ATL: BERYL - Models

[HoustonFrog]

Wild how the three pro mets I listen to (three different places) were all very wrong and the ICON was closest to right it appears. Just like two days ago there was a post from one basically saying Houston may get some rain bands and basically dismissed it entirely. Obviously one on here also.

Wild changes in track. Less than two days ago NHC advisory 19 had a cone south Tampico to about Corpus. Cone is now 200 miles further north/east.

[shah83]

I think we really need to be concerned about a Humberto or Otis situation if Beryl does a hard turn north east of Matagorda Bay longitude.

Also, obviously, dangerous rainfall in major urban Texas areas as well.

[JayTX]

The big recurve most models are showing just after landfall could get very interesting for those of us along the Texss if it happens a little sooner.

[Steve]

I think we really need to be concerned about a Humberto or Otis situation if Beryl does a hard turn north east of Matagorda Bay longitude.

Also, obviously, dangerous rainfall in major urban Texas areas as well.

Yeah, you never know with those western Gulf storms. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a lot of experience with them in early July since this is one of the slowest parts of the early season. Any slowdown just means more opportunity. Fortunately the MJO isn't tracking with anything that would hint to Beryl getting super strong.

[TallyTracker]

I’m very concerned that this northward shift is going to give Beryl too much time to restrengthen. Looking like 2.5 - 3 days over water before Texas landfall. That’s plenty of time to again exceed the intensity forecast by a couple of categories easily.

[sphelps8681]

Wild how the three pro mets I listen to (three different places) were all very wrong and the ICON was closest to right it appears. Just like two days ago there was a post from one basically saying Houston may get some rain bands and basically dismissed it entirely. Obviously one on here also.

Wild changes in track. Less than two days ago NHC advisory 19 had a cone south Tampico to about Corpus. Cone is now 200 miles further north/east.

My locals did the same thing. They hold tight to that one model.

[Steve]

Wild how the three pro mets I listen to (three different places) were all very wrong and the ICON was closest to right it appears. Just like two days ago there was a post from one basically saying Houston may get some rain bands and basically dismissed it entirely. Obviously one on here also.

Wild changes in track. Less than two days ago NHC advisory 19 had a cone south Tampico to about Corpus. Cone is now 200 miles further north/east.

My locals did the same thing. They hold tight to that one model.

I was watching some guy on YouTube yesterday who had a red white and blue plaid jacket. I think it was a Corpus Christi station. He featured the "Fox exclusive" model that I suppose his station pays for. It had been doing well earlier in the system's lifespan and so he emphasized the south of Mexico border that his model was showing since it has done so well so far. That's not a bad approach, but a private radar derived model may or may not be something to stake one's reputation on. People don't forget tropical screw-ups. They might forgive but we always remember which station was saying what.

[Wampadawg]

I think regardless if its Models, your weather source or in general anything always best to weigh all the information and come to your own conclusions.Everything is so polarizing these days ,thats why I dig this forum.

[Steve]

Mesoscales are running. 12Z FV3 High-Resolution will go out to 60 hours on this run so fairly close to landfall. The FV3 starts tracking around latitude 21 or 22. It's not a tropical model and is better for systems farther north, but it certainly looks to be on a trajectory north of Corpus if you extrapolate the rest of the run (it's only out to 36 hours so far). Also it's slowly deepening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=36

I'm going to disregard the NAM 12z because I think Beryl is too far south for it to handle. It jogs back west after exiting the Yucatan on a WNWish heading.

[Steve]

FV-3 now out to 49 hours on Tidbits (others may have it farther along). It looks to be about a degree and a half east of Brownsville. Oh wait. It just kicked up to 51 hours. So slowing and intensifying. Still dropping at 52 hours now at 994mb. It's a hair north of South Padre (the city) and a bit east. Maybe this is heading for the central Texas coast or points farther north on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=52

I've got the center at 52 hours at about 26.7/95.27

[Steve]

FV-3 getting interesting toward the end of the run. 992 at 56 hours and appears to be starting to pull up with a northern component. Press play to run since they don't want us hotlinking from Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=56

This run still has 4 hours to fill in. We'll see where FV-3 goes with those hours. Still intensifying? Pulling north or moving NW inland? Stay tuned.

