ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pipelines182]

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

[Horn1991]

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

Yep, looks horrible.

[Steve]

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

I'd lay you odds we aren't dealing with a wave though

[Stratton23]

Pipelines182 its not going to be a wave in 3 days lol

[captainbarbossa19]

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

I'd lay you odds we aren't dealing with a wave though

A new center will mean a new track potentially. Ugh can Beryl just go away already?

[IcyTundra]

It's probably looking a little worse than expected but it still has 2+ days over the Gulf to get going. I Expect most of the strengthening in the final 24 hours before landfall. Anything from a TS to a Cat 3 is possible imo with Cat 1 or 2 as the most likely outcome imo.

[HurricaneBrain]

I don’t think anyone expected her to look great tonight… still a ways to go until she reaches those warmer waters a little further north.

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

Yep, looks horrible.

[LARanger]

[size=150]In addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the coast, which could aid in the intensification process.

This is not a term you want to read when you have a hurricane forecasted preparing to make landfall.

I agree, but that's primarily because, despite a respectable vocabulary, I don’t know what the frak "diffluent" means, especially in context. Confluence I could figure out, but diffluence is a new one.

Merriam-Webster says "characterized by mushiness or deliquescence". Crap, now there's another word to look up. Something about melting and falling apart, or generally losing structure.

So basically it sounds like a shear-free environment, correct?

[sphelps8681]

I don’t think anyone expected her to look great tonight… still a ways to go until she reaches those warmer waters a little further north.

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

Yep, looks horrible.

I know someone else gave it 100+ miles from exit and we would see a change. Locals are not on board with this thing not being so bad. To me being a novice Beryl has time regain to a degree.

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm update on Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSTbZwvx_Q4

[MGC]

Beryl is a train wreck. Circulation is quite tilted perhaps even decoupled....so any intensification should be slow. Cone is only about 75 miles to my NW......MGC

[vbhoutex]

That ULL is degrading faster than I would have thought.
CAPE is through the roof in the GoM.
I got a bad feeling about this.

I was hoping the ULL would hold stronger and the dry air might be entrained more!! UGH!! I may end up with the core going right over my home. Since we are well inland and in a stronger than most home with a whole house generator we should be ok.

[LARanger]

Did the NHC just say the GFS has had the best performance with Beryl? That’s very hard to believe

I'd have agreed, but there's objective data supporting . . .

[storm_in_a_teacup]

The hurricane watches keep extending up the coast…I’m actually in Houston now, visiting my family.

I really hope this isn’t a big wind event for Houston. We weathered Ike and we weathered Harvey just fine. I went down to Galveston after Ike and saw what storm surge can do. We’re far inland enough that surge is not a problem. We also have never flooded, not even in Harvey.

But high winds? I don’t know what to expect. I don’t want my mommy to be crushed by a tree

[cheezyWXguy]

[size=150]In addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the coast, which could aid in the intensification process.

This is not a term you want to read when you have a hurricane forecasted preparing to make landfall.

I agree, but that's primarily because, despite a respectable vocabulary, I don’t know what the frak "diffluent" means, especially in context. Confluence I could figure out, but diffluence is a new one.

Merriam-Webster says "characterized by mushiness or deliquescence". Crap, now there's another word to look up. Something about melting and falling apart, or generally losing structure.

So basically it sounds like a shear-free environment, correct?

In this context, diffluent means spreading out in different directions, opposite of confluence, referring to upper level winds. Diffluent winds in the upper levels are favorable for strengthening because they aid ventilation and outflow for the storm

[AtlanticWind]

Beryls small size and decent shear did not help it handle its time over the
Yucatan,but it should start it’s recovery Sunday
The question is how fast it will get its act together
Still a lot of possibilities on the table.

[utweather]

Beryl has completely decoupled, LLC is heading SSW according to recon. Beryl will either form a new center or turn into an open wave. We could be dealing with anything but a wave to a major hurricane in three days, talk about uncertainty.

Yeah it didnt increase in strength today because the Yucatan is flat like Florida, but I am curious what this "Texas July trough" does with it. I think it will just enhance the rainfall and that Brownsville is still in play. But the models have shifted so I could ikely be wrong.

[tolakram]

Very close to naked.

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

Didn't expect her to look this ugly from the Yucatan and slight wind shear. However I can see the center relocating to the MLC if it gets strong enough to get down the surface, then I can see this get some RI for the next 48 - 90 hours while over the GoM, since they are expecting it to slow down from now until landfall.

[sphelps8681]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

But was it not expected after exiting the Yucatan?