ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gqhebert]

Any idea where where watches will go up on the TX coast? Im thinking Brownsville to High Island

[aspen]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809307352618922283

Let’s hope the model led dry air entrainment keeps a lid on Beryl in the Gulf. Last thing we need is yet another Gulf coast major landfall.

[underthwx]

I think this will be the first time that WXMAN will have been wrong on both the strength and the destination of a storm..... Usually he nails at least one of them. Maybe he was just hating the idea of working over this weekend and if that's the case, then I don't blame him, I would have probably made the same forecast . Looks like he will get an extended break in the tropics after Beryl though, which is normal for July.

He wasn't happy with me when I told him this was likely coming further up the coast. Called me a fear mongerer

I wish I was wrong but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case now...

It is what it is....its also a holiday weekend....and alot of peeps I have talked to are unaware of the increasing risk of Beryl impacting the area more than previously thought...the NHC has done a heck of a job with Beryl....and so has 2K for sure...I will stay tuned....peace out yall...

[tropicwatch]

Will be interesting to see where NHC puts the center at 4pm. Based on the satellite imagery and what radar presentation we have available you would think somewhere east of Progresso. jmo

[xironman]

Beryl is already beginning to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
This wasn’t supposed to happen until 7pm CST today. The northerly movement has caused an earlier arrival to water.

The 1pm CDT update had is emerging west of Merida, it is going to emerge to the east, much less time over land.

[xironman]

Will be interesting to see where NHC puts the center at 4pm. Based on the satellite imagery and what radar presentation we have available you would think somewhere east of Progresso. jmo

Yeah, ESE

[DestinHurricane]

East of just about every model as well as the NHC track. The more northerly ensemble members have stronger systems in the gulf.

Also, the Euro in the 960s is extremely concerning... it is usually a weak bias model.

[Tireman4]

Collin Myers ( on air met, KTRK 13 Houston)
@collinmyerswx
The trend in the ECMWF for #Beryl is definitely going in a direction we don’t want. Farther up the Texas coast, and intensifying.

Anxiously awaiting NHC’s 4pm now.

The longer in the #Gulf, the greater the chance for intensification.
However, Beryl may struggle initially after passing over the Yucatán.

#txwx #HurricaneBeryl

[Stormgodess]

Collin Myers ( on air met, KTRK 13 Houston)
@collinmyerswx
The trend in the ECMWF for #Beryl is definitely going in a direction we don’t want. Farther up the Texas coast, and intensifying.

Anxiously awaiting NHC’s 4pm now.

The longer in the #Gulf, the greater the chance for intensification.
However, Beryl may struggle initially after passing over the Yucatán.

#txwx #HurricaneBeryl

Looking him up to follow made me realize Beryl isn't even trending on Twitter. Makes me worry that so many people aren't aware that she isn't just a problem for Mexico

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809307352618922283

Let’s hope the model led dry air entrainment keeps a lid on Beryl in the Gulf. Last thing we need is yet another Gulf coast major landfall.

12Z Euro ensemble as well as the operational Euro are quite bullish on intensity unfortunately.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Everyone is freaking out but not a single model shows more than Cat 1. Deep breaths, everyone.

[IcyTundra]

Everyone is freaking out but not a single model shows more than Cat 1. Deep breaths, everyone.

Not true there are models like the Euro, Icon, and some of the hurricane models that show stronger than a cat 1.

[MississippiWx]

Everyone is freaking out but not a single model shows more than Cat 1. Deep breaths, everyone.

This is false. The Euro alone has a 966mb hurricane.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

[Stratton23]

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS that is completely false

[wx98]

New track at 21z will have the landfall point at Port Aransas and Rockport. Edging a little further east but still a long way to Galveston.

[Pipelines182]

Everyone is freaking out but not a single model shows more than Cat 1. Deep breaths, everyone.

This is false. The Euro alone has a 966mb hurricane.

and HWRF, the most accurate intensity model so far for Beryl, has 968 mb.... lol

[weeniepatrol]

[IcyTundra]

New track at 21z will have the landfall point at Port Aransas and Rockport. Edging a little further east but still a long way to Galveston.

If the Euro and Euro ensemble are to be believed it will continue to slowly shift east this weekend. I'm thinking anywhere from Corpus Christi to Bolivar Peninsula right now for landfall.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_intensity_latest.png

This storm has outperformed models quite a few times intensity wise. Excuse us for being a bit worried…