ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pipelines182]

wont be on the land very much longer with that trek on VIS...few more hours and splash down is some nice warm bath water and an ULL to its NW.

Models and the NHC are forecasting it to make a westward shift, while slowing down,, leaving Mexico somewhere around Merida. Assuming that happens, that'll leave Beryl overland for several more hours.

[Tireman4]

Todd Crawford
@tcrawf_nh
I'm struggling to believe that these SST anomalies are real...been doing this a long time and can't remember ever seeing a case where a major hurricane, cat 5 no less, has not left behind a "cool wake". Is the oceanic heat content just so insane this year, and crazy warm SSTs just so deep, that even a cat 5 couldn't make a dent?

[AdamFirst]

Been watching this storm defy forecast after forecast since its inception. The storm looks relatively healthy even over land and should be in the process of emerging over water within 2-4 hours. I've been thinking a landfall near the Port Aransas area but I would not be surprised at all if it manages to go further east. Even right now its current location is on the far right of the cone.

Everyone in coastal Texas from Beaumont to Brownsville should stay vigilant for this one...heck, do I dare even mention Lake Charles too?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[aspen]

This doesn't look like it is losing organization. Weakening, yes (its over land). It is also not going to be over land as long as was originally forecast. This could really get going once it gets into the gulf
FYI...Atlantic ACE is 32.1 which is the avg for August 29th

Yeah it’s holding together pretty well for now. Could be yet another instance where the models vastly under-estimate its strength.

Has Beryl surpassed Emily’s ACE yet?

[HoustonFrog]

I disagree with this. There is an influx of mets backtracking and saying the same thing. This goes back to what I was saying earlier. We have a storm forecasted to move north along a vertically aligned coast. With a storm moving north, parallel to the Texas coast, there will be a greater distance in coastline from one edge of the cone to the other in comparison to the distance of coastline in the edges of a cone heading toward Louisiana/Alabama for example.

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

Not all pro mets in Houston are of this opinion. Matt is conservative when it comes to weather, and that is great. He did readily admit that he whiffed on the derecho (the intensity, that is, lol). Blake Matthews, Pete Calvin and Travis Herzog have been worried about this for a little while.

I read SCW almost daily, but sometimes they definitely get bit by their "no hype" tagline. There have been a lot of "we missed it" posts in 2024 so far. I think their preference to err on the side of no hype meter needs to slightly adjust the other way. It's annoying to hear about a storm that doesn't happen but better than the unexpected.

[kevin]

This doesn't look like it is losing organization. Weakening, yes (its over land). It is also not going to be over land as long as was originally forecast. This could really get going once it gets into the gulf
FYI...Atlantic ACE is 32.1 which is the avg for August 29th

Yeah it’s holding together pretty well for now. Could be yet another instance where the models vastly under-estimate its strength.

Has Beryl surpassed Emily’s ACE yet?

Emily had 32.9, Beryl has 31.2 so far using BT data. So not yet, but it will surpass Emily soon.

[Kazmit]

Todd Crawford
@tcrawf_nh
I'm struggling to believe that these SST anomalies are real...been doing this a long time and can't remember ever seeing a case where a major hurricane, cat 5 no less, has not left behind a "cool wake". Is the oceanic heat content just so insane this year, and crazy warm SSTs just so deep, that even a cat 5 couldn't make a dent?

I'm guessing it's because Beryl was fast moving and very compact.

[Tireman4]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

This is a pretty irresponsible statement by a well-respected met. Beryl could easily parallel the TX coastline, strengthening along the way to the Houston area. What he says isn’t even fully true. Houston is in the cone because the center of the storm could hit there from the Gulf. Yes, the center of the cone would make his statement true, but Beryl has proven it doesn’t want to travel to the center.

And now folks are yelling at him...



Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.
Quote
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.

[Blinhart]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

Even Pro-mets need to have disclaimers when it comes to Tropical Systems, this is really not good if he is completely wrong.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1809252472650936513

[AerospaceEng]

I disagree with this. There is an influx of mets backtracking and saying the same thing. This goes back to what I was saying earlier. We have a storm forecasted to move north along a vertically aligned coast. With a storm moving north, parallel to the Texas coast, there will be a greater distance in coastline from one edge of the cone to the other in comparison to the distance of coastline in the edges of a cone heading toward Louisiana/Alabama for example.

