ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

No new convection yet as the MLC spins away from the LLC. Recon says the LLC is over water now, otherwise I would have guessed still onshore.

Marginal water temps for now…

[Stormgodess]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

Is that a new eye forming to the west of what we have been following as the center?

Or am I tripping? Because I have no clue what I'm talking about so I surely can be tripping

[Cpv17]

I’ve been out and about running errands all over the place and most people aren’t even talking about it and seem little concerned about it here southeast TX.

[tolakram]

Faster loop makes it easier to see. LLC is west of MLC I think, and you can see it near the end of the loop.

[Anti-freeze]

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

If Beryl hits east of Matagorda, I want to say that would be a long term prediction fail, but honestly I can't say that. I understand the logic of what the NHC has done, most of the models were off, it was still more than 3 days out, etc. They've been dang close on the track so far. And they have done an incredible job the last several years. There will always be problem anomaly storms.

But it does seem to be moving towards a process/communication partial fail. While I appreciate the honesty, when the 4 am, 10 am, and 4 pm all keep saying, "We may have to adjust the track further east in the next update", a lot of the public is going to respond with, "Why didn't you just move it further earlier? We don't care that you don't like to make major moves in any single update." And I don't care what the technical guidelines say, with the multiday riding the right edge of forecast and models, the continued models initialization errors to the left, and entering a holiday weekend, that hurricane watch should probably have been extended to Galveston at 4 pm, not waiting until 10 pm or tomorrow. Obviously I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just a weather idiot member of the public (although pay more attention than most), but I'd be shocked if it doesn't get extended to at least San Luis Pass at some point. Better safe than sorry.

The cone system continues to have some problems. It is the GOM in hurricane season, as a native Houstonian going back to before Debra, Galveston should have never been outside of a cone up to this point. Maybe leave the existing cone alone as a 'Probable' cone, but add a separate outside 'Possible' cone, that only narrows when a location falls below maybe a 1% chance of being hit. So when a long runner off of Africa approaches, the entire gulf coast starts out in the outer cone, scaling back as the storm proceeds and the NHC becomes near certain that a location will not be hit. Perhaps shade the 1% one color and add a another category (25%?) in another color? I could see pro's and con's of getting too complicated, but the current cone system needs tweaking.

And to be fair, the NHC put Houston in the edge of the cone yesterday. But if there was a 1% 'Possible' outer cone system, there would be a wider cone earlier in the timeline, which would help to get the public to take their location's potetial risk more seriously. Again, it's the GOM in hurricane system, better to establish a baseline risk for each storm and then incrementally roll back. Changes the typical public response of, "Oh, they say it's not coming here" to, "They haven't ruled it out yet."

Again, tons of respect to the NHC, they now have a great track record with a tough job. But maybe some room for improvement.

[Craters]

992mb from NOAA (so the actual pressure is likely a little higher), winds support 50 kt, and there’s a possible decoupling (recon center fix is slightly to the west of where the center appears based on satellite structure). Beryl took quite a hit.

That’s important because it could still be influenced by that shallower flow. NHC didn’t move the track all that much so they probably think they are somewhat close. 8 or 9 out of 10x we know with 72 hours and can get it to within about 50 miles one way or the other. Next 12 hours should shed some light on what’s yet to come.

Hey, Steve! Glad to see your sterling posts again!

Just for clarity, there, are you suggesting +/-50 miles cross-track or from the projected landfall point?

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

Is that a new eye forming to the west of what we have been following as the center?

Or am I tripping? Because I have no clue what I'm talking about so I surely can be tripping

Looked like an eye to me but I've been setting in front of this PC for too long.

[Craters]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

That is one enormous outflow boundary to the west...

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Crazy to see Louisiana in the cone.

[ColdFusion]

Now that we can see the LLC a little clearer, it appears that it's not as off track from the official NHC track as it appeared a couple of hours ago.

[Zonacane]

Beryl is still stacked. You'll know when it actually decouples

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Faster loop makes it easier to see. LLC is west of MLC I think, and you can see it near the end of the loop.

https://i.imgur.com/LOMY3QV.gif

Pretty close to where the NHC expected it. Starting to think those fellas might know what they are doing.

[ConvergenceZone]

992mb from NOAA (so the actual pressure is likely a little higher), winds support 50 kt, and there’s a possible decoupling (recon center fix is slightly to the west of where the center appears based on satellite structure). Beryl took quite a hit.

Yea I agree. It looks very ugly on satellite right now. Now I understand why it's going to take 24 to 36 hours to really do any type of strengthening. I think it will still be around 60 to 65 mph until around Sunday Morning and then we should start seeing some decent strengthening. The core should be rebuild by that time as well.

[Steve]

992mb from NOAA (so the actual pressure is likely a little higher), winds support 50 kt, and there’s a possible decoupling (recon center fix is slightly to the west of where the center appears based on satellite structure). Beryl took quite a hit.

