ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Wow, lifting almost NW fast on last few radar and visible frames. I think Beryl will hit the water East of NHC estimate.

Beryl is always on the right side of the cone! This storm HATES the left side.

So she is a Republican not a Democrat, so that is even more interesting. LOL, during serious situations you need to have a little laughter every now and then. Sorry for the little bit of joking.

[HoustonFrog]

Not all pro mets in Houston are of this opinion. Matt is conservative when it comes to weather, and that is great. He did readily admit that he whiffed on the derecho (the intensity, that is, lol). Blake Matthews, Pete Calvin and Travis Herzog have been worried about this for a little while.

I read SCW almost daily, but sometimes they definitely get bit by their "no hype" tagline. There have been a lot of "we missed it" posts in 2024 so far. I think their preference to err on the side of no hype meter needs to slightly adjust the other way. It's annoying to hear about a storm that doesn't happen but better than the unexpected.

Seriously. Their coverage of this storm has been very very conservative.

He is literally doubling down on X that the current cone says nothing about Houston area landfall. I assume he understands how the cone works, but wow.

The worst is the derision they have had for anyone who dares to question them.

Lost a lot of respect for Berger, Lanza, and SCW with this storm. Even if it does come in to Corpus or south of there.

This was their post barely over 24 hours ago:

"In terms of track, the most likely landfall position remains somewhere within 50 or 100 miles south of the Texas-Mexico border. However, because this landfall remains about four days into the future, uncertainty remains. It is possible the storm could track more northward, and make landfall along South Padre Island or a bit further up the Texas coast; or further south, in Mexico near Tampico. Regardless, for Houston, the primary impacts are likely to be increased rain chances. "


"increased rain chances" sounds like a normal day in the life of weather. Hah.

About 48 hours ago:
"gives me further confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely not be much of a factor in Houston’s weather next week."


They have really doubled down on this storm being nothing other than a normal day in Houston. And ML needs to get off X for a variety of reasons.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This doesn't look like it is losing organization. Weakening, yes (its over land). It is also not going to be over land as long as was originally forecast. This could really get going once it gets into the gulf
FYI...Atlantic ACE is 32.1 which is the avg for August 29th

Yeah it’s holding together pretty well for now. Could be yet another instance where the models vastly under-estimate its strength.

Has Beryl surpassed Emily’s ACE yet?

Emily had 32.9, Beryl has 31.2 so far using BT data. So not yet, but it will surpass Emily soon.

Chris had .2, Alberto .8. and Beryl is at 31.1
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic

[Pipelines182]

No one has mentioned center relos once off the coast. Those play havoc with systems coming off of land disruption. Something to watch for that models never have a handle on....JMO

Unlikely to happen here. You often get center relocations after crossing land because the topography can decouple systems, but that's only when there's topography worth mentioning. This part of Yucatan is a pancake, like Florida. Sometimes you'll even see weaker storms strengthening over these types of land areas.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi's new video



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=paTsj2nyGKI

[cycloneye]

This is NHC foecaster Blake spreading the preparations message.

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1809241225645510682

[cheezyWXguy]

Hard to be sure, but it looks to me like Beryl’s center has reached 21N already. If so, it may come offshore a little west of 89W, which would still be a little east of the forecast track.

[Tireman4]

I read SCW almost daily, but sometimes they definitely get bit by their "no hype" tagline. There have been a lot of "we missed it" posts in 2024 so far. I think their preference to err on the side of no hype meter needs to slightly adjust the other way. It's annoying to hear about a storm that doesn't happen but better than the unexpected.

Seriously. Their coverage of this storm has been very very conservative.

He is literally doubling down on X that the current cone says nothing about Houston area landfall. I assume he understands how the cone works, but wow.

The worst is the derision they have had for anyone who dares to question them.

Lost a lot of respect for Berger, Lanza, and SCW with this storm. Even if it does come in to Corpus or south of there.

This was their post barely over 24 hours ago:

"In terms of track, the most likely landfall position remains somewhere within 50 or 100 miles south of the Texas-Mexico border. However, because this landfall remains about four days into the future, uncertainty remains. It is possible the storm could track more northward, and make landfall along South Padre Island or a bit further up the Texas coast; or further south, in Mexico near Tampico. Regardless, for Houston, the primary impacts are likely to be increased rain chances. "


"increased rain chances" sounds like a normal day in the life of weather. Hah.

