ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

This is not unreasonable to state anymore given current trends. Houston should be preparing for potential impacts given the uncertainty of future track.

[HoustonFrog]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

This is not unreasonable to state anymore given current trends. Houston should be preparing for potential impacts given the uncertainty of future track.

And we are potentially ~60 hours out with those hours over a holiday weekend

[aspen]

992mb from NOAA (so the actual pressure is likely a little higher), winds support 50 kt, and there’s a possible decoupling (recon center fix is slightly to the west of where the center appears based on satellite structure). Beryl took quite a hit.

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809355618685448540



 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1809354693740753124



 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809356952767447473

[Steve]

992mb from NOAA (so the actual pressure is likely a little higher), winds support 50 kt, and there’s a possible decoupling (recon center fix is slightly to the west of where the center appears based on satellite structure). Beryl took quite a hit.

That’s important because it could still be influenced by that shallower flow. NHC didn’t move the track all that much so they probably think they are somewhat close. 8 or 9 out of 10x we know with 72 hours and can get it to within about 50 miles one way or the other. Next 12 hours should shed some light on what’s yet to come.

[weeniepatrol]

Center fix at 21.4N 89.4W

[lolitx]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

Someone needs to remember that there are tons more people down here in the Hou/Gal area. Many vacationers down in Galveston and why aren't they being more aggressive with this asking people that they need to leave. We already know there will be a shift to the east. Thats a given. Very disappointed in local mets and models. I know the models can only spit out what they see but still.

[MississippiWx]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809355618685448540



 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1809354693740753124



 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809356952767447473

Yep. A slight tilt, but nothing that can’t be realigned quickly with a blow up of thunderstorms. Eric Webb’s point on center relocation will be important down the road.

[Michele B]

it is likely just a temporary north movement, beryl will have to turn west and then eventually NW eventually, the ridge adis extends into louisiana

Whatever that blob is rotating north of the actual center of the storm is making it appear to be moving northerly.

I'm not sure what that blob is...will it become the new CoC?

[ROCK]

I agree Steve...it aint decoupled by much though and will suck back under the next blow up..center relos always throw a kink in things...

[Nederlander]

it is likely just a temporary north movement, beryl will have to turn west and then eventually NW eventually, the ridge adis extends into louisiana

Whatever that blob is rotating north of the actual center of the storm is making it appear to be moving northerly.

I'm not sure what that blob is...will it become the new CoC?

No

[GalvestonDuck]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

Yes, it’s been rather quiet here about our chances for a storm, even at the larger institution on the Island.
Someone needs to remember that there are tons more people down here in the Hou/Gal area. Many vacationers down in Galveston and why aren't they being more aggressive with this asking people that they need to leave. We already know there will be a shift to the east. Thats a given. Very disappointed in local mets and models. I know the models can only spit out what they see but still.

[Michele B]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

Point being, that this is a holiday week-end, and there may be people who will be so busy enjoying their holiday week-end that they may NOT check out the news, etc. until sometime late Sunday, or even Monday, which doesn't give them much time to prepare for worst case scenario - should it come to that.

[tolakram]

[Michele B]

Nothing indicates a WNW movement. It’s not even close on radar (looks NNW) and visible (looks due N).

Ok.

So it's NOT just me

that is N or NNW at worse... geesh

What was it John Hope used to say about hurricanes and land interaction affecting direction?

Someone will remember...

[tolakram]

No new convection yet as the MLC spins away from the LLC. Recon says the LLC is over water now, otherwise I would have guessed still onshore.

[Sambucol2024]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

Did any of them talk about the intensity of the storm?

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

I want to see that LLC take total control of Beryl and not the MLC.... less chance for it to go more northly in lieu of westerly

[cheezyWXguy]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

Someone needs to remember that there are tons more people down here in the Hou/Gal area. Many vacationers down in Galveston and why aren't they being more aggressive with this asking people that they need to leave. We already know there will be a shift to the east. Thats a given. Very disappointed in local mets and models. I know the models can only spit out what they see but still.

Because if they panic, they cause the public to panic. When evacuations were given for hurricane Rita in 05, more people died in the evacuation than the storm itself. There’s also the chance that it doesn’t hit Houston. If they sound the alarms and it doesn’t happen, it could cause significant damage to their credibility for future events. When it comes to events like this involving highly populated areas, the execution and communication need to be at an almost unattainable level of quality. I don’t envy them.

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

I'm certainly no expert but that image sure makes it look like it is trying to get it back together.