ATL: BERYL - Models

[hurricane2025]

Hits Galveston

[Steve]

Icon Galveston Texas nails it

Hey 2025, you have a link that's faster than Tidbits you care to share? It's only out to 33 hours. Thanks.

[ROCK]

yeah at 42hr looks like that trof is deeper than normal over the CONUS...think these next frames should start turning it.

[hurricane2025]

How do I post it

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

[HurricaneBrain]

ICON with a Galveston landfall moving NNE.

[Steve]

How do I post it

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

Oh damn. That's 970. Probably a solid Cat 2. Itching to see what the big dogs have to say or if ICON stands alone.

[ROCK]

lol it sure hasnt changed very much...

[tolakram]

How do I post it

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

That is a commercial site, so you don't. For other images I've updated a sticky post a few days ago explaining how to use imgur.

[Hurricane2022]

How do I post it

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

You only needs to put the image link like so.

[Stormlover70]

At this rate northern texas or even LA needs to watch this. If it bombs over the 29degree bath water. Models have struggled with intensity thus far.

[Stormlover70]

How do I post it

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

Oh damn. That's 970. Probably a solid Cat 2. Itching to see what the big dogs have to say or if ICON stands alone.

icon be the winner thus far and navgem ...who would have thought.

[HoustonFrog]

Hits south side of Galveston, very little change from 06z. A little stronger.

[ROCK]

966 is nothing to sneeze at coming up thru Surfside puts all of Galveston in the NE quad..wow ICON really has it out for Galveston / Houston run after run after run..

[jaguars_22]

Mine as well put the whole gulf coast in the cone all the way to Florida…. If your in the middle of the cone now your prob safe me in Victoria

[Steve]

Runs it up east Texas and has it just NE of Shreveport at the LA/AR border at 84 hours. Icon's depiction at that time still has it pretty intact for what it is.

[ROCK]

Runs it up east Texas and has it just NE of Shreveport at the LA/AR border at 84 hours. Icon's depiction at that time still has it pretty intact for what it is.

Unfortunately I am in West Tx so just sinking air and 105 temps with a breeze of a hair dryer....could use some rain badly..

[LARanger]

So, I have been thinking for the past couple of days that this storm-specific model verification for public consumption is something that should be relatively achievable, even as a value addition to an existing website's display of models.

Turns out it already exists.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al022024/

Sadly ICON isn't included, but . . .

[Steve]

This is out of the forecast discussion from 10:00. Keep this in mind as the 12Z models run. I'll be back later on to catch the late cycle stuff.

While the track
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

[IcyTundra]

12Z ICON is stronger and looks a little further east than the 6Z. 6Z was around Freeport/Surfside while this run looks like San Luis Pass.

[IcyTundra]

12Z ICON