ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2821 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:43 pm

Visible satellite trends suggest Beryl should exit the coast near 89W, nearly a full degree east of where the 10am cdt forecast depicted
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2822 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:46 pm

Kind of getting a bit worried about our fellow S2K user skyline, as iirc he/she lives in that area of Texas
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2823 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:46 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:IF…Beryl heads toward Houston/Galveston instead of Corpus or mid-Texas coast, how much more time would it have in the Gulf?


It would have more time over the gulf in that scenario so maybe late Monday morning like 9 or 10 am? Not sure tbh.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2824 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:51 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
GCANE wrote:WOW, big 7500 CAPE Ridge in the NW GoM.
Its north of the ULL's CoC.
Beryl needs to stay well away from that once it gets in the vicinity.

I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?


Would be like throwing gasoline on a fire.
If minimal shear, would allow Beryl to rapidly strengthen.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2825 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:51 pm

AerospaceEng wrote:Wow, she looks primed to go when she hits the water.

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2826 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:53 pm

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809292848241512702




Dr. Levi Cowan reccomends everyone along the TX Gulf Coast to prepare for a hurricane strike. Still some uncertainty so it is better to be safe than sorry especially with all these north shifts today.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2827 Postby Craters » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:54 pm

USTropics wrote:Taking a step back to look at the bigger picture here, we have our aforementioned ULL backing to the west towards Mexico. This will impart southwesterly flow at the upper-levels (orange), meanwhile Beryl is moving WNW with the low-level flow (pink). We can already see this occurring with the outflowing banding pattern to the north of Beryl:
https://i.imgur.com/JgMRppO.png ]

{Snipped a bunch of great information and graphics to save space.]
Excellent post, USTropics. A question, if I may: Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming that you mean the banding in the outflow that's perpendicular to the wind from the ULL, there. If that's correct, would you know the mechanism that causes that kind of perpendicular structure? My simplistic way of thinking would make the cirrus string out parallel to the prevailing wind that's affecting them.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2828 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:55 pm

IcyTundra wrote: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809292848241512702




Dr. Levi Cowan reccomends everyone along the TX Gulf Coast to prepare for a hurricane strike. Still some uncertainty so it is better to be safe than sorry especially with all these north shifts today.



He is seeing what we are seeing so good to get word out. Expect another shift right of cone at 4pm...then another tonight as 18Z and 0Z model runs flush out this right jog...JMO
Last edited by ROCK on Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2829 Postby Bimms » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:56 pm

aspen wrote:
AerospaceEng wrote:Wow, she looks primed to go when she hits the water.

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.

I don't think so. If we have learned anything, Beryl drinks shear like coffee, and dry air is just some creamer for her coffee. On a serious note, if we have not learned anything so far, it's that the normal barriers or unfavorable environments mean nothing to this storm. Now, when do we think that TS/ Hurricane watches will start to go up for SE Texas, a few days away and the local Mets still seem to be downplaying it.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2830 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:59 pm

Stormgodess wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Nederlander wrote:The center is now approaching the coast, and well east of Merida/Progreso.


Just incredible how it keeps moving more to the north. Believe the upper low to the west is having a larger influence on steering than models can pick up.


What were the steering systems or data, that the models were taking into account to continue with that westward track for so long? When the only time Beryl moved in a more westward direction was when it occasionally wobbled that way? :(


There are probably more intricate details, but I believe it mostly comes down to strength. None of the models predicted Beryl to restrengthen into a major hurricane yesterday evening. In fact, many of them had it as a minimal Cat 1 or TS. A stronger storm kept feeling the influence of upper level steering with the upper low to the west nudging it north of any predicted tracks. It’s the same story today.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2831 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:59 pm

IcyTundra wrote: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809292848241512702




Dr. Levi Cowan reccomends everyone along the TX Gulf Coast to prepare for a hurricane strike. Still some uncertainty so it is better to be safe than sorry especially with all these north shifts today.


Looks like the Fujiwhara effect is in full swing with the ULL and Beryl
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2832 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:02 pm

Bimms wrote:
aspen wrote:
AerospaceEng wrote:Wow, she looks primed to go when she hits the water.

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.

I don't think so. If we have learned anything, Beryl drinks shear like coffee, and dry air is just some creamer for her coffee. On a serious note, if we have not learned anything so far, it's that the normal barriers or unfavorable environments mean nothing to this storm. Now, when do we think that TS/ Hurricane watches will start to go up for SE Texas, a few days away and the local Mets still seem to be downplaying it.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing watches go up for the south & mid-Texas coast by this 4 PM advisory. SE Texas probably wouldn’t be until the 10 PM Advisory.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2833 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:05 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
Steve wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I’m confused, would that help or hurt Beryl?


7500 CAPE is nearly unheard of. That's about as much juicy energy as there could be.

Gotcha. Has there ever been a case where there was too much CAPE for a system to handle? Like an overindulgence kind of thing? Because the higher CAPE values I’m used to seeing is in the 3500-4000 range.


GCANE is the master of that stuff. I wouldn't think so though. The more potential energy that is there, the more a system can use. If I'm wrong, I'm sure he'll be around to correct it (but I don't think so).
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ATL: BERYL - Models

#2834 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:07 pm

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2835 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:07 pm

aspen wrote:
AerospaceEng wrote:Wow, she looks primed to go when she hits the water.

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.


Good point, it's not looking great right now - which is obvious with the downgrade to TS. Let's see how much is left once we get back in the water.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2836 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:08 pm

GCANE wrote:
IcyTundra wrote: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809292848241512702




Dr. Levi Cowan reccomends everyone along the TX Gulf Coast to prepare for a hurricane strike. Still some uncertainty so it is better to be safe than sorry especially with all these north shifts today.


Looks like the Fujiwhara effect is in full swing with the ULL and Beryl


Yes you mentioned this yesterday but I couldn't remember who said it. Sort of a sling shot effect...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2837 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:09 pm

I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast :) . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#2838 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:11 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.


To let you know that moved your post from the models thread to here.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2839 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast :) . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.


He wasn't happy with me when I told him this was likely coming further up the coast. Called me a fear mongerer :lol:

I wish I was wrong but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case now...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2840 Postby hipshot » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast :) . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.

I think he lives in Houston so I'm sure he has more than just a professional interest in Beryl.
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