ATL: BERYL - Models

[Steve]

GRAF is an interesting model. That’s IBM and NVDIA I think. I had higher hopes for it a few years ago when they announced it but I haven’t followed its progress since a couple early busts.

[ROCK]

GRAF is an interesting model. That’s IBM and NVDIA I think. I had higher hopes for it a few years ago when they announced it but I haven’t followed its progress since a couple early busts.

first I heard or it along with the FV3...I have been out of the game a while but thought this season I should freshen up a bit.

[Steve]

FV3 looks to be making a run for the central Texas coast. It doesn’t strengthen much but it’s still got the landfall interaction to go to see if it agrees with the always tricky intensification of storms hitting Texas. Takes it down to 995 which may be too high and why it’s where it is vs pulling north and strengthening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=36

[ROCK]

FV3 looks to be making a run for the central Texas coast. It doesn’t strengthen much but it’s still got the landfall interaction to go to see if it agrees with the always tricky intensification of storms hitting Texas. Takes it down to 995 which may be too high and why it’s where it is vs pulling north and strengthening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=36

yeah its about 997mb last recon pass...it is delayed a bit..I suspect 997MB will be the highest we see here on out which makes that GRAF model with intensity even more interesting.

[Steve]

GRAF is an interesting model. That’s IBM and NVDIA I think. I had higher hopes for it a few years ago when they announced it but I haven’t followed its progress since a couple early busts.

first I heard or it along with the FV3...I have been out of the game a while but thought this season I should freshen up a bit.

I want to say it was 2018 or 2019 IBM introduced it. It’s satellite predictive but is updated every hour or so with real time data. With NVDIA involved no doubt it has AI components. Read up a little on the FV3. It’s the future US mesoscale model. Some of that **** is overly technical but you can pick up some important tidbits. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/fv3/

[Steve]

FV3 has it coming in Matagorda Bay with the center on the west side of Houston ending up at 60 hours maybe around Cypress or The Woodlands.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=55

Looks like TS conditions for much of metro Houston and certainly some training as it lifts almost due north from landfal.

[Steve]

Next up is icon. It’s out to 6 hours and shows pressure at 999. Will it join the other models finally since it led them to Texas or will it insist on what its aways insisted on? Cool thing is we don’t have to wait long.

[tolakram]

I use FV3 for cloud forecasts, pretty accurate 6 to 12 hours in advance. Not sure about tropical cyclone accuracy.

[ROCK]

FV3 has it coming in Matagorda Bay with the center on the west side of Houston ending up at 60 hours maybe around Cypress or The Woodlands.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=55

Looks like TS conditions for much of metro Houston and certainly some training as it lifts almost due north from landfall.

yeah pretty much on this run...I really need this to get stacked and stop the center hopping around....models have a hard time with center relos..I dont think that 993MB was verified yet...if so that a big drop from the 997MB

[Steve]

Looks like SE TX again lifting north though it looks like it gets closer to down coast than prior runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=33

Need a few more plots to fill in.

[HurricaneBrain]

A little bit stronger (981mb) at landfall too.

Looks like SE TX again lifting north though it looks like it gets closer to down coast than prior runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=33

Need a few more plots to fill in.

[Nederlander]

ICON doesn’t get down to 994 until tomorrow morning, and we may already be lower than that.

[Steve]

Yeah. Strong pressure falls close to landfall. If it’s lower than progged it will be lower. Landfall is between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Should bring the Houston Metro the bulk of the system if the fade is slow.

[ROCK]

Yeah. Strong pressure falls close to landfall. If it’s lower than progged it will be lower. Landfall is between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Should bring the Houston Metro the bulk of the system if the fade is slow.

takes the east eyewall...as prior runs it very close to where it has always been for days.

[HurricaneBrain]

Decent east shift for GFS, near Matagorda Bay at landfall.

[Steve]

Decent east shift for GFS, near Matagorda Bay at landfall.

Also brings Houston under the eastern part of the circulation but passes a little farther west. Definitely looking like TS conditions there as this is 3 of 3 with slightly different landfall solutions. We’ll see if cmc and hurricanes agree.

[HurricaneBrain]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this is the eastern most Texas landfall by the GFS the past 5 days.

[Steve]

Canadian with the big pulse at landfall. Storm weighted heavily north and also east. Also looks to bring TS conditions to Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=42

[Steve]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this is the eastern most Texas landfall by the GFS the past 5 days.

Probably pretty close. You can run them all back for 7 or so days on Levi's site by changing the run if you wanted to be sure.

[Cpv17]

Canadian with the big pulse at landfall. Storm weighted heavily north and also east. Also looks to bring TS conditions to Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=42

Damn, that crushes me here in Wharton County.