ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

looks like we have water-fall, 30-40 miles east of progreso and around 50 miles east of NHC track.

[zzzh]

[AerospaceEng]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/EmdX5Gp.jpeg

can anyone point out to me where the center of Beryl is in that image... I'm having a hard time trying to figure it out.. thx

[aspen]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/b7R2nCV/IMG-3505.jpg [/url]

This storm just refuses to follow any forecasts or model guidance...so annoying. Wondering at this point if the TX/LA border is a possibility...

The ICON model is probably the closest to reality in terms of track currently. It showed the storm about to emerge in the Gulf at 18z and moving NNW.

For days the ICON has been showing a TX landfall further north than all the other models. Seems like it was on to something.

[DestinHurricane]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

Certainly is not a sheared TS into Belize...

Lake Charles would certainly be surprising but cannot be ruled out at this rate.

[IcyTundra]

4:00 PM NHC update is going to be very interesting. I know they don't like to make big shifts but at this point they are forced to with what the models are showing and how Beryl is further east than expected.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I wouldn't rule out a Cat 4 if everything goes perfect for this storm.

Speaking of Category 4, Beryl was a Category 4 with a minimum pressure of 962 on its way to the Windward Islands.

1. That pressure is higher than usual for a Category 4. What was the reason for that?

2. Could it do that again in the Gulf?

[LadyBug72]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

Wouldn’t that be something?!

Back to Beryl!

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/EmdX5Gp.jpeg

Oof, the inner core from the previous pass is basically gone. It’ll probably have to start from scratch.

[zzzh]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

Certainly is not a sheared TS into Belize...

Lake Charles would certainly be surprising but cannot be ruled out at this rate.

Exactly. Wxman is probably explaining to his clients why a hurricane into Nicaragua suddenly turned to a potential major hurricane in the Gulf rn

[underthwx]

We know land interaction can steer storms somewhat, when it reaches gulf let’s see if it returns to a more wnw motion. I’m more than a little concerned by this northward “ jog”.
The coolest or less boiling waters are on the northern edge of the Yucatán peninsula, after that nothing good.

Yeah....I wondered to myself...after seeing the cone shift significantly NWD...with western Louisiana included now...is a Northward track included in the possible tracks?...with the ridge that steers Beryl?...

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809326482562400710

[sphelps8681]

4:00 PM NHC update is going to be very interesting. I know they don't like to make big shifts but at this point they are forced to with what the models are showing and how Beryl is further east than expected.

I bet they will do a little at a time to save face. Now and then again later. It will be like wow Beryl sure ramped up since our last advisory. But really I don't know.

[Tireman4]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

Certainly is not a sheared TS into Belize...

Lake Charles would certainly be surprising but cannot be ruled out at this rate.

Exactly. Wxman is probably explaining to his clients why a hurricane into Nicaragua suddenly turned to a potential major hurricane in the Gulf rn

That is really not funny, but ok, you win the S2K board for the hour...

[Hurrilurker]

Reaaaally looks like it's moving NNW right now as it comes off Yucatan. I see more E track shifts coming. Looks incredibly healthy on visible.

[3090]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

He said when Beryl first formed he did not THINK this would be a Texas storm nor have any impacts to the GOM. But he did say it was very early and decisions have to be made by clients he serves early on due to the logistical challenges involved (essentially). So he was NOT forecasting definitively. His initial THOUGHTS!

[Stormgodess]

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.

I don't think so. If we have learned anything, Beryl drinks shear like coffee, and dry air is just some creamer for her coffee. On a serious note, if we have not learned anything so far, it's that the normal barriers or unfavorable environments mean nothing to this storm. Now, when do we think that TS/ Hurricane watches will start to go up for SE Texas, a few days away and the local Mets still seem to be downplaying it.

Here is the mid-level WV loop. Doesn't look like it will entrain dry air anytime soon

https://i.imgur.com/T24BAjc.gif

Is it just me or is that NNW movement, at times even due North?

[Pipelines182]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809326482562400710

Levi makes an excellent point, you can't tell from the satellite presentation whether or not the centers are still stacked. Something happened a couple hours ago when the CDO suddenly warmed, it could have been a decoupling of the centers. Just have to wait and see.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809326482562400710

27 is a bit low but definitely supports some development. Wouldn't take too long before it reaches the 29 degree isotherm.