Not all pro mets in Houston are of this opinion. Matt is conservative when it comes to weather, and that is great. He did readily admit that he whiffed on the derecho (the intensity, that is, lol). Blake Matthews, Pete Calvin and Travis Herzog have been worried about this for a little while.

I read SCW almost daily, but sometimes they definitely get bit by their "no hype" tagline. There have been a lot of "we missed it" posts in 2024 so far. I think their preference to err on the side of no hype meter needs to slightly adjust the other way. It's annoying to hear about a storm that doesn't happen but better than the unexpected.

Seriously. Their coverage of this storm has been very very conservative.

He is literally doubling down on X that the current cone says nothing about the possibility of a Houston area landfall. I assume he understands how the cone works, but wow.

The worst is the derision they have had for anyone who dares to question them.

Lost a lot of respect for Berger, Lanza, and SCW with this storm. Even if it does come in to Corpus or south of there.

[ROCK]

I'm thinking the Houston Mets will eventually start to come around and start issuing some more serious warnings. I'm thinking a Galveston area landfall is a possibility. I don't think it'll be south of Corpus but more up on the coast, possibly into the Galveston Island area. It'll be interesting to see what she does once she is fully over the water. Like others have said, she may outperform the current predictions. If we base forecasts on her historical actions, then I would say it's a safe presumption since she has defied all odds and has outperformed all predictions so far. I would not be surprised if TS/Hurricane watches start to get issued for the counties in the Houston metro.

I don't expect a Galveston landfall, but Corpus to Matagorda is most certainly in play. IMO, CAT 2 to CAT 3 landfall intensity is certainly a possibility depending on track.

What is Jeff's latest? I am to old to do the whole X thing. Back in the beginning, we didnt have much but Storm 2K. Like 19 years ago. lol

[WaveBreaking]

Upper-level low W of Beryl is weaker than it was yesterday and is backing off to the west. The outflow channel it’s creating for Beryl might help/be helping Beryl to withstand land interaction a little bit better.

[Stormgodess]

Is there still a chance that Beryl could come more towards Louisiana? I have PTSD from past storms, so I just want to know what's to come.

I understand completely, right there with you.

I think our biggest concern in Louisiana is rain. But If you are in the Lake Charles area I would still keep a very close eye on what's happening.

[Tireman4]

From the HGX NWS


NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
Here's the latest on Beryl. At this time, the main impacts for SE TX will remain increased rainfall (Mon/Tues) and the potential for tropical storm force winds (34kts) as early as Sun morning. Stay tuned and stay informed.
Quote
National Weather Service
@NWS
·
1h
10am CDT #Beryl update: There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely
Show more

[UTSARoadrunner4]

IF…Beryl were to make landfall between Baffin Bay & Corpus, that would absolutely suck for Corpus Christi. I can’t imagine getting hit by onshore flow for the complete duration of a landfall.

[Blinhart]

Is there still a chance that Beryl could come more towards Louisiana? I have PTSD from past storms, so I just want to know what's to come.

I understand completely, right there with you.

I think our biggest concern in Louisiana is rain. But If you are in the Lake Charles area I would still keep a very close eye on what's happening.

Hey it would help with the demolition of the Capital One Building that is scheduled to be imploded in September, but all joking aside this system is still looking good while being over land for so long. Actually looks like it is getting a good in flow from the GoM already, so it is all ready to go once she makes a splash down, I see no reason for this not to do some RI once she gets 100 miles off shore.

[AerospaceEng]

Wow, lifting almost NW fast on last few radar and visible frames. I think Beryl will hit the water East of NHC estimate.

Beryl is always on the right side of the cone! This storm HATES the left side.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/spann/status/1809263897037222406

[ROCK]

No one has mentioned center relos once off the coast. Those play havoc with systems coming off of land disruption. Something to watch for that models never have a handle on....JMO