ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Steady pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/jvq5W7J.png

Looks like she has started her turn towards the NW, just need to see when she will start her turn to the N to see where final landfall will be.

[aspen]

The NHC thinks the current convective burst will fade away due to dry air entrainment over the course of the day, which sort of aligns with what some hurricane model runs have been showing. Even the HWRF takes longer to build an inner core free of dry air intrusions.

[Steve]

Yeah it would have needed more water time and less disruption to achieve those heights 98.

It will have plenty of water time, and the disruption has already started dying off, so there is no reason for it not to reach those heights.

I was talking about when it reached the Yucatán. Had it not been disrupted it’s stronger and likely to take a more northern track. If it was decoupled it was going to Peter around for 8-10 hours which it did. It’s getting organized but depending on landfall place it’s probably somewhere from 38-44 hours to landfall. Storms have made runs in that period of time. And Beryl will probably make a decent run. But it’s July, not perfect MJO conditions but also not bad shear and water temps. If this was in another 6-8 weeks, I wouldn’t bet against what you’re saying.

[Category5Kaiju]

From what I know, dry air really becomes an issue if you have a sheared system. Can't remember if it was Mark Sudduth, Andy Hazelton, or somebody else who explained it, but I heard somewhere that part of the reason why Beryl survived in the MDR like that despite the dry air just to its north could in large be attributed to the very low wind shear around the storm.

[tolakram]

water vapor loop

[xironman]

Steady pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/jvq5W7J.png

I think the drop was off because of the tilt of the storm. They are running at 700mb. The LLC is probably 10 miles to the southeast.

"Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)"

[xironman]

From what I know, dry air really becomes an issue if you have a sheared system. Can't remember if it was Mark Sudduth, Andy Hazelton, or somebody else who explained it, but I heard somewhere that part of the reason why Beryl survived in the MDR like that despite the dry air just to its north could in large be attributed to the very low wind shear around the storm.

Derek Ortt did a long time ago.

[Texashawk]

Steady pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/jvq5W7J.png

So this is a good thing, right? Thought it might be starting to really drop the pressure, but while it’s still consolidating/stacking it can’t really do that?

[wx98]

Steady pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/jvq5W7J.png

So this is a good thing, right? Thought it might be starting to really drop the pressure, but while it’s still consolidating/stacking it can’t really do that?

Yes if the vertical alignment is off you won’t really see much in the way of pressure drops/intensification.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=4FpPjzTEt_w

[jabman98]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

Blue shed! That was crazy. Everyone was cheering for it. I think it ended up with three or four Twitter accounts. lol

Although conditions aren't the same as with Harvey (it's earlier in the season) it's similar and people in the Houston area are understandably nervous.

[Bimms]

Well beyond the cold pool north of the Yucatan. Only warmer going in.

https://i.imgur.com/gXBicVy.png

I'm still expecting that cone to move further East and the intensity to go up to at least 3.

I’m curious if you have any scientific reasoning for your statements? Sounds like a lot of -removed- going on here from several users?

Sure people get excited for storms, I will admit I'm also a little excited for it, that's just human nature. But to the other point you mentioned "scientific reasoning" is there really any scientific reasoning to explain the things that this storm has done so far. The reason I say that is because from all of the news I have been watching and the various forms I have been on including Storm2k and the mets on tv, they all have a common theme, this storm has done the unexpected, so from a scientific standpoint, there are no plausible explanations for some of the storms actions, sure case studies will be done after the fact and new data and algorithms will be fed into the models, but it's still a "guessing game" science is a tool, it is helpful, but is not 100% accurate, sometimes, you just go with your "gut" and at times your gut is more scientific and correct than any "model"...just my opinion

[aspen]

Starting to look like a dry tongue is attempting to work its way into Beryl’s reforming core. Levi said it’ll probably take a few attempts at convective bursts/wraps to fully mix out the dry air and form a core, which I agree with.

[ConvergenceZone]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

[Michele B]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

I remember everybody was watching that one storm chaser feed to watch the shed just fluctuate with each wind gust.

Yeah that blue shed was amazing! I would hunker down in it for a hurricane! I admit to watching it for hours.

[Michele B]

I remember when Harvey started to deepen it was crazy to believe, and when it hit and we were watching the blue shed (you had to be there) there were still people down casting the storm.

I have no idea what Beryl is going to do, but don't take your eye off it until it makes landfall and get ready to move if needed.

I remember everybody was watching that one storm chaser feed to watch the shed just fluctuate with each wind gust.

Yeah that blue shed was amazing! I would hunker down in it for a hurricane! I admit to watching it for hours.

[mpic]

As much as I didn't want this to hit land and affect people and animals, I'm so glad it didn't just go through the channel. Had it went through the channel I think we would be looking at a Cat 4 hurricane as opposed to a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope that it continues to struggle and maybe landfalls as a very minimal cat 1 cane worse case. The fact that the NHC hasn't make their usual statement about it being possibly much stronger than forecast just shows you how confident they are on it not getting much stronger.

Mirrored my thoughts! I'm just north of Houston in Montgomery County most people in my circle are expecting a little rain and not really preparing. I'm the opposite. Groceries and bottled water in May, run the freezer empty before June 1st and all I have to do now is tidy up the porch and a few odds/ends in the yard. I'm elderly so that has a lot to do with how much I can get done at the last minute.

[Horn1991]

Gonna be a long couple of days of "F5's", satellite and wobble watching.

Sidenote: Blue Shed is a great band name.

Back to the action.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl is looking more impressive on visible, mayyybe a nascent eye starting to appear. However, I am not convinced this will be successful. With dry air in close proximity to the storm, it’s possible that its improving inflow will ingest some dry air and halt the process. We’ve seen this with a number of storms in the past where a strengthening phase ultimately leads to a pulse down for this reason. If convection remains persistent into the overnight hours, I’d say it’s all systems go. But I’m skeptical that will be the case. Tomorrow will probably see more significant strengthening imo

[ROCK]

997 and they are not at the center yet...closing in though..

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