ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Looks like the system has lost some punch during its trip over land during the past 3 hours or so.

[ROCK]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

He must get the runs a tad faster than TT does...its only our 48hrs...I agree..this good shape up to be something more than we all expected.

[3090]

Looks like the system has lost some punch during its trip over land during the past 3 hours or so.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L0DR6kj/1.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Xj7BHCp/GANIM1-ADKKd40.jpg [/url]

Yep it was expected.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still seems to be maintaining decent core structure on Cancun radar:

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[catskillfire51]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

He must get the runs a tad faster than TT does...its only our 48hrs...I agree..this good shape up to be something more than we all expected.

That's the 6z run

[cycloneye]

Cancun radar at 1:01 PM.

[Stormgodess]

Anyone have a link to a good Gulf Surface Water temp map?

[Pipelines182]

Looks like the system has lost some punch during its trip over land during the past 3 hours or so.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L0DR6kj/1.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Xj7BHCp/GANIM1-ADKKd40.jpg [/url]

Massive collapse of the CDO just over the last hour, core might have gotten disrupted

[LadyBug72]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

Same spot as Carla.

Isn’t that the 6z run though?

[HurricaneBrain]

I still disagree. It’s a great debate and I can understand your side of it. The cone of uncertainty doesn’t have a different definition for inland and for coastal points. The only part where I can see the definition changing is if the storm is making a loop. Take land out of the equation. If this cone was over open water we’d be saying the center could travel anywhere from the far left to the far right of the cone. The cone is where the center could travel not the remnants. By your definition are you saying the center could travel inland then back over the water on the SWLA coast? That seems much LESS likely than an outright SWLA landfall.

And now folks are yelling at him...



Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
A lot of y’all calling me irresponsible (!?) for this. Literally, Houston is in the cone for a storm that is inland at this point. As I noted the most likely landfall risk *right now* is Matagorda to the RGV.
Quote
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
1h
For folks concerned that Houston is in the cone. Keep in mind that this is because of Beryl’s remnants, not because the storm will make landfall near here. Landfall risk right now is between Matagorda Bay and the RGV.

He clearly doesn’t understand how the cone works. The center can be anywhere within the cone of uncertainty. Houston is not in the cone BECAUSE the center went west of them. Houston is in the cone because the center could come through there from off the Gulf. His comments should be aimed at urging preparation, NOT worrying about how he is backtracking on his downplaying Beryl affecting Houston the whole time.

The cone is a circle around each forecast point. He is technically correct, as of the last forecast Houston is in the cone due to the error circle around an inland point.

I would have not mentioned it as I think it minimizes the actual risk in this case.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
NOT A FORECAST: But the HWRF model shows a major Hurricane Beryl at landfall near Port Lavaca, Texas Monday morning. While this is not a forecast, it does show a possible bad scenario for an intensifying Hurricane Beryl with farther right track. This would be a mega disaster for Texas. Now is the time to prepare.

Same spot as Carla.

Isn’t that the 6z run though?

It is. 12Z HWRF currently in progress

[Stormlover70]

I will go out on a limb and say tx LA border Sabine pass. Due to the right bias.

[Frank P]

A little more detailed image of the center of Beryl and looks to me she still has a little go before entering into the GOM but getting close, eye structure look like it is weathering the land crossing thus far.. my opinion

[ColdFusion]

I will go out on a limb and say tx LA border Sabine pass. Due to the right bias.

Woo boy, that's stretching it for sure. But it is within the 5% probably part of the official NHC cone, so won't say impossible.

[ROCK]

I will go out on a limb and say tx LA border Sabine pass. Due to the right bias.

Woo boy, that's stretching it for sure. But it is within the 5% probably part of the official NHC cone, so won't say impossible.

not going to discount anything at this point as I have watched Rita slide on by 72hrs out....Watch Humberto slide right by even closer than that.

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1809279670049034666




JB says the ICON has been perfoming well. Thinks landfall between Corpus and Galveston is most likely in his eyes.

[Teban54]

Yet another reminder: Historically, the storm has a one-in-three chance of falling outside the cone.

[Frank P]

I will go out on a limb and say tx LA border Sabine pass. Due to the right bias.

Woo boy, that's stretching it for sure. But it is within the 5% probably part of the official NHC cone, so won't say impossible.

not going to discount anything at this point as I have watched Rita slide on by 72hrs out....Watch Humberto slide right by even closer than that.

Hard to beat the Katrina shift west with 3 days out, was pinpointing the FL panhandle and we all know how that panned out.. I remember getting a message from wxmn57 on that Friday before the storm telling me he was pretty sure that it was not going into the FL Panhandle but towards the MS and NOLA areas... I think his mother lived in Pascagoula at the time... remember it like yesterday..

[ROCK]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1809279670049034666




JB says the ICON has been perfoming well. Thinks landfall between Corpus and Galveston is most likely in his eyes.

lol ICON....who knew!!

[typhoonty]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402




Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

This is a pretty irresponsible statement by a well-respected met. Beryl could easily parallel the TX coastline, strengthening along the way to the Houston area. What he says isn’t even fully true. Houston is in the cone because the center of the storm could hit there from the Gulf. Yes, the center of the cone would make his statement true, but Beryl has proven it doesn’t want to travel to the center.

This is really just tempting fate by Matt to have it come close to Houston. Even the most generous interpretation of his words is incorrect. I can still draw a line over water from the eastern end of the 3 day cone circle to Houston. And, given that models are constantly making small eastward adjustments as current trends further dictate them, the NHC will follow.

But this goes back to the earlier point I made about the cone being

1) The most important thing to the public, by far.
2) Next to impossible to consistently message enterprise wide as it's currently constructed. Matt is a respected pro met, but a lot of pro mets I know disagree with his intepretation of the cone in the message he was conveying, which was that it is extremely unlikely the storm will make landfall near Houston. If weather had a betting market, I would say the chance of a Houston CSA landfall is the same or greater than the odds of a mexican final landfall.

Time will tell, for his sake, and the metro, I hope he's right.