ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Recon is finding slightly lower pressures and evidence of an ongoing center relocation.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon is finding slightly lower pressures and evidence of an ongoing center relocation.

Yeah this is quite the development. 55-60kt FL winds just before hitting the center too. Inner core is quickly being rebuilt.

[ColdMiser123]

Plane now flying at 700 mb, so will need a dropsonde to confirm whether the apparent drop in surface pressure is real or not.

You can pretty clearly see the tilt in the LLC & MLC still as well - the extrapolated surface pressure reached its minimum before the low point in winds by about 0.2 degrees, so about 10 miles worth of tilt still exists between the LLC & MLC.

[hipshot]

Also of note from the visibles is that the weather and flow appears to be to the NNW.

The CDO is expanding too, and quickly!

[JtSmarts]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

I was looking at the advisories for Harvey this morning. It was a 30 kit depression on Wednesday Aug 23 at 10:00 am. A little over 2 days later by Friday Aug 25 at 2:00 pm, it had reached 105 kts. Not saying Beryl will do even close to the same, but you never know with a hot Gulf of Mexico.

[Woofde]

~993mb extrap, that's a solid little drop.

Maybe it's a short little pulse up, but if not that's ahead of schedule. HWRF for example wasn't expecting 993mb till 5pm tonight.

[xironman]

Unfortunately a live link. I would not want to load such a huge GIF on to the page. But an amazing three hours https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[MGC]

If Beryl can keep all that dry air out of its core I think it will start intensifying at a good clip today. Let see if the recent convective burst persists. I'm thinking landfall between Corpus and Port O'Conner as a 100mph Cat-2...MGC

[Category5Kaiju]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

I was looking at the advisories for Harvey this morning. It was a 30 kit depression on Wednesday Aug 23 at 10:00 am. A little over 2 days later by Friday Aug 25 at 2:00 pm, it had reached 105 kts. Not saying Beryl will do even close to the same, but you never know with a hot Gulf of Mexico.

One thing to be on the lookout for (and I've noticed this unique behavior with RIing storms such as Harvey, Otis, and June's version of Beryl in their early stages) is when the convective blob begins to spin. That's almost never a good sign.

[Blinhart]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

I remember everybody was watching that one storm chaser feed to watch the shed just fluctuate with each wind gust.

[wx98]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

https://i.imgur.com/gXBicVy.png

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

[Blinhart]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

https://i.imgur.com/gXBicVy.png

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

History and reading the discussions from many different people and NHC, since the NHC is not sure of their own forecast.

[wx98]

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

History and reading the discussions from many different people and NHC, since the NHC is not sure of their own forecast.

That’s not really scientific…

You mentioned in one post maybe a cat 3 or 4. I don’t see any basis for that being offered.

[mpic]

Will all the dry air south of Beryl inhibit it all that much since it's moving north? I know that question sounds stupid, it does to me, but a Houston news entity is giving the impresdion that it's a major factor with words like "struggle".

[Steve]

Yeah it would have needed more water time and less disruption to achieve those heights 98.

[Steve]

Will all the dry air south of Beryl inhibit it all that much since it's moving north? I know that question sounds stupid, it does to me, but a Houston news entity is giving the impresdion that it's a major factor with words like "struggle".

Maybe. We will watch the organization today. Sure it’s been struggling though will it? So far FV3 and ICON are bringing yall the action after landfall.

[Blinhart]

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

History and reading the discussions from many different people and NHC, since the NHC is not sure of their own forecast.

That’s not really scientific…

You mentioned in one post maybe a cat 3 or 4. I don’t see any basis for that being offered.

If I was -removed- I would be saying it will be a Cat 5 going into Vermillion Bay or Sabine Pass, since those 2 spots are a lot closer to where I live. This is what I am seeing, I have seen enough systems in the Gulf to know how they act, the NHC always has problems figuring out where these systems go in the GoM and we have seen that all the models have missed the intensity of this system by up to 3 categories at one time or another.

[Blinhart]

Yeah it would have needed more water time and less disruption to achieve those heights 98.

It will have plenty of water time, and the disruption has already started dying off, so there is no reason for it not to reach those heights.

[xironman]

Will all the dry air south of Beryl inhibit it all that much since it's moving north? I know that question sounds stupid, it does to me, but a Houston news entity is giving the impresdion that it's a major factor with words like "struggle".

At this point the position of the upper low is not driving it into the center anymore, so the storm is able to push back on it with it developing convection.

[tolakram]

Steady pressure.