Ike, Allison and Harvey come to mind. Thank you.

I have as much of a right to express my opinion as the multiple people who previously stated (wrongly) that the hurricane would go north of Cozumel and even the Yucatán altogether. I did not say Galveston would not see any impacts at all.

Also, I don’t need a reminder to stay on topic, as I should be able to defend myself to someone telling me not to say something.

With all due respect ( and I stated that before), I asked you not to say that because there are folks on here that pay attention to all that is said. Now, if you are a pro met, please make sure the admins know so they can change the color of your name. When someone makes a bold statement, many folks will take it as gospel. You are entitled to your opinion as we all are. If you do make bold statements, there are disclaimers at the bottom of the page. Lastly, I did not mean to offend. This is all I will say about it. As always, thank you for your contributions to our amazing weatherboard. Again, if you are a pro met, please tell Porta or Mark, they can help you with that.

[Pipelines182]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

It appears to already be nearly half way across with an intact core yet. That’s very disturbing. It may unwind a bit but if it has any semblance of a core at splashdown, Beryl could come back fast.

Doesn't bode well for Texas. The biggest issue with this more northern trek across the Yucatan is that this part of the landmass is a dang pancake, think Florida, the highest point there is probably a landfill. I wouldn't be surprised to see a completely intact Beryl once it emerges on the other side. At least the water won't be as hot as it was in the Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

I know one thing, Beryl will be a fascinating case study for decades to come.

While Beryl is a terrifying storm alone, I really hope that shear-resistant storms like that are not the theme of this season.

[IsabelaWeather]

I am not surprised Beryl is heading to Texas. I hope we don't have another Harvey in our hands as it slows down before making landfall.

Not surprised now after the past 10 days a lot of folks with good knowledge were thinking Beryl would be ZERO threat to the U.S. coast?

No one ever said that. Stop twisting the words around. This is a straight up lie.

What was said was, it didn't appear to be a threat. Which was true at the time, but the storm changed the environment sufficiently to stay stronger and get pulled more north. Some people need a large window to prepare and we can only rely on what we are seeing at the time, but obviously a lot can change. The normal person doesn't need a 10day lead time.

[Hurricane2022]

Beryl's track so far.

ACE: 31.1275

------
Credits: dapiya.top

[Portastorm]

MODERATOR WARNING ... let's cut the accusations and innuendo towards other posters and exhibit some maturity and restraint please. I'd rather we not have to start taking administrative actions against folks here. But we will if we have to.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I leave this and go away.

https://i.imgur.com/DOtewMH.jpeg

Looks like she’ll be back out in the Gulf by late lunchtime CST. Doesn’t seem like it has decoupled either. Might come out as a Category 1 instead of TS.

[IsabelaWeather]

The tools are being improved constantly but I don't think we'll ever to really be able to accurately forecast intensity, no more than we can forecast the exact location of a tornado, at least not in our lifetime. The SPC uses a hatched area for tornado forecasts whenever there's a risk of violent tornadoes, that's on top of their base tornado risk percentage. That differentiates a 10% tornado risk day with no risk of severe tornadoes, vs one with severe tornadoes. I could see that working the same way with hurricanes. Take Beryl, originally forecast to hit the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 2. If this was a normal June storm with very low risk of RI, just keep the forecast as it is. If it's 2024 and there is a risk of RI, there needs to be something on the forecast indicating that risk. Maybe just adding another symbol next to the windspeed number or hurricane symbol that indicates a risk of RI beyond forecast intensity. I don't know, public outreach isn't my field of expertise, I just know the current messaging method isn't sufficient anymore, I've seen it firsthand.

In my experience as a meteorologist, probabilistic messaging and extra statements of uncertainty just confuse the general public. All they want to know is where, when, and how strong. When you start talking “if this, then that, but if not, then this when this happens” you lose people immediately.

We already use percentages for tornadoes, heck we even do for rain. While you do run into the issue where people complain about it raining/not raining when it was "forecast to rain" that doesn't stop us from using percentages because that's the best way to forecast those events. What's worse, causing some confusion or misleading the public? Because the current messaging is the latter.

I think the cone is sufficient. The problem is the average normie will always think the forecast is wrong. If you have a cat 5 bearing down on the coast like Beryl, and the Hurricane winds extend out 20 miles, the majority of people in a given warning or percentage area will be wrong. You could have a storm coming in to miami and the at the last minute it wobbles north and hit west palm beach miami would miss the eyewall where the really bad weather is. Everyone in miami would get complacent because the weathermen were wrong, even though they werent.

Hurricanes are so fickle, they are very large but also in a way very small and its hard to forecast a specific person's weather.

Ive seen people complain because it was "supposed to rain" when it rained over the entire CWA except a small part over a bunch of people, and they all said the weatherman was wrong, its the unreasonable expectations of the general public, the NHC does an amazing job forecasting these storms. Intensity is the hardest part, there is no way NHC should have put out a cat 5 in the initial cone.

Take 2 storms with the same conditions, one might blow up like beryl, one might struggle for some reason. Can't really forecast that.

[Steve]

Beryl's track so far.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmZ5Sb8lj
ACE: 31.1275

------
Credits: dapiya.top

I haven't even thought about ACE. That's pretty incredible. Probably going to end up around 35ish you'd think with the time remaining over water. That's a nice boost to what's looking like it might be a high ACE season.