ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

So are people expecting an eastward shift in the cone? Putting NOLA in the cone?

I'm not. But depending on what happens inland we could be under feeder bands straight out the Gulf eventually. Like I said in Models thread, it's flash flooding here tonight almost out of nowhere. So however that Gulf moisture feed lines up, someone is going to be under that for a while until the system hooks. Just be prepared to deal with a few inches of rainfall. And that could be anywhere from Lake Charles to southern Mississippi. Fortunately as South Texas said today, it's not going to lollygag all that much. But there can still be several hours of consistent tropical rainfall over the area underneath. Some of the rainfall estimates on the global models were showing that at 12z today.

[wxman22]

I fully expect Beryl’s impact to be much more substantial than is currently projected for those of us here in Southwest Louisiana. I do think the core will make landfall in Texas, but given the trends we’ve seen today, I think it’ll be close enough to the border for us to experience a good bit of wind, rain, possibly even some surge.

Not so sure about that, Beryls core is pretty small, for example hypothetically speaking IF the storm took the current track the NHC has for it, even Houston wouldn't see tropical storm force winds.But I am expecting the track to nudge further east though than where its at currently.

[jasons2k]

Looks like my Corpus call may have been too conservative. Still don’t think this would go in east of Galveston though.

[aspen]

Tomorrow’s going to be a critical day for determining Beryl’s landfall intensity. It’s pretty anemic right now and very vulnerable to the nearby dry air and ULL. How it tries to recover over the next 24 hours will determine how strong it can feasibly get by landfall on Monday morning. If it remains disheveled all day and doesn’t make much of a comeback, then probably “just” a strong TS or C1 at landfall. If we see significant improvements by the end of the day, then TX should be worried about a MH landfall.

I think the 12z and 18z HWRF runs are the most believable outcome: slow recovery tomorrow into Sunday, with last-minute organization into a C1 or weak C2 by Monday morning. Maybe something like Hanna ‘20, but further north.

[ROCK]

So are people expecting an eastward shift in the cone? Putting NOLA in the cone?[/quote

Idk about all the way to NOLA but I wouldn’t be surprised if TX LA border got in the cone at some point if these right shifts continue.

Meant 3 day cone lol…
SW Louisiana is already in the cone, and more than just the border.

Meant 3 day cone with TX LA border included lol

[wx98]

New NHC track will landfall *just* west of Port O’Connor/Indianola. Another shift east with this advisory.

[ROCK]

New NHC track will landfall *just* west of Port O’Connor/Indianola. Another shift east with this advisory.

Waiting for it lol

[Woofde]

Beryl is definitely a little hungover after a long day at the Yucatan. It being back over water now should begin to stop the weakening. It's firing some weak convection now, which is more than nothing. Current water temps are definitely going to hamper any fast reintesification. That said, there is plenty of rocket fuel once it goes a little further north. If we end up on the Eastern side of the cone, there will be plenty of time for it to make a run. If it stays "on track" with what models are expecting now, then a Cat 1 or close in strength seems reasonable.

Made the decision and got my tickets, I'll be there for Beryl.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Matagorda County has issued a voluntary evacuation order for coastal communities. That includes Sargent, Matagorda, and Palacios.

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/hurricane/matagorda-county-texas-voluntary-evacuation-beryl/285-c8658cf7-03d6-4e65-9752-e684f14aa86e

[Cpv17]

Matagorda County has issued a voluntary evacuation order for coastal communities. That includes Sargent, Matagorda, and Palacios.

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/hurricane/matagorda-county-texas-voluntary-evacuation-beryl/285-c8658cf7-03d6-4e65-9752-e684f14aa86e

It might even end up going E of there.

[HurricaneBelle]

Virtually all the models call for Beryl to not do much restrengthening over the next 24 hours, so unless it just totally falls apart nobody should be surprised.

[CronkPSU]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.

Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.9N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 25.0N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.2N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 31.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 33.9N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[canebeard]

On satellite, it looks like Beryl recently crashed into a bunch of Pyramids.

[Charleswachal]

Eastward expansion of the Hurricane Watches. Houston metro area is now directly north of coastline that is under a hurricane watch.

[cheezyWXguy]

Virtually all the models call for Beryl to not do much restrengthening over the next 24 hours, so unless it just totally falls apart nobody should be surprised.

Strongly agree. We’ve seen this dozens of times before, they always look like crap for 12-24hr minimum before magically rebounding. I remember Delta 2020 taking a less severe hit from the Yucatán and still taking 24 hours to start reintensifying. I worry that if dmax doesn’t immediately breathe some life back into this thing tonight people will let their guard down on it

[captainbarbossa19]

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.

This is not a term you want to read when you have a hurricane forecasted preparing to make landfall.

[ROCK]

extended to High island...I was thinking further to Sabine. Guess we will see over night how that pans out.

[sphelps8681]

extended to High island...I was thinking further to Sabine. Guess we will see over night how that pans out.

I am about an hour from High Island. Still very close and think that Sabine should feel impacts. What model if I may ask.

[butch]

extended to High island...I was thinking further to Sabine. Guess we will see over night how that pans out.

Yea Rock, I was thinking the same. When we wake up, I think storm surge watch extends to Sabine and hurricane watch extends to High Island if not more easterly. Could be warnings instead as well.

[Nederlander]

Did the NHC just say the GFS has had the best performance with Beryl? That’s very hard to believe