ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

from the 4am CDT advisory:

After the significant
rightward shifts in the track guidance over the past day or so, the
latest cycle has come into better agreement very near the previous
NHC forecast track. In fact, the latest forecast track is very close
to the prior forecast, roughly between the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts. This track also splits the difference between the
reliable TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it should be noted
that there still remains a fair amount of across-track spread in the
latest ECMWF ensemble guidance at the time Beryl is forecast to make
landfall in Texas on Monday.

[GCANE]

LLC should be at about 22.1N 91.2W.
With the convection to the west of that and traveling in a CCW direction, she is definitely trying to cut thru the thick dry air.
It does show a high lapse rate / strong updraft is present.
She has a lot of unstable air to feed from and possible moist air from the EPAC in the near future.
Most of Mexico is convectively inhibited now. That could break this afternoon and may help to weaken the ULL.
The PV ring structure is breaking up, so possibility of rapid strengthening has diminished from that perspective.
We'll see how it plays out today.

[Clearcloudz]

I feel we as a society have not learned from past hurricanes targeting major cities. I'm starting to see PRO METS on TV showing single runs of models targeting Houston area with 100 MPH winds and possibly will create a panic this weekend in a major city. Sure Houston could get a direct hit but there have been many storms in the past that looked like it would hit Houston and forecasting changed at the last moment. Allow models to settle down a little and trends one way can always shift back going the other way we have seen this with many storms in the past.

[txag2005]

It sounds like Beryl is expected to be weak for the next 24 hours or so, but I'm hoping the storm struggles more than expected and we end up with a weak TS at best.

I'm fully expecting Beryl to intensify as expected tomorrow, but it's nice to hope that won't happen.

[GCANE]

So, it looks like the EPAC feed will kick in when she is close to the coast.
If she stalls then, or runs more up the coast, strengthening becomes more likely.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809522549518115314

[Nimbus]

So, it looks like the EPAC feed will kick in when she is close to the coast.
If she stalls then, or runs more up the coast, strengthening becomes more likely.

We are waiting for recon to give us a hint about a forward speed slowdown.
Beryl performed just as predicted in the dry shear chasing the ULL WNW overnight.
If she were to go stationary or slow more than forecast the ULL will not be a shear issue after today.
Can'tfollow shallow steering into the shear if she isn't moving faster.

[drexas]

Nice convective blow up reasonably close to the LLC. Still a lot of shear at the moment but Beryl looks to be slowly improving to my eyes.

[drexas]

Latest recon eye drop also supports 998mb, which is down a little bit since the last flight.

[Frank P]

Nice convective blow up reasonably close to the LLC. Still a lot of shear at the moment but Beryl looks to be slowly improving to my eyes.

Change in IR over the past 4 hours.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

[Charleswachal]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

That thing with Beryl is that she is always been stronger than the models show.

[BobHarlem]

Caveat with intensity is that it probably wont make a run for it until sunday night or monday. Ie strengthening at landfall. I suspect today will be some downplaying it followed by "well just cat 1" tomorrow and a largely confusing message for the watch area. If a intensity run does happen late sunday or monday it could be ugly. Going to be a difficult call for local officials in texas. It being the 4th of july weekend doesn't help either.

[aspen]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

That thing with Beryl is that she is always been stronger than the models show.

Yeah but before the Yucatan, Beryl actually had a core structure. Now she’s basically starting from scratch in a less favorable environment than the initial RI phase, so recovery is gonna be very difficult and slow.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Now that Beryl is getting a favorable environment with shear and sea temps looks like she is trying to build out her centre.

Source - https://col.st/8QWr7

[xironman]

Per recon it looks like its puttering along at ~5KT

[Charleswachal]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

That thing with Beryl is that she is always been stronger than the models show.

Yeah but before the Yucatan, Beryl actually had a core structure. Now she’s basically starting from scratch in a less favorable environment than the initial RI phase, so recovery is gonna be very difficult and slow.

It's really going to be interesting today to see how quickly she reestablishes her inner core. I do know that it already appears that she's having some strong wind gusts at the surface and some redeveloping of the thunderstorm activity near the center. I go back to hurricane Humberto that developed all within 12 hours along the coast of Texas, which is a very favorable curve for developing tropical systems. All I'm saying is that they should not let their guard down along the coast and think that this is just going to be a tropical storm when in reality it could very well become a stronger hurricane than forecast. I think today is going to be a lot of people thinking it's no big deal until it blows back up tomorrow.

[xironman]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

That thing with Beryl is that she is always been stronger than the models show.

Yeah but before the Yucatan, Beryl actually had a core structure. Now she’s basically starting from scratch in a less favorable environment than the initial RI phase, so recovery is gonna be very difficult and slow.

I understand what you are saying, but given they way this storm has behaved we will have to see if it ages well.

[Kazmit]

Finally getting some convection over the center again. Now let's see if it doesn't get sheared off.