ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

What if WXMan was right and this ISNT a Texas Storm!

He said when Beryl first formed he did not THINK this would be a Texas storm nor have any impacts to the GOM. But he did say it was very early and decisions have to be made by clients he serves early on due to the logistical challenges involved (essentially). So he was NOT forecasting definitively. His initial THOUGHTS!

[cheezyWXguy]

I wouldn't rule out a Cat 4 if everything goes perfect for this storm.

Speaking of Category 4, Beryl was a Category 4 with a minimum pressure of 962 on its way to the Windward Islands.

1. That pressure is higher than usual for a Category 4. What was the reason for that?

2. Could it do that again in the Gulf?

1. Compact size in an environment with high background pressures
2. Probably not. Beryl should be quite a bit larger than it was in the Caribbean, and I believe background pressures are a bit lower. 962 here would probably be a borderline c2/c3. That’s not to say it’s impossible Beryl reattains c4 (though I don’t think it’s very likely at this point) but if it did it’s pressure would be a good deal lower

[IcyTundra]

I remember Levi saying in his update today that there is a ridge in the eastern gulf that will help determine the eastern most possible tracks. I think SW Louisiana is a stretch at this point but Beryl just loves to prove people wrong,

[zzzh]

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

[underthwx]

I looked at Houston/Galveston forecast discussion...last update was 4 am...which tells me it's like weather limbo...waitin fir all the ingredients to come together....this is a bit from the forecast discussion..."A lot can change with our forecast depending on where Beryl decides
to go, how strong she gets and how fast she moves, so stay tuned for
future updates.".....that to me is info enuff....they have a difficult job....bc it affects alot of people...industry...everything...

[IcyTundra]

New NHC forecast. Landfall in Corpus Christi but the discussion mentions that further shifts north are likely later tonight.

[zzzh]

NHC thinks the MLC (at the convection center) is decoupled from LLC, thus keeps the original near term forecast.

[ColdFusion]

The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

[ROCK]

4PM cone inched up some as expected.....I think it has a few more inching to do to include LA tonight...

[UTSARoadrunner4]

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

72+ hours in hot bath water?!? Button up Texas, this is our year, and this isn’t looking good at all.

[tolakram]

I think it's safe to say Houston is now IN the cone and on the bad side of the storm, especially if it gets stronger near the coast, which seems to be happening more often than not lately.

[cycloneye]

About the intensity:

The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.

[ROCK]

4PM cone inched up some as expected.....I think it has a few more inching to do to include LA tonight...

[GCANE]

Seeing some high CAPE air inland Mexico just south of the Rio Grande.
Could ignite some convection. Debris would flow into the ULL and start to degrade it if the convection fires.
It would be a long process but may be enough time for Beryl to take advantage.

[zzzh]

Recon should be there in about 1h. We'll see if the LLC is under the convective blob or not.

[Stormgodess]

The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

Sincere question.

If the latest forecast track lies west of the various consensus models, and even say it may be necessary to adjust it tonight... why wouldn't they go ahead and adjust it now?

[IcyTundra]

The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

Sincere question.

If the latest forecast track lies west of the various consensus models, and even say it may be necessary to adjust it tonight... why wouldn't they go ahead and adjust it now?

NHC doesn't like to shift the track too much in 1 advisory. They prefer to slowly shift their track.

[jaguars_22]

Maybe they don’t know what to do either?!!!! Where is wxman??

[Hurrilurker]

One thing is looking like a near certainty: parts of Texas are going to get a lot of rain and there's going to be flooding. Cue Stevie Ray Vaughan.

[Stormcenter]

It’s still moving WNW…..I need to go to my eye doctor then if that’s the case.