ATL: BERYL - Models

[Stratton23]

crimi481 no, florida is completely safe, absolutely zero chance of a landfall their, the high is currently over florida, the storm may be moving a little north, but eventually its going to turn to the west before a more NW movement begins, florida is safe

[Frank P]

ICON has been basically forecasting this for some time. no surprise to me and 967 mb is quite the storm, on the cusp of a CAT 3, and with Beryl's history of having a higher pressure and lower wind intensities I would image a Cat 3 would be in the cards if this comes to fruition

agree...this model is so persistent...I don't think I have ever seen a model do this without some wild windshield wiper swings. I didn't some research on it between work and it is ran off some EURO parameters which was interesting.

Yeah I knew it ran off some EURO perimeters but for this hurricane it's been way better than the EURO thus far... heck it's been better than all the other models... at least up to this moment

[LadyBug72]

My concern is evacuations if they are needed. So many people flock to the beaches for 4th of July. I worry about the added traffic. Not to mention being able to call evacuations in time.

[ROCK]

My concern is evacuations if they are needed. So many people flock to the beaches for 4th of July. I worry about the added traffic. Not to mention being able to call evacuations in time.

I am sure officials are watching and will make the call sooner rather than later. Especially if that cone creeps up into a highly populated area like Galveston tonight. Gives you 48hrs to get out of coastal sections. Everyone on the coast should be prepped every year for this. Way of life. Inland you hunker down and hope you don't take the eye wall or a nasty EF0 rain wrapped tornado. Not to be graphic...

[IcyTundra]

GFS looks like it intialized too far west.

[Nederlander]

GFS looks like it intialized to far west.

This is becoming a real problem

[Nederlander]

GFS down to 982 approaching TX coast near Corpus Christi. Maybe a slight nudge East.

[galvbay]

My concern is evacuations if they are needed. So many people flock to the beaches for 4th of July. I worry about the added traffic. Not to mention being able to call evacuations in time.

I am sure officials are watching and will make the call sooner rather than later. Especially if that cone creeps up into a highly populated area like Galveston tonight. Gives you 48hrs to get out of coastal sections. Everyone on the coast should be prepped every year for this. Way of life. Inland you hunker down and hope you don't take the eye wall or a nasty EF0 rain wrapped tornado. Not to be graphic...

This ^^^^ x 100. Great post

[ROCK]

looked like it initialized no where near where the center as we see it. lol

[hurricane2025]

looked like it initialized no where near where the center as we see it. lol

Yeah it’s so bad

[Bimms]

I fully expect it to shift east. Still not sold on the Corpus area. Will wait and see, but will not be surprised to see a shift east. Some of the Houston Mets are also starting this and to prepare for potential hurricane conditions in the metro.

[ROCK]

18Z HMON and HWRF are running

[Frank P]

18Z HMON and HWRF are running

looks a tad to the NE at h18

[ROCK]

18Z HMON and HWRF are running

looks a tad to the NE at h18

HMON Initialized some degrees west from the recon fix.

[Edwards Limestone]

Globals need a complete overhaul with more human input and QC. This has been very embarrassing for them.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z HMON looks like it's about to smack Palacios.

[ColdMiser123]

Another big shift east on the 18z Euro - eastern part of the core now goes over Galveston.

[ROCK]

Another big shift east on the 18z Euro - eastern part of the core now goes over Galveston.

as expected...ICON is king...

[ColdMiser123]

[ROCK]

18Z HMON into Matagorda bay thats a right shift..