ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

I thought she was supposed to slow down on approach to the coast. Not to a creep though, just want to make that clear.

[zzzh]

CAPE is the energy from the atmosphere, very useful stuff when you are chasing severe weather. But we are tracking hurricanes here, the primary source of energy is the ocean heat, atmospheric energy is little compared to the ocean. Tbh I've never seen any mets on twitter even mentions CAPE when talking about the environment.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

I thought she was supposed to slow down on approach to the coast.

That was if the storm didn't get fully captured by the trough over the Central U.S. It will likely move fairly quickly now since it appears to be getting pick up by it.

[Steve]

CAPE is the energy from the atmosphere, very useful stuff when you are chasing severe weather. But we are tracking hurricanes here, the primary source of energy is the ocean heat, atmospheric energy is little compared to the ocean. Tbh I've never seen any mets on twitter even mentions CAPE when talking about the environment.

This is right zz. But I can't tell you how many times in the last 7 or 8 seasons G posted CAPE and a system approached and got noticeably juiced up. Much of the time that was 3.5k or 4k or whatever. I suppose it has to tap into the stream to use it, so it would be inflow channels I'm guessing. We've seen lightning increase. We've even seen some gravity wave stuff. Maybe it's all peripheral or part of a larger picture. But I've just seen it too many times to ignore it.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.

He wasn't happy with me when I told him this was likely coming further up the coast. Called me a fear mongerer

I wish I was wrong but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case now...

haha too funny. Hope he stays safe. Wish I could meet him someday. He seems like he's a super nice guy.

[3090]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809292848241512702




Dr. Levi Cowan reccomends everyone along the TX Gulf Coast to prepare for a hurricane strike. Still some uncertainty so it is better to be safe than sorry especially with all these north shifts today.

Looks like the Fujiwhara effect is in full swing with the ULL and Beryl

Yes you mentioned this yesterday but I couldn't remember who said it. Sort of a sling shot effect...

I was the one that initially mentioned the words “sling shot” yesterday.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

IIRC Beryl was down to 10 mph or is expected to be in the Gulf. Have I missed something?

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

IIRC Beryl was down to 10 mph or is expected to be in the Gulf. Have I missed something?

That was if the storm didn't get fully captured by the trough over the Central U.S. It will likely move fairly quickly now since it appears to be getting pick up by it.

[ROCK]

I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.

He wasn't happy with me when I told him this was likely coming further up the coast. Called me a fear mongerer

I wish I was wrong but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case now...

haha too funny. Hope he stays safe. Wish I could meet him someday. He seems like he's a super nice guy.

He has lots of clients to update. Met him at a conf and got a photo. Cool guy...

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

I thought she was supposed to slow down on approach to the coast. Not to a creep though, just want to make that clear.

I think the reason they were initially thinking that it would move slow was due to possibly missing the trough and thus land falling somewhere around the texas mexico border or south. Now that they think the trough will pick it up, it should move much faster, thus lessening the rainfall impact and hopefully the time to strengthen as well, depending upon when the core gets re-established.

[Tireman4]

I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.

He wasn't happy with me when I told him this was likely coming further up the coast. Called me a fear mongerer

I wish I was wrong but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case now...

haha too funny. Hope he stays safe. Wish I could meet him someday. He seems like he's a super nice guy.

He has a charm and a wit about him. Very dry sense of humor, that one. LOL. I happen to know both South Texas Storms and Wxman 57.

[MississippiWx]

I don't think rainfall will be the biggest threat with this storm since it should be moving fairly quickly. Most areas that see significant impacts from the core will likely average around 4-8 inches. This part of the country can handle that fairly well. Winds may turn out to be the biggest issue...especially if it continues to overperform.

Depending on angle of approach and strength, storm surge could be rough.

[Steve]

Hey South Texas, I'll ask you the same question I asked C-zone. What do you think the forward speed would be around landfall? Icon shows it to be steady but it doesn't really pick up all that much speed until it gets into the westerlies near the LA/TX/AR/OK borders (Ark-la-tex I think they call that so roughly Texarkana). So landfall roughly 14-15mph?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=84

[South Texas Storms]

Hey South Texas, I'll ask you the same question I asked C-zone. What do you think the forward speed would be around landfall? Icon shows it to be steady but it doesn't really pick up all that much speed until it gets into the westerlies near the LA/TX/AR/OK borders (Ark-la-tex I think they call that so roughly Texarkana). So landfall roughly 14-15mph?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=84

Yeah around 15 mph seems reasonable while it's moving inland. Monday looks like a rough day across southeast TX. Nice to see much quieter conditions return by Tuesday though.

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809307352618922283

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809307352618922283

The last time a storm experienced both the traditional deep tropics RI and the 2020-ish jet stream RI was... Idk, Wilma?

[MississippiWx]

Beryl is already beginning to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
This wasn’t supposed to happen until 7pm CST today. The northerly movement has caused an earlier arrival to water.

[weeniepatrol]

Inner core remains intact.

[Category5Kaiju]

[ROCK]

Beryl is already beginning to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
This wasn’t supposed to happen until 7pm CST today. The northerly movement has caused an earlier arrival to water.

Going to be game on in the next 6hours or so. See if it can get the engine going again.

2 planes heading out soon to take peek...