ATL: BERYL - Models

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#961 Postby HoustonFrog » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:55 am

GFS weaker but same spot at Corpus/Port A area.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#962 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:56 am

I see the NHC moved the cone right some last adv...I expect to see more rightward shifts to occur as we progress during the day with more model runs...JMO..
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#963 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:18 am

UKMET farther north. Playing catch up.

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 87.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2024 0 20.5N 87.4W 974 58
0000UTC 06.07.2024 12 21.2N 90.0W 992 47
1200UTC 06.07.2024 24 22.5N 92.1W 988 50
0000UTC 07.07.2024 36 23.8N 93.8W 986 50
1200UTC 07.07.2024 48 24.6N 95.3W 985 48
0000UTC 08.07.2024 60 25.6N 96.3W 988 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 72 26.6N 97.0W 991 48
0000UTC 09.07.2024 84 28.1N 97.3W 997 38
1200UTC 09.07.2024 96 30.1N 96.8W 998 33
0000UTC 10.07.2024 108 31.7N 95.5W 999 28
1200UTC 10.07.2024 120 33.9N 94.2W 999 24
0000UTC 11.07.2024 132 35.2N 92.4W 1000 18
1200UTC 11.07.2024 144 38.6N 90.3W 1001 21
0000UTC 12.07.2024 156 38.9N 89.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.07.2024 168 39.7N 87.9W 1007 28
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#964 Postby hurricane2025 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:21 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:UKMET farther north. Playing catch up.

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 87.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024



@cold do u think we see some north shift ?

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2024 0 20.5N 87.4W 974 58
0000UTC 06.07.2024 12 21.2N 90.0W 992 47
1200UTC 06.07.2024 24 22.5N 92.1W 988 50
0000UTC 07.07.2024 36 23.8N 93.8W 986 50
1200UTC 07.07.2024 48 24.6N 95.3W 985 48
0000UTC 08.07.2024 60 25.6N 96.3W 988 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 72 26.6N 97.0W 991 48
0000UTC 09.07.2024 84 28.1N 97.3W 997 38
1200UTC 09.07.2024 96 30.1N 96.8W 998 33
0000UTC 10.07.2024 108 31.7N 95.5W 999 28
1200UTC 10.07.2024 120 33.9N 94.2W 999 24
0000UTC 11.07.2024 132 35.2N 92.4W 1000 18
1200UTC 11.07.2024 144 38.6N 90.3W 1001 21
0000UTC 12.07.2024 156 38.9N 89.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.07.2024 168 39.7N 87.9W 1007 28
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#965 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:22 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:UKMET farther north. Playing catch up.

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 87.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2024 0 20.5N 87.4W 974 58
0000UTC 06.07.2024 12 21.2N 90.0W 992 47
1200UTC 06.07.2024 24 22.5N 92.1W 988 50
0000UTC 07.07.2024 36 23.8N 93.8W 986 50
1200UTC 07.07.2024 48 24.6N 95.3W 985 48
0000UTC 08.07.2024 60 25.6N 96.3W 988 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 72 26.6N 97.0W 991 48
0000UTC 09.07.2024 84 28.1N 97.3W 997 38
1200UTC 09.07.2024 96 30.1N 96.8W 998 33
0000UTC 10.07.2024 108 31.7N 95.5W 999 28
1200UTC 10.07.2024 120 33.9N 94.2W 999 24
0000UTC 11.07.2024 132 35.2N 92.4W 1000 18
1200UTC 11.07.2024 144 38.6N 90.3W 1001 21
0000UTC 12.07.2024 156 38.9N 89.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.07.2024 168 39.7N 87.9W 1007 28


So, 12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#966 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:28 am

catch up is right...its been stuck in MX for days.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#967 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:34 am

12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi. The 0Z run was in NE MX. But this isn’t at all surprising considering clearcut N trends.

12Z CMC at MX/TX border, which is ~100 miles N of 0Z run. It is still the furthest S landfall by far compared to the ICON, GFS, and UKMET.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#968 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:35 am

hurricane2025 wrote:@cold do u think we see some north shift ?


Gave Corpus Christi as the current most likely landfall point in my brief to energy traders today.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#969 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:35 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi. The 0Z run was in NE MX. But this isn’t at all surprising considering clearcut N trends.

12Z CMC at MX/TX border, which is ~100 miles N of 0Z run. It is still the furthest S landfall by far compared to the ICON, GFS, and UKMET.



yeah that CMC run was toast right out of the gate earlier. Had like 1001MB initialization and way to far south. It was doomed from the get go.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#970 Postby Blinhart » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:37 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
hurricane2025 wrote:@cold do u think we see some north shift ?


Gave Corpus Christi as the current most likely landfall point in my brief to energy traders today.


Hope you are correct.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#971 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:59 am

HMON coming in ....out 33hrs.993MB....Looks to keep it weak...at 63Hr at 975MB...972mb about the same spot as the 06Z..
Last edited by ROCK on Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#972 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:20 pm

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1809271350793761074


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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#973 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:22 pm

Euro is well north of 0z/6z. It is north of 6z by about a degree latitude 27 hours out.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#974 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:23 pm




exactly what i was thinking as well as that Cheesewx poster..
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#975 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:27 pm

The hrwf model looks slightly more west this run… these models are making me have vertigo… lol
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#976 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:29 pm

Euro makes landfall halfway between Corpus & Galveston as a significant hurricane. Huge shift northeast.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#977 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:30 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Euro is well north of 0z/6z. It is north of 6z by about a degree latitude 27 hours out.


Yeah, the 12Z Euro is looking to most likely come in well up the TX coast per early maps. We’ll see.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#978 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:30 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Euro makes landfall halfway between Corpus & Galveston as a significant hurricane. Huge shift northeast.



Have the graphic?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#979 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Euro makes landfall halfway between Corpus & Galveston as a significant hurricane. Huge shift northeast.



Have the graphic?


Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#980 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:34 pm

thru H57 HWRF is 9 mb higher than prior run (12z is 977mb) and a tad west and slower
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