ATL: BERYL - Models

[Wampadawg]

Euro makes landfall halfway between Corpus & Galveston as a significant hurricane. Huge shift northeast.

Have the graphic?

https://i.imgur.com/XBEnCgm.png

Roo Roo

[AdamFirst]

Both HAFS models attempted a center relocation on the 12z suite. Junk runs

[tolakram]

This was the 6Z euro

[South Texas Storms]

Houston threat appears to be quickly increasing, just like I feared. These systems almost always trend right when being picked up by a trough. Seen it so many times so not surprised at all.

[jaguars_22]

Could the latest hrwf verify? Slower and further west? Do you think the Victoria area is safe if it moves more east?

[Stratton23]

HWRF comes in around corpus as a major, no victoria would not be safe, especially once it moves in land it might be able to maintain hurricane strength just for a little bit

[HurricaneBrain]

Big shift by the Euro……. Uh oh.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

12Z HWRF shows Corpus Christi landfall. Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, and Rockport gets the dirty side pretty bad on this run.

[LarryWx]

Just for the record, both the 12Z June 30th ICON and JMA had a landfall at Galveston! And many later runs of both have been similar. Are those two going to score a huge win?

[LAF92]

Just for the record, both the 12Z June 30th ICON and JMA had a landfall at Galveston! And many later runs of both have been similar. Are those two going to score a huge win?

ICON was either going to be a hero or a zero it’s looking like it might be the hero. It’s stuck to its guns for a few days

[jaguars_22]

Did the nhc cone just shift south with the exact center? As of 1pm

[Shoshana]

Even though Beryl isn’t even in the Gulf yet, I am starting to see some ( not NOAA not NWS not local meteorologists) Facebook posts with some Asylum level headlines, like Mega Disaster heading towards Texas

All that does is scare people, yes Beryl is looks right now like a Texas storm but …

[HurricaneBrain]

Cones don’t shift at 1PM.

Did the nhc cone just shift south with the exact center? As of 1pm

[LadyBug72]

Did the nhc cone just shift south with the exact center? As of 1pm

The next cone update won’t be out until 4.

[hurricane2025]

And that cone will shift north!!!

[lolitx]

Even though Beryl isn’t even in the Gulf yet, I am starting to see some ( not NOAA not NWS not local meteorologists) Facebook posts with some Asylum level headlines, like Mega Disaster heading towards Texas

All that does is scare people, yes Beryl is looks right now like a Texas storm but …

I know. A certain storm chaser in particular. Its working on me.. but I have to keep telling myself he likes to hype ..even tho this time he could be right.

[Steve]

Even though Beryl isn’t even in the Gulf yet, I am starting to see some ( not NOAA not NWS not local meteorologists) Facebook posts with some Asylum level headlines, like Mega Disaster heading towards Texas

All that does is scare people, yes Beryl is looks right now like a Texas storm but …

Sometimes it's over the top comedy though. There's a pseudo-fake site called CNN News 18 (and others) that every time they're showing a graphic buses are flying around and people are backflipping upside down in the air as they are cut and pasted onto the graphic. The internet can be a true cesspool. I saw a guru once mention never before have we had so much information at our fingertips - or so much misinformation.

[Steve]

Here's a link to the EC Fast. 966 so probably strong 2 range and a landfall +/- Matagorda Bay, TX

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=72

[ROCK]

Just looked at that 12Z FV3 Mesoscale model run Steve you alluded to...might be on to something as it handles the trof better which would turn B. Though currently with it coming off sooner into the GOM at a higher lat this might move models even further right. Just seems like all models (except ICON) are playing catch up right now.

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro with a 966 mb hurricane into the east end of Matagorda Bay. Landfall at 7 AM central time on Monday so still roughly 72 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift further east.