ATL: BERYL - Models

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Tireman4
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1061 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:24 pm

ROCK wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Another big shift east on the 18z Euro - eastern part of the core now goes over Galveston.



as expected...ICON is king... :lol:


Do not forget the NAVY!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1062 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:28 pm




Cat1 aint that bad if you miss all the rinky dink EF0....I think the derecho that went thru there a few months ago would be similar. I just don't want no high end cat 2 or 3...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1063 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:29 pm

18zHWRF h48 still NE of 12z, looks like a NNWish motion
Last edited by Frank P on Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1064 Postby Stormgodess » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:32 pm



Any chance of it skirting the coast from there? Or will it likely move inland then curve?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1065 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:38 pm

I'm completely disregarding the HAFS models they have not done well with Beryl at all. Seems like the HWRF has been doing the best out of the hurricane models.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1066 Postby ROCK » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:39 pm

Frank P wrote:18zHWRF h48 still NE of 12z, looks like a NNWish motion



that's a good deal right of the 12Z....I think the NHC moves this right next advisory with the EURO backing.

Similar spot as the HMON....
Last edited by ROCK on Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1067 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:40 pm



It seems that there is general consensus with models that this is going to be a mid-to-upper Texas coast problem now. Everything is gradually shifting towards the ICON solution :(
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1068 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:43 pm

18z HWRF big shift north

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1069 Postby Blinhart » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:44 pm

Looks like Corpus Christi will be the Western edge of the cone soon.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1070 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:47 pm

HWRF into Port O’Connor. Same place where Carla made landfall.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1071 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:49 pm

in a normal season a 971 mb is a strong Cat 2, but with Beryl's history all bets are off...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1072 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:56 pm

Image

Except for the 12Z run the HWRF has been steadily climbing north.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1073 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:58 pm

So for this to go into corpus now it needs to stay weak? Or is corpus safely eliminated? :)

I’m feeling better in Victoria
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1074 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:59 pm

Houston is one center reformation or “tugging” from being dead center of this track in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1075 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:00 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:So for this to go into corpus now it needs to stay weak? Or is corpus safely eliminated? :)

I’m feeling better in Victoria


Corpus not eliminated yet. Generally the weaker Beryl is the further south it should go.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1076 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:10 pm

18Z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1077 Postby HurricaneBrain » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:19 pm

That’s a pretty decent shift east from the Euro….
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1078 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:20 pm



Yeah, no thanks. I need some rain. If this goes in E of Matagorda I’m not gonna be a happy camper lol
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1079 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:23 pm



Oh no. Galveston / Houston on the strongest side.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#1080 Postby Stormlover70 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:43 pm

I did say Sabine pass. :double:
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