ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

To my semi-informed eye it looks like this could be the start of another unexpected RI

[Stormlover70]

glad recon is in there...997MB..I suspect that is the max we will see from here on out...lets see how low it gets.

Stay safe. Beryl has been full of surprises...

[Blinhart]

I'm thinking from Chocolate Bay to Port Aransas as a Cat 3 or 4 on Monday evening. She will be covering at least 1/2 the GoM soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It will be interesting to see if/how much the pressure falls in the next pass from recon

[Xyls]

So I'm going to do the doomcasting of the hurricane. Flame me if you want.

But let's assume that from here on out Beryl pulls a Harvey as Harvey was a tropical storm in this general vicinity before intensifying all the way to a 4 before striking Texas. And this thing goes into the Houston area. In this worst case scenario I could easily see Beryl going into top 5 most expensive hurricanes in US history. We just saw that derecho with 100 MPH winds in the Houston area not that long ago and that did between 5-8 billion dollars in damage and depending on how this turns out this could be a big potential cat risk to the US insurance system. Not to mention I don't consider building quality in Houston to be particularly good.

Last major wind event like Beryl could be might be Alicia 1983 and that was no laughing matter for the area.

[Pipelines182]

Judging from the last center fix, the LLC is moving into the convective burst that just occurred, odds are the core is getting stacked, not great.

[xironman]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

[Blinhart]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

https://i.imgur.com/gXBicVy.png

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

[jlauderdal]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

I think the intensity forecasts for Beryl have been off and I suspect they are off here too.

Intensity will dog us all season, more than usual. Intensity affects track, plenty of brain cells will be killed this season.

[Xyls]

Anyways, I'm gonna head off and go for a walk and we will see what Beryl's intensity looks like when I get back. As the Beryl saga continues.

[Steve]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

https://i.imgur.com/gXBicVy.png

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I feel like the odds for a 3 would be pretty low. You know it’s going to wrap close to the coast so chances are better than zero. I just don’t think a whole lot better. 2 looks like the upper intensity to me but even that would require a ton of energy to pull off. If the GFS/NHC verifies, maybe a mid or upper grade 1?

[Steve]

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

I think the intensity forecasts for Beryl have been off and I suspect they are off here too.

Intensity will dog us all season, more than usual. Intensity affects track, plenty of brain cells will be killed this season.

That’s gonna happen anyway. Haha. Can’t really tell from satellite if it’s stacked again but presumably the lower and middle centers are amidst that convection.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Stormlover70]

I have a feeling this year models will struggle with intensity more than anything.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Also of note from the visibles is that the weather and flow appears to be to the NNW.

[Tailgater33]

Pressure is dropping, plane isn’t to the center yet and we have 997mb

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

[Woofde]

~993mb extrap, that's a solid little drop.

[WaveBreaking]

~2 hours old