FWIW, NAM 12km is south of the TX/Mexico border. Too far south for it to really see. It think's it comes off pretty much just as a closed low so never gets back to 999mb until just at landfall. I think it has to be ignored (and I'm ignoring it).

[Steve]

FV-3 is complete. It tapers it off around 991mb. It's moving about NNW at the end of 60 hours (7pm Sunday night).

It's got the circulation center around 27.6N and 95.27W. This is about 2 degrees east of Corpus Christi which is 27.8N and 97.4W.

[ROCK]

yeah the 12Z NAM is too far south...you can hit them up for upstream pattern over the CONSUS passed about 25N is sort of my bench. Obviously a deep storm will feel that trof more.

[DukeMu]

It was mostly all alone earlier in the week. It was probably too far east, but it telegraphed the northern move regardless of whether it ends up 2 degrees farther west than what it had progged a few days ago. Globals had different solutions from moving into northern Mexico and heading west or heading into the RGV and moving W/WNW. Icon always liked that northerly component. It's rare that any models outside of the GFS or ECMWF can score that single-model coup. If it pans out, it doesn't mean trust the ICON or anything. It just means to watch its outputs and take it into consideration. Like all the models, it's frequently wrong.

I think we should treat all models that way. I see a lot of people pick their favorite model and put all their faith in it, but that’s not how they’re intended to be used. Each one is an individual tool that is used to derive a consensus. You can’t build a house with only a power drill, even if it’s the best power drill on the market.

100.

This was an OG set up. Dying ridge and emerging trough, coupled with a tropical cyclone with a powerful outflow and high pressure over her like a protective bubble. Also, there was abnormally high water temp. The set-up, given a dying El Nino, was more more like late August than early July. The models struggled with Beryl. Mets will be studying Beryl for many years.

[Steve]

yeah the 12Z NAM is too far south...you can hit them up for upstream pattern over the CONSUS passed about 30N is sort of my bench. Obviously a deep storm will feel that trof more.

What do you think about the FV3? It's clearly indicating a landfall north of Corpus since it's roughly 2 degree east while barely a couple decimals south of there. LRAK probably gonna be breaking out that old-guy surfboard if so. Globals ought to start running soon. ICON is out to 12 hours so far, Let's see where it goes.

[Frank P]

FV-3 is complete. It tapers it off around 991mb. It's moving about NNW at the end of 60 hours (7pm Sunday night).

It's got the circulation center around 27.6N and 95.27W. This is about 2 degrees east of Corpus Christi which is 27.8N and 97.4W.

here the last part of the run, which appears to be heading south of Galveston if extrapolated. Click on map to see it run

[LARanger]

ICON 12Z running now, not far into it yet but it is a tad north of prior for the storm post-Yucatan.

[hurricane2025]

Icon Galveston Texas nails it

[Steve]

FV-3 is complete. It tapers it off around 991mb. It's moving about NNW at the end of 60 hours (7pm Sunday night).

It's got the circulation center around 27.6N and 95.27W. This is about 2 degrees east of Corpus Christi which is 27.8N and 97.4W.

here the last part of the run, which appears to be heading south of Galveston if extrapolated. Click on map to see it run
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Rjx687K/fv3-hires-ref-frzn-scus-fh52-60.gif [/url]

Yeah for sure. It would finish south of Galveston but you never know if it's going to head NNW/N/NNE after there. ICON is absolutely has a NW and NNW component so far. I wouldn't be surprised if this run hits between Galveston and Intracoastal City, LA (south of Lafayette).

[kevin]

12z ICON says only 5 - 7 more hours before leaving Yucatan.