About 48 hours ago:
"gives me further confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely not be much of a factor in Houston’s weather next week."


They have really doubled down on this storm being nothing other than a normal day in Houston. And ML needs to get off X for a variety of reasons.

And folks are giving him grief over it. Not me, mind you.


A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.

Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.



As noted in my post: You prep however you feel comfortable doing in Houston. At this time we do not expect major hurricane impacts here. Rain and localized flash flooding.

[MGC]

Upper-level low W of Beryl is weaker than it was yesterday and is backing off to the west. The outflow channel it’s creating for Beryl might help/be helping Beryl to withstand land interaction a little bit better.
https://imgur.com/ozWpHM1.jpg

That ULL might provide an outflow channel for Beryl in the W Gulf. Beryl will be moving with the flow so there will be little relative shear over the cyclone.......MGC

[MississippiWx]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

This is a pretty irresponsible statement by a well-respected met. Beryl could easily parallel the TX coastline, strengthening along the way to the Houston area. What he says isn’t even fully true. Houston is in the cone because the center of the storm could hit there from the Gulf. Yes, the center of the cone would make his statement true, but Beryl has proven it doesn’t want to travel to the center.

And now folks are yelling at him...



Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.
Quote
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.

He clearly doesn’t understand how the cone works. The center can be anywhere within the cone of uncertainty. Houston is not in the cone BECAUSE the center went west of them. Houston is in the cone because the center could come through there from off the Gulf. His comments should be aimed at urging preparation, NOT worrying about how he is backtracking on his downplaying Beryl affecting Houston the whole time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks like more NW than WNW. The center might be trying to jump to the coast. Systems are known to do this in this location

[tolakram]

This is a pretty irresponsible statement by a well-respected met. Beryl could easily parallel the TX coastline, strengthening along the way to the Houston area. What he says isn’t even fully true. Houston is in the cone because the center of the storm could hit there from the Gulf. Yes, the center of the cone would make his statement true, but Beryl has proven it doesn’t want to travel to the center.

And now folks are yelling at him...



Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.
Quote
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.

He clearly doesn’t understand how the cone works. The center can be anywhere within the cone of uncertainty. Houston is not in the cone BECAUSE the center went west of them. Houston is in the cone because the center could come through there from off the Gulf. His comments should be aimed at urging preparation, NOT worrying about how he is backtracking on his downplaying Beryl affecting Houston the whole time.

The cone is a circle around each forecast point. He is technically correct, as of the last forecast Houston is in the cone due to the error circle around an inland point.

I would have not mentioned it as I think it minimizes the actual risk in this case.

[HurricaneBrain]

Is radar down for anyone else?

[ROCK]

Hard to be sure, but it looks to me like Beryl’s center has reached 21N already. If so, it may come offshore a little west of 89W, which would still be a little east of the forecast track.

glad someone else noticed that....seems right again and will transverse less land which means more water on the other side.

[MississippiWx]

And now folks are yelling at him...



Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.
Quote
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.

He clearly doesn’t understand how the cone works. The center can be anywhere within the cone of uncertainty. Houston is not in the cone BECAUSE the center went west of them. Houston is in the cone because the center could come through there from off the Gulf. His comments should be aimed at urging preparation, NOT worrying about how he is backtracking on his downplaying Beryl affecting Houston the whole time.

The cone is a circle around each forecast point. He is technically correct, as of the last forecast Houston is in the cone due to the error circle around an inland point.

I would have not mentioned it as I think it minimizes the actual risk in this case.

Yes, but he’s not accounting for the rest of the cone. He’s accounting for the center line only. Anyway, I don’t mean to chastise him too much as I do think he’s a good meteorologist.

[ROCK]

This looks like more NW than WNW. The center might be trying to jump to the coast. Systems are known to do this in this location
https://i.imgur.com/K7OOuMI.gif

almost like a center relo...lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hard to be sure, but it looks to me like Beryl’s center has reached 21N already. If so, it may come offshore a little west of 89W, which would still be a little east of the forecast track.

glad someone else noticed that....seems right again and will transverse less land which means more water on the other side.

Looks to me like it's trying to relocate the center closer to the coast...and that would be problematic for predicting landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Does appear to be staying on the northern side of the forecast.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3

[Tireman4]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

Same spot as Carla.