ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

He did it once again.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809198187695231044

He called it a “junk storm”. Well, where he decided to go perhaps. Aside from that, will be and still is a cyclone for the ages.

[Sciencerocks]

[wx98]

He did it once again.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809198187695231044

He called it a “junk storm”. Well, where he decided to go perhaps. Aside from that, will be and still is a cyclone for the ages.

It was weakening at landfall and those never seem to deliver the impacts that their category/wind speed may suggest. Winds often aren’t mixing to the surface in those situations. The rapidly intensifying storms at landfall are always way worse, even at similar intensity to a weakening storm.

[Pipelines182]

The NHC can't solve the innumeracy of the general public.

Well according to their mission statement; "The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards. " The forecast graphics they issue are part of their job and they're designed to translate that big block of forecast discussion that most people don't understand into something they can understand. I'm sure their job would be far easier if they only had to worry about issuing their forecast discussion, but then they wouldn't be doing their job.

[tropicwatch]

Just north of Tulum on the east coast of Yucatan and Planta Las Coloradas on the north coast of Yucatan still reporting ts sustained winds.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This doesn't look like it is losing organization. Weakening, yes (its over land). It is also not going to be over land as long as was originally forecast. This could really get going once it gets into the gulf
FYI...Atlantic ACE is 32.1 which is the avg for August 29th

[cheezyWXguy]

He did it once again.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809198187695231044

He called it a “junk storm”. Well, where he decided to go perhaps. Aside from that, will be and still is a cyclone for the ages.

It was weakening at landfall and those never seem to deliver the impacts that their category/wind speed may suggest. Winds often aren’t mixing to the surface in those situations. The rapidly intensifying storms at landfall are always way worse, even at similar intensity to a weakening storm.

He also said he rode it out in playa del carmen iirc, which would have been shielded by cozumel island from some of the stronger winds

[TexasF6]

I have a feeling Beryl will overperform once she gets into the Gulf. This storm has been tenacious and resilient.

[wx98]

He called it a “junk storm”. Well, where he decided to go perhaps. Aside from that, will be and still is a cyclone for the ages.

It was weakening at landfall and those never seem to deliver the impacts that their category/wind speed may suggest. Winds often aren’t mixing to the surface in those situations. The rapidly intensifying storms at landfall are always way worse, even at similar intensity to a weakening storm.

He also said he rode it out in playa del carmen iirc, which would have been shielded by cozumel island from some of the stronger winds

Regardless of where he was doesn’t change the rest of the statement. Weakening storms often underwhelm expectations on raw wind. Surge is always a different situation.

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

[cheezyWXguy]

It was weakening at landfall and those never seem to deliver the impacts that their category/wind speed may suggest. Winds often aren’t mixing to the surface in those situations. The rapidly intensifying storms at landfall are always way worse, even at similar intensity to a weakening storm.

He also said he rode it out in playa del carmen iirc, which would have been shielded by cozumel island from some of the stronger winds

Regardless of where he was doesn’t change the rest of the statement. Weakening storms often underwhelm expectations on raw wind. Surge is always a different situation.

Ha, I didn’t say it changed your statement, I was agreeing and giving further reason why conditions weren’t as bad as he expected. Both statements can be true.

[ROCK]

wont be on the land very much longer with that trek on VIS...few more hours and splash down is some nice warm bath water and an ULL to its NW.

[Bimms]

I'm thinking the Houston Mets will eventually start to come around and start issuing some more serious warnings. I'm thinking a Galveston area landfall is a possibility. I don't think it'll be south of Corpus but more up on the coast, possibly into the Galveston Island area. It'll be interesting to see what she does once she is fully over the water. Like others have said, she may outperform the current predictions. If we base forecasts on her historical actions, then I would say it's a safe presumption since she has defied all odds and has outperformed all predictions so far. I would not be surprised if TS/Hurricane watches start to get issued for the counties in the Houston metro.

[vbhoutex]

wont be on the land very much longer with that trek on VIS...few more hours and splash down is some nice warm bath water and an ULL to its NW.

And you better be ready to hunker down!! The trends are not our friends. The Texas coast is in for some fun. NOT!!!!

[Portastorm]

wont be on the land very much longer with that trek on VIS...few more hours and splash down is some nice warm bath water and an ULL to its NW.

And you better be ready to hunker down!! The trends are not our friends. The Texas coast is in for some fun. NOT!!!!

It seems like 2024 has been the year for extreme weather in SE Texas. The trend continues.

[HurricaneBrain]

I disagree with this. There is an influx of mets backtracking and saying the same thing. This goes back to what I was saying earlier. We have a storm forecasted to move north along a vertically aligned coast. With a storm moving north, parallel to the Texas coast, there will be a greater distance in coastline from one edge of the cone to the other in comparison to the distance of coastline in the edges of a cone heading toward Louisiana/Alabama for example.

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

[vbhoutex]

I'm thinking the Houston Mets will eventually start to come around and start issuing some more serious warnings. I'm thinking a Galveston area landfall is a possibility. I don't think it'll be south of Corpus but more up on the coast, possibly into the Galveston Island area. It'll be interesting to see what she does once she is fully over the water. Like others have said, she may outperform the current predictions. If we base forecasts on her historical actions, then I would say it's a safe presumption since she has defied all odds and has outperformed all predictions so far. I would not be surprised if TS/Hurricane watches start to get issued for the counties in the Houston metro.

I don't expect a Galveston landfall, but Corpus to Matagorda is most certainly in play. IMO, CAT 2 to CAT 3 landfall intensity is certainly a possibility depending on track.

[Tireman4]

I disagree with this. There is an influx of mets backtracking and saying the same thing. This goes back to what I was saying earlier. We have a storm forecasted to move north along a vertically aligned coast. With a storm moving north, parallel to the Texas coast, there will be a greater distance in coastline from one edge of the cone to the other in comparison to the distance of coastline in the edges of a cone heading toward Louisiana/Alabama for example.

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

Not all pro mets in Houston are of this opinion. Matt is conservative when it comes to weather, and that is great. He did readily admit that he whiffed on the derecho (the intensity, that is, lol). Blake Matthews, Pete Calvin and Travis Herzog have been worried about this for a little while.

[MississippiWx]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

This is a pretty irresponsible statement by a well-respected met. Beryl could easily parallel the TX coastline, strengthening along the way to the Houston area. What he says isn’t even fully true. Houston is in the cone because the center of the storm could hit there from the Gulf. Yes, the center of the cone would make his statement true, but Beryl has proven it doesn’t want to travel to the center.

[abk_0710]

Is there still a chance that Beryl could come more towards Louisiana? I have PTSD from past storms, so I just want to know what's to come.