That’s important because it could still be influenced by that shallower flow. NHC didn’t move the track all that much so they probably think they are somewhat close. 8 or 9 out of 10x we know with 72 hours and can get it to within about 50 miles one way or the other. Next 12 hours should shed some light on what’s yet to come.

Hey, Steve! Glad to see your sterling posts again!

Just for clarity, there, are you suggesting +/-50 miles cross-track or from the projected landfall point?

Hey Craters. Yeah. That’s what I was getting at. I think I joined here in 2002. We’ve all come a long way. But usually the board as a whole in conjunction with models and NHC will have the answers. Gotta ignore any location biases. But if the majority of people we trust are zeroed in on Morgan City, or High Island or Gulf Shores or wherever, it’s usually going to be close once within that 3 day period. I used 50 just as a point. We might be a little better or worse than that if someone could actually calculate that stuff. Looks like the NHC in 2022 was under 100 miles at 72 hours. So maybe we are a little rougher than them. But it’s still got to be pretty close.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

[Michele B]

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

If Beryl hits east of Matagorda, I want to say that would be a long term prediction fail, but honestly I can't say that. I understand the logic of what the NHC has done, most of the models were off, it was still more than 3 days out, etc. They've been dang close on the track so far. And they have done an incredible job the last several years. There will always be problem anomaly storms.

But it does seem to be moving towards a process/communication partial fail. While I appreciate the honesty, when the 4 am, 10 am, and 4 pm all keep saying, "We may have to adjust the track further east in the next update", a lot of the public is going to respond with, "Why didn't you just move it further earlier? We don't care that you don't like to make major moves in any single update." And I don't care what the technical guidelines say, with the multiday riding the right edge of forecast and models, the continued models initialization errors to the left, and entering a holiday weekend, that hurricane watch should probably have been extended to Galveston at 4 pm, not waiting until 10 pm or tomorrow. Obviously I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just a weather idiot member of the public (although pay more attention than most), but I'd be shocked if it doesn't get extended to at least San Luis Pass at some point. Better safe than sorry.

The cone system continues to have some problems. It is the GOM in hurricane season, as a native Houstonian going back to before Debra, Galveston should have never been outside of a cone up to this point. Maybe leave the existing cone alone as a 'Probable' cone, but add a separate outside 'Possible' cone, that only narrows when a location falls below maybe a 1% chance of being hit. So when a long runner off of Africa approaches, the entire gulf coast starts out in the outer cone, scaling back as the storm proceeds and the NHC becomes near certain that a location will not be hit. Perhaps shade the 1% one color and add a another category (25%?) in another color? I could see pro's and con's of getting too complicated, but the current cone system needs tweaking.

And to be fair, the NHC put Houston in the edge of the cone yesterday. But if there was a 1% 'Possible' outer cone system, there would be a wider cone earlier in the timeline, which would help to get the public to take their location's potetial risk more seriously. Again, it's the GOM in hurricane system, better to establish a baseline risk for each storm and then incrementally roll back. Changes the typical public response of, "Oh, they say it's not coming here" to, "They haven't ruled it out yet."

Again, tons of respect to the NHC, they now have a great track record with a tough job. But maybe some room for improvement.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, Anti...

I think the problem came in with the "experts" putting out a 5-7 day out track.

So it seems some people were "married" to the original cone and tracks.

I went back and looked at the track forecast last Friday, June 26. It was very sharply heading west into Mexico and NOT into Texas AT ALL.

Somehow, everyone has been reluctant to move the cone and therefore the track further north, till NOW. I'm not sure if the fault lies with our system and people believing that what was forecast 7 days ago should stand as gospel. Maybe there's no fault to be given, it's just that once a cone is laid down, everyone just assumes it's got to be there way. It's going to do what "the cone" says....even if the cone does need to be adjusted days later....people seem to be reluctant to accept those changes, or maybe even to MAKE those changes.

I don't have a solution for this, other than to NOT make a week-long forecast. But that seems to be what everyone wants now. "Where will it be 10 days from now?"

[Blinhart]

The problem is the shape of Texas' Coast, a movement of 50 miles East is well over 100 miles North, so that is why it is so misleading and they need to figure out some way to get the people more notice.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/MsmjZx0.gif

Recon is finding a pretty well defined pressure gradient at the lower levels that are visible.
And the moisture content just a little further into the gulf is high at all levels.
The dry lower levels are still on track and even the shallow steering model shifts more northerly and keeps Beryl offshore beyond 24 hours.

[Frank P]

Nimbus
The dry lower levels are still on track and even the shallow steering model shifts more northerly and keeps Beryl offshore beyond 24 hours.

What does this mean exactly?

[tolakram]

MLC is fading. We've been here before, and I swear usually a hot tower fired around the LLC just at or after sunset. Emergence timing is everything, but will it happen again?

[MississippiWx]

MLC is fading. We've been here before, and I swear usually a hot tower fired around the LLC just at or after sunset. Emergence timing is everything, but will it happen again?

https://i.imgur.com/4SSFLNd.gif

Diurnal cycle will likely help